Jersey Oil and Gas Live Discussion

Pro_S2009 23 Jul 2019

Jersey Oil and Gas - North Sea Oil Another director buy, this time at 185.5p levels. They know, as we all do, this is massively undervalued based on that now they own 100% of 104.5MMBO recoverable proven oil. Need to churn the weak holders out and allow profit taking before the next let upwards in the share price happens.

Pro_S2009 23 Jul 2019

Jersey Oil and Gas - North Sea Oil The current Market Cap (35m) is below Cash (13m) and Tax Losses Carried forward to use against future production(25m) totaling 38m GBP. Therefore we are below Cash and TL…and all the 104.5MMBO of proven oil is in the price for nothing. So the share price could double again today, and it will still be undervalued significantly. Thats how cheap it was and still is.

Pro_S2009 23 Jul 2019

Jersey Oil and Gas - North Sea Oil [link] …BP discovered Buchan the mid-1970s and production started in 1981, continuing until May 2017 when the Buchan Alpha platform no longer complied with the current Safety Case. By that point 148 MMbbl had been produced. Buchan has light 33.5° API oil with a low gas-oil ratio of (285 cf/bbl), and an estimated 80 MMbbl-plus could still be produced, according to Jersey’s estimate… .

Pro_S2009 22 Jul 2019

Jersey Oil and Gas - North Sea Oil IC Recap on the JOG news: investorschronicle.co.uk – 22 Jul 19 Jersey gushes higher on transformational licensing award The three blocks the UK North Sea-focused upstream oil and gas company has been awarded in the Oil and Gas Authority’s latest licensing round have major positive implications for the commercialisation of its acreage. Jersey gushes higher on transformational licensing award by Simon Thompson (JOG:137p), a UK North Sea-focused upstream oil and gas company that owns an 18 per cent interest in the P2170 licence (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d), Outer Moray Firth, which contains the Verbier oil discovery, has been awarded three blocks in UK Oil & Gas Authority’s 31st Supplementary Offshore Licensing Round. I anticipated this would happen when I reiterated my buy stance, at 63p, a couple of months ago(‘Share price catalysts on Jersey’s horizon’, 20 May 2019). Jersey’s share price has surged by 86 per cent on today’s licensing awards. That’s because it is a transformational development for the company and one that has prompted analyst Daniel Slater at house broker Arden Partners to almost double his target price from 230p to 450p based on a risked net asset value (NAV) estimate of 537p a share, using a US$65 a barrel long-term oil price. That’s because the acreage awarded to Jersey in the licensing round includes the Buchan oil field that was discovered by BP in the mid-1970s and came onstream in 1981. Production continued until May 2017, when the Buchan Alpha platform was no longer compliant with the current Safety Case, by which point a total of 148m barrels had been produced. Buchan oil is a light 33.5° API oil with a low gas-oil ratio (GOR) GOR (285 scf/bbl), a term that quantifies the amount of gas dissolved in the oil. Jersey estimates that over 80m barrels of recoverable oil volumes remain to be produced from the field. The field was not developed by previous owner, Repsol Sinopec, but is development ready. In addition, Jersey has been awarded 100 per cent working interests and ownership of Buchan Andrew, an undeveloped discovery above the main Devonian Buchan reservoir, and J2 Sgiath, an undeveloped discovery. These discoveries are estimated to have unrisked gross recoverable mean resources of 20m and 3m barrels, respectively, according to Jersey management and independent work completed by Rockflow Resources on behalf of the company. And here’s the really smart part of today’s announcement. Jersey has entered into a three month option agreement under which Equinor, the is operator of Verbier, has been granted an option over a 50 per cent equity interest in respect of the two blocks containing the Buchan oil field and J2 oil discovery. Should the option be exercised, Jersey will act as licence operator and Equinor will reimburse the company for its 50 per cent share of costs in relation to the licence applications. The plan is to submit a field development plan (FDP) to encompass initial redevelopment of Buchan (including new wells), followed by a tie-in with the nearby J2 discovery and Verbier. Subject to funding, first oil is targeted for 2024 and Jersey’s current net cash position of £15m (Arden estimate) should fund it through the FDP process depending on any further drilling that may occur on P2170. The point being that prior to these three awards, Jersey’s net share of the Verbier discovery was estimated at 4.5m barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Today’s awards add an estimated 105m boe of discovered resources net to Jersey, making this “the most significant event for the company since its inception”, says chief executive Andrew Benitz. I completely agree. Furthermore, Jersey’s interests in other blocks in the Greater Buchan Area hold in excess of 300m barrels of oil equivalent (boe) mean prospective resources. These include Jersey’s nearby Cortina prospect on the P2170 licence which has a minimum resource of 39m boe and a risked NAV of $25m (85p a share) based on Arden’s analysis. Importantly, Jersey’s management maintain their view that that Verbier is commercially viable at the lower end of the initial resource estimate of 25m to 130m barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Today’s licensing awards mean that progression of the Buchan development is likely to be highly supportive of the development of Verbier too, a field that Mr Slater at Arden attributes a risked value of $37m (125p a share) in his aforementioned risked NAV estimate of 537p (unrisked NAV estimate of 1,231p a share). In other words, although Jersey’s oil price surged this morning, the value in Verbier, Cortina and all the other Buchan oil fields are effectively in the price of just 69p a share given that Jersey’s net cash pile is estimated to be 68p a share. True, Jersey’s share price has been volatile this year and is stillthe laggard in my market beating 2019 Bargain Share Portfolio. However, the investment risk looks heavily skewed to the upside given the likelihood of a raft of positive news flow emerging in the next six months as the company makes progress on commercialising its acreage. That’s because Equinor can be expected to exercise its option on the Buchan Blocks before the end of October, thus improving the chances that the fields will be developed; a new competent person’s report should be filed in the fourth quarter this year; and we can expect a decision on the 2020 work programme onthe P2170 licence (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d), Outer Moray Firth, before the year-end, too. All of these announcements have potential to materially lower Jersey’s unwarranted 74 per cent share price discount to analysts’ risked NAV estimates. Strong buy.

Pro_S2009 22 Jul 2019

Jersey Oil and Gas - North Sea Oil Director buys now…one director buying 50K GBP worth of stock. This is still massively undervalued. Will be subject to a cheap takeover bid if it does not rise above 450p levels in the coming weeks and months.

Pro_S2009 22 Jul 2019

Jersey Oil and Gas - North Sea Oil A good read from Simon Thompson… investorschronicle.co.uk – 22 Jul 19 Jersey gushes higher on transformational licensing award The three blocks the UK North Sea-focused upstream oil and gas company has been awarded in the Oil and Gas Authority’s latest licensing round have major positive implications for the commercialisation of its acreage. .

Pro_S2009 22 Jul 2019

Jersey Oil and Gas - North Sea Oil Cash 13m GBP Tax losses carried forward 25m GBP Cash plus tax losses carried forward = 38m GBP Current market cap 23m GBP Current market cap below cash plus tax losses carried forward… Current oil of 104.5MMBO proven valued at… minus 15m GBP… LOL [link] …Jersey Oil and Gas also intends to leverage the £25m of tax losses gained by the company through the Reverse Take Over of Trap Oil in August 2015, through the successful acquisition of UK North Sea production assets…

Pro_S2009 22 Jul 2019

Jersey Oil and Gas - North Sea Oil Massive news today with the award of new licenses in the 31st SLR. Massively undervalued now…

Ripley94 22 Jul 2019

Open offer JOG… XXXXX This is the top gainer today up 51% to 110p . See i last looked early April wasn’t sure if i had them before looking here . In hindsight would of been a wise time to get back in @ 78p. Pleased for you eagle i hope you held .

alwaysabeliever 02 May 2019

Open offer Thanks Eagle. Certainly not extracting the Michael !! I’ll put it down to a change in medication Got to say after IQE’s most recent atrocious year end results I am more inclined to share some of your less than positive views. I’m amazed that so many institutions were prepared to invest heavily at £1.40 when it has become very clear that the company is so reliant on sales of smart phones. It was clear that sales would either decline or level out due to low cost sim only arrangements.

eagle51 02 May 2019

Open offer aab - I haven’t been active on ii since all the changes made their boards practically worthless. Great pity because the old format served its purpose well. Under the new rules, however, I do seem to get notified when someone directs something (usually abusive) towards me, so it was a pleasant surprise to sign in and find you hadn’t been abusive at all (Is there a sting in the tail?) or even taken the p*ss out of me for dropping a house or two on JOG. Many others have of course done so on another site I post on (where I’m about as popular as syphilis) not under the eagle banner, although I don’t hide the fact I posted a lot on ii at one time as e51. Anyway, to your question. I haven’t been following IQE for a while and was unaware Nelson had been filling his boots again. I think most people would be keen to exercise options at 1p a share when the price was 70x higher. There are a couple of interesting points to ponder, however… He hasn’t (yet?) announced he’s sold enough of his new shares to cover the tax liability arising on the exercise. Not quite sure why but in exercising the options when he did, it’s logical to conclude he must have thought the SP had bottomed. I can’t judge why the price is where it is. There are 790m shares in issue (can’t say how many 'in the money options remain unexercised which will swell the numbers further) so, at 80p, IQE has a market cap of about 640m. On a P/E of (say) 20 - which is a bit toppy imv, the Company would have to be generating net profit after tax of a bit over £30m a year to justify the 80p tag. Taking out all the ‘adjustments’, last year’s fully diluted earnings per share (a rough approximation to net profit after tax) were 0.12p - or about £9m in total. Cash generation from trading was weak. You already know that IQE’s future financial success is reliant on a few big customers, who aren’t keen to pay top prices to suppliers they know are dependent on them for their earnings. So it’s a long and not that profitable a road for IQE as I see things. There’s no doubt generally, however, that if IQE’s big customers do well, then so will IQE. But within boundaries because IQE has a high overheads base and a wide spread of products. Do you know if IQE supplies Huawei?? My personal view is that IQE is more reliant on sentiment than normal value measurements but it is well supported, which helps. Supply and demand sets share prices - nothing else. When more people want to buy than to sell the price will be strong, but watch out for signs of sentiment changing. It’s then that you need fundamentals as a backstop. imv they’re not that strong in IQE. Good luck - hope you do well.

alwaysabeliever 01 May 2019

Open offer Eagle51 what is your view on Nelson’s option take up of over 7m shares and the almost immediate substantial increase in the share price ? Apple’s result have clearly played a part in today’s current meaningful increase.

eagle51 12 Apr 2019

Open offer Possibly they did, aab but not intentionally. It’s difficult to know in advance what’s going on 12,000 ft below the seabed. Equinor is the operator of the P2170 licence in any event so the result delivered was down to them. As you say, oil & gas is a high risk sector and you have to be prepared to take the rough with the smooth. The idea is not to have all one’s eggs in the same basket and to take profits from time to time. JOG got me out of a hole in was in with Trap Oil and the shares I have (inc what I paid for about 1% of TRAP don’t owe me anything. It doesn’t make the failed appraisal drill (which should have been a penalty kick) feel any better but no-one died. I have never castigated IQE, which is a company that would have a great future in the hands of better and more honest people. I hope the share price recovers (for genuine reasons) if only for the sake of those who bought at prices Nelson and others were selling at without being frank about why. GL

alwaysabeliever 11 Apr 2019

Open offer You have castigated IQE for a long time whilst eulogising about the brilliance of JOG and its future potential as well as the wonderment of the directors !! I seem All I can say is thank goodness I ignored your ramblings and hype. Oil shares at this level are high risk dangerous territory. I was very lucky to make a decent return out of Desire Petroleum but my eventual view of that company left me with a very bad taste in my mouth. Would it be unreasonable to consider that JOG overstated their hand ?

Ripley94 07 Apr 2019

Open offer JOG… XXXXX Thank-you for that information eagle i guess you have to many to think of topping up . I see i was interested in it since 21st November 2016 at least . And bought some after the OO November 2017 Cornhill must of been involved … must off needed funds in May 2018 and took a little profit. That looked like a mistake until this week. Does winny still comment on it ?