eagle51
10 Nov 2017
Re: Diluted price I wouldn't be too disappointed at the PI offer, Mike. Companies can't (and usually don't) rely on PIs to provide the finance for growth that's needed. There's always a lot of bellyaching goes on with PIs saying "why should institutions and large existing holders get offered shares at preferential prices while we're just ignored?". You got the answer to why they don't rely on PIs here.Existing PIs were offered only 10% on the same terms as the bigger players (at least they were offered the 10% - it doesn't often happen) but they failed to take up their allocation. Lots of assumptions were made about how oversubscribed the offer would be, brokers varied as to when elections had to made and the money put up and many bought at the price (close to £2) the MMs managed to fix the price down to after (imo) going naked short to provide the institutions with the shares they'd applied for but hadn't been allocated in the placing (which WAS oversubscribed). I'm not sure how they managed to square their books with some PIs buying at close to £2 - might be why the price is still so low ? I don't understand all the tricks they get up to).Anyway, it's just as well the institutions and some bigger holders stumped up the cash otherwise the whole thing would have been a flop. I prefer the judgement of this grouping to that of a lot of desperate small-time traders and holders who couldn't be bothered to do their bit to help raise the last £4m. Where there's a will there's a way - despite the brokers making life difficult PIs could easily have established how to participate in the offer.It's a bit ridiculous that the share price today is less than it was before the oil in Verbier was discovered. There are 12m more shares in issue now, but JOG has (near enough) £25m in the bank, millions of barrels of oil and is in a position to do whatever it reasonably wants to advance its cause.Who says the market is always right? In this case imo it almost certainly isn't - and that's because the short term price is determined by the actions of hordes of desperate two-bit short term day traders who don't know their proverbials from their elbows and understand even less. God, they must find life difficult.The price will eventually find the right level - it always does. When it does, imo It's unlikely to start with a 2GLALall imo/ dyor
Mikeclayton2
10 Nov 2017
Re: Diluted price Eagle51 - Thank you for your view and explanation, I now have a better understanding. I was disappointed at he undersubscription however it’s been pointed out that some had problems with their brokers.All that remains is to await the evaluation results and hopefully get a best case outcome.
eagle51
10 Nov 2017
Re: Diluted price I'm not sure they'll do it, Mike. JOG was set up as a producer, not an explorer. Money from investors has been raised throughout on this premise. I acknowledge the recent placing docs set out the reasons for raising the £20m but I don't see this as definitive.Verbier hasn't cost JOG anything (net) so far but the game changes from here. Had it not raised the cash to cover its share of the cost of the appraisal well (and the Cortina exploratory drill that will probably follow) JOG would have been in a weak negotiating position in the event it decided to offer for sale its 18% of Block P2170 to provide funds to acquire producing interests in the NS.First oil from Verbier (in the event of further appraisal producing the right results) is not expected before 2022 (target dates generally get extended). None of: (I) he infrastructure cost, (ii) the fact JOG would be dependent on Statoil (the operator) for the next 5 years for monetising a major asset and (iii) the timescale fits in with JOG's declared strategy and timescale. It's just as I see things - others may think differently.Note Mr Benitz's statement yesterday. What it doesn't say perhaps gives more food for thought than what it does."The Board and I would like to welcome our new shareholders and acknowledge the valuable support of our existing shareholders, and we look forward to delivering further value as we continue to pursue our production focused acquisition strategy in the UKCS."imo/dyor
TheDrewster
09 Nov 2017
Re: Open offer not fully subscribed explains the pull back. Those who'd oversubscribed expecting to be scaled back just got gifted 10-25% on the ones they couldn't afford to keep.
BBanker
09 Nov 2017
Re: Open offer Funds raised. Job done. The fact that existing shareholder did not subscribe fully for available stock was partly due to difficulty in buying into the company through various broking firms. With cash in place we can sit back and await an update on oil in place when hopefully the shares will resume a rising trend. We know the oil is there and with any luck further discoveries are on the cards. A very promising hold.
Mikeclayton2
09 Nov 2017
Open offer Only just over 92pc subscribed, that’s a surprise. I was expecting to be scaled back, just need to wait for this Verbier find to be fully quantified.
Mikeclayton2
09 Nov 2017
Re: Diluted price Eagle51 - to clarify, I assume Statoil will handle all the infrastructure, with JOG contributing 18pc. Since they don’t have that sort of money a further fund raising(or maybe debt) will be needed.Still happy to invest here, and just maybe the find will greater than 25 mil.
eagle51
09 Nov 2017
Re: Diluted price "The Verbier project is estimated at min 25 mil barrel and JOG has 18pc that’s 4.5mil barrels.Costs are estimated at 22 per barrel. I know Oil is currently circa 62 a barrel so if we take 4.5 mil times 40 we have 180mil"...........................you've forgotten the cost of the infrastructure to get it out, Mike. Perhaps a few hundred million?The oil JOG owns is worth whatever the current 'in the ground' price is when or if it's sold, which also takes into account quality, certainty and a host of other variables. We might be talking $5 or $6 per barrel? I'm guessing.JOG's still in a great position as I see things.............
Mikeclayton2
08 Nov 2017
Diluted price Current shares in issue 9.950,000 (@2.42) plus 12,000,000 (@200p) gives me about 219pWe will soon know the true answer but if there is serious demand 22,000,000 is not a lot of shares when you are sitting on an asset with a minimum value of 180 milHope my maths are good.
Mikeclayton2
07 Nov 2017
Re: OPEN OFFER Paitech- the RSN circular issued 24/10/17 clearly states latest time for application is 1pm tomorrow if your entitled contact the company and see if it can be arranged. Then bin iii, unless you have just been too slow to act yourself (the gap between 24/10 and 5/11 is rather large)Can’t see these going near 200p any time soon
Paitech
07 Nov 2017
Re: OPEN OFFER Mike,if you see the reply from iii on my request 2days back, clearly says they can't.I am always disappointed with iii if I have to deal with them...I am waiting to see how badly I get diluted...TaG
Mikeclayton2
07 Nov 2017
OPEN OFFER You can still apply provided you get your application to the company with a valid cheque before 1 pm 8th November 2017. 21 hours to go. It’s not impossible
moorlaner
07 Nov 2017
Re: Open offer? - reply from iii.. gutte... Halifax sent the offer out with no problems. Not impressed with III's service on this one. I wonder are there any other missing facilities you would normally get with other on line brokers ??
moonie2
07 Nov 2017
Re: Open offer? - reply from iii.. gutte... I'm with iii, and been following this thread. The RNS said it was a placing, and the 'open offer' bit was not there in the headline. I feel a bit let down, as if it was an open offer I would have applied for some. The RNS was badly written...
Mikeclayton2
06 Nov 2017
Re: Open offer? - reply from iii.. gutte... I deal through Selftrade (now equiniti) they notified me of the open offer on 25/10/2017 with a deadline of 01/11/2017. I sent a secure message immediately and they confirmed the application on 31/10/2017. As I’ve already said I don’t expect to get many, I expect it to be greatly oversubscribed. With less than 13mil shares in issue (before this 12mil issue) they are scarce any good news or large demand will cause them to shoot up. Look at today 480k of shares costing about 1mil and the move 10pc. All interesting stuff.
