eagle51
01 Dec 2017
Re: Open offer Mootlaner - the difference seems to be that the companies doing the deals had cash in the bank to do them. It's all very well JOG having 'in principle' RBL funding in place, but this will have led to constraints, with all potential deals having to meet tight criteria. Al least the time and money invested should have resulted in knowledge being gained on what it takes to get deals sealed. There's no pretending Verbier won't have been a material factor all along - the outcome for JOG was immense. There doesn't seem to me to be enough cash in the kitty for JOG to spend close to £20m getting Verbier further appraised after the CPR report on the sidetrack data is published (assuming it gets that far - there's still a risk Statoil, on further analysing the data won't view Verbier as commercial). JOG has told everyone throughout it isn't an explorer and if drilling an appraisal well, which is never certain to find what's expected and paying a full share of a first drill of Cortina isn't exploring, then I don't know what is. JOG was fully carried for the first well, although the sidetrack was a well-judged gamble at a cost of £700k.The order of play I'm hoping for - I'm probably miles out - is for JOG to sell its 18% of Licence P2170, based on the data in the CPR (if and when it's published - maybe before if there's a decent offer on the table) to an oil company with a declared exploration strategy, to which the stake would be far less material. The thought of JOG being tied to Statoil's boot laces for the next 5 years or more, at some point having to find 18% of the infrastructure cost and always at the whim of the OGA (or whatever replaces it if the Government changes in 2020, together with the uncertainties over Brexit and the fish woman in Scotland) when it comes to granting permissions fills me with horror. Surely JOG's directors must feel the same?With a lowest estimated worth of JOG's oil in P2170 assessed at £80m, a sale of JOG's 18% interest, when added to the £25m already in the kitty would instantly put JOG into the bottom range of the mid-caps, with a potential war chest of £100m+. It would then be very well placed to really start motoring on the production front. The present SP would look pretty silly at that point. Then again, we all know the short term price is determined by the 'don't knows and don't understands' - it would be amusing to see the scramble (too late) to get back in, in the unlikely event any of the above were to happen, perish the thought.Dream or reality? You decide - I'm just thinking out loud. I don't expect anyone to take any notice of my views - I certainly don't take any notice of theirs (with a limited number of exceptions). Most are around what the share price will be next Tuesday week at 3pm or 'why aren't the directors doing something about the share price'?. The way some people talk, anyone would think they were capable of running a business. GL
moorlaner
01 Dec 2017
Re: Open offer it's about time the much vaunted investment strategy is put into action. all I see is other firms investing in north sea assets , never jog.
eagle51
01 Dec 2017
Re: Open offer Well done on SQZ, Ripley. I make the shares worth more than £1 (DCF/NPV under a range of assumptions). Doesn't mean much (anything?) to short term thinkers. Long term holders don't own the moral high ground - we all trade in the same markets Supply and demand set the price.Patience is the key if the fundamentals and/or quality of management justify it - you got it in one!GL
Ripley94
30 Nov 2017
Re: Open offer Always a good time to get out when i buy in .... lolFell to 185p @ 3pm .Still i also have a big holding in SQZ 
that looked a bad pick a few years ago Patience
eagle51
30 Nov 2017
Re: RBD "A poster on LSE considers that RBD could be the next JOG - any thoughts?"...................yeah - whoever the poster is needs to see a psychiatrist.I.5bn shares in issue? Controlled by one person (Edelman)? Where are the experienced oil people with proven track records in the industry? Shall I go on? The biggest risk might be the company gets taken private when (if) it starts to perform. Retail investors take all the risks, a very few get all the rewards. It happened to me with Parseq, where a dominant CEO with 35% snaffled the future with a coupe of others after offering PIs the SP plus a bit. A couple of institutions which could have made things difficult caved in - they always doPanic setting in here. Good. It seems people who are fixated by short term price are incapable of looking beyond it - the money's always needed to jump into the next short-term winner - no wonder they struggle in life - dim-wittedness in action par excellence. None of the big holders is moving, except maybe to add a few (funds allowing). The 'don't knows and don't understands' determine today's share price. T'was always thus, but fundamentals win in the endThe following is an extract from the document supporting the recent placing:"Current management estimates for gross recoverable resources attributable to JOG across all of the P.2170 Licence prospects (Verbier, Cortina and Meribel) range from 70 MMboe in the low case to 273 MMboe in the upside case, which correspond to management estimates for net asset value to JOG of approximately £83.7 million in the low case (which assumes a subsea tie-back operation) to £400.5 million in the upside case (on a standalone production platform basis). In addition to confirming the presence of oil in the Verbier prospect, this discovery provides valuable information to help better understand the prospectivity of the P.2170 Licence area, which includes the Cortina prospect and the Meribel lead"..............................there's still risk involved until Verbier is declared: "commercial" but the consensus is it's highly likely to be - nearby fields have been prolific producers and the APIs all around are fine. It also seems likely initial estimates will have been conservative - they usually are. Shoudn't be too long before we find out (or at least get revised estimates in a CPR).Bottom line is that at 190p a share the whole company is valued by the market at less than half the bottom estimate of oil in P2170 - and this completely ignores cash of £25m+ that now represents more than half the company's market cap (ie its worth as reflected by the share price). Who sells at these prices?? Reasonable guesses might be: people with a low IQ; people who don't understand or people who are desperate for the money. Maybe there are better companies to invest in - like RBD for instance. The above said - Verbier isn't fully derisked - there may be no commercial oil at all in Verbier, Cortina and Meribel. Statoil JOG & CIECO are all clowns who misled us and wasted tens of millions of their and our money.Warren Buffett: “Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get” At least I had a good day with SQZ.
BOWOOD
30 Nov 2017
Re: RBD Yes I do agree but I think RBD is a different animal now as the management has changed. The Oil Man likes them so that can only be good. I'm into JOG and find the sp below the £2 level quite difficult to believe as here the Oil Man feels the potential is 5x the fund raise price. Also I feel the management at JOG will be keen to see the sp above the fund raise price as soon as possible. An update on our major investment could help.
Ripley94
30 Nov 2017
Re: RBD Bowood Thought the name sounded familiar i bought Adventis after some ramping on this site .Nearly lost the lot except the small amount now called RBD...... lolI do not understand how directors whose experience was in publishing magazines suddenly go into the oil business.I'm in the wrong game !!
Ripley94
30 Nov 2017
Re: Open offer First buy today @ 195p .. Always a good sign it will fall further ..lol
BOWOOD
30 Nov 2017
RBD A poster on LSE considers that RBD could be the next JOG - any thoughts?
Ripley94
28 Nov 2017
Re: Open offer 21-10-17Dropped back to OO. price of 200p
TheDrewster
14 Nov 2017
Re: Diluted price £20+ eagle?I think Malcys £10 is a little optimistic without additional drilling success, but £5 should be a doddle.Be lucky.
TheDrewster
14 Nov 2017
Re: New Shares Not guaranteed on 17th:"Please ensure you have cleared funds in your account by our deadline date. Subscribing holders should expect to receive their new shares around the 17th November 2017."
TheDrewster
14 Nov 2017
Re: New Shares 100% indeed. Chuffed to bits, though £50k tied up was more than I expected so may well have to sell some depending on Mrs Drewsters Christmas plans.Interesting that VOG was also under-subscribed and applicants (me too) got 100% over there as well.PPC could make it a hat-trick this week - which means that either PIs are truly short of cash, or I'm seeing opportunities others are not. Opportunities that don't come around very often in JOG's case.Be lucky.
Mikeclayton2
14 Nov 2017
Re: New Shares I use selftrade/equiniti and there is still no sign of the new shares I think they have until the 17th to deliver. Good to see a couple of decent institutional investors on board. Just need a quatitive update on Verbier.
admiralty12
14 Nov 2017
New Shares Has anyone actually got their shares yet or even had a note of allocation (I assume 100%)? RNS said the 10th for trading these new shares but not a squeak from my broker.
