sage in the hills
11 Oct 2017
Already back down from 400p to 300p .....i am still interested / missed 180p yesterday / but will still wait for much betterSAGE
admiralty12
11 Oct 2017
Re: Value Eagle, I don't think I have ever come across this wording in relation to an exploration well before.i would not really like to suggest any more than the obvious really; either it's just their way of giving the info or they think there is much more down there but the well is not optimum.Due to it's very nature a sidetrack may not be the optimum drill for an asset. So, more exploration? Very interesting times. I have worked for Statoil many times and they very simply the very best. I never found them to do or say anything which wasn't relevant to the job in hand.
eagle51
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value thanks for the response, admiralty.Interesting comment. May I quiz you on this in the morning as it's late?
admiralty12
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value Hi Eagle. I corrected my post re: $50 with the one just after.I understand that JOG is not an explorer. However my point really was that, as we saw with the original well, buying a piece an a field asset it not the same as realising it. You can be as direct as you want. I won't mind. As soon as the sidetrack was mentioned I bought more shares because, from my own experience, companies do not usually drill one unless they have a very good reason to. So I like to use my own practical knowledge and, where I can, others' too.For me, the important part of the Verbier update was this: "minimum proven recoverable volume in the immediate vicinity of the wellbore of 25 million barrels of oil equivalent"Immediate VicinityThat's a term worth reflecting on.Regards
eagle51
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value admiralty - you seem to be under the illusion JOG is an explorer, which it isn't. Nor does it ever want to be one. It has repeatedly stated this in many presentations and announcements since the outset - most recently in the RNS announcing the Verbier discovery:"Jersey Oil & Gas is a UK E&P Company focused on building a production focused company in the North Sea. The Company owns an 18 per cent. interest in the P.2170 licence, Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d, Inner Moray Firth. Statoil (U.K.) Limited owns a 70% interest and CIECO V&C (UK) Limited owns a 12% interest". The Company plans to build a production portfolio via acquisitions coinciding with the cyclical recovery in the oil price and the current opportune buying market in the North Sea. The Company is involved in multiple sales processes and intends to draw on its management team's considerable experience, knowledge and expertise to deliver shareholder value from its stated production acquisition strategy".A licence for Block P2170, which includes Verbier, Cortina and Meribel and is situated between Buchan and Tweedsmuir South in the Moray Firth (both significant producers for many years), was awarded to Trap Oil in the 28th Licensing Round. It was one of a number of mostly worthless licences JOG inherited when it effectively took over TRAP in Aug 2015. The deal was presented as a takeover of JOG (established in Jersey for a specific purpose some 6-12 months earlier) by TRAP, in order to preserve TRAP's £25m of tax losses (to which you also attribute no value). In fact JOG is still the old TRAP, which changed its name to JOG when the deal completed.P2170 was farmed out to Statoil in well-planned and executed exercise that left JOG in a winning position cash-wise, whether or not Statoil's drill hit oil. JOG 18% of which 10% was carried by Cieco, leaving an 8% exposure to costs) and Cieco were both carried by Statoil (which paid JOG $2m on the farm-in) for the first $25m of the drill costs. The rest you know about (or should do).I don't follow the logic in your 13.24 post. Ignoring the fact you have attributed no value to anything other than Verbier, why do you bring $50 oil into the equation. What has this got to do with anything?I'd have worked with something like:Mid estimate of Verbier GRR: 77.5MMboeJOG's share - 18%: 14MMboeJOG's M/C: £31m (10m shares @ 310p)Implied ppb: £2.21 (£31m/14MMboe)Implied ppb $2.92The way I see it, with Verbier's oil is reckoned (by a market that's valuing JOG as if it's a one trick pony) to be worth $2.92pb. My guess is that Statoil would pay more than this pb in - say - a take out of the P2170 licence because it doesn't want to share it with a company that isn't going to want to join in with an exploratory drill of Cortina, even if it could afford to. JOG could use the cash to good effect in pursuing its non-exploration strategy and Statoil could plough its own furrow. Cieco could carry on being Japanese. Everyone would be happy.imv JOG's shares are worth a lot more than they're currently trading at. That much seems obvious. Doesn't mean the price will reflect the value though, because very few do much research and most wouldn't understand it if they did. They're all just after a quick buck. Each of us is different.It's good to have someone from the industry on this board, admiralty. I hope you don't take my posts in the wrong way. I tend to be direct but try not to be too critical - my background is in business and accounting and I've been involved with a few oil companies over the years, learning (too late in some cases) over time about how the industry works. It will take some acquisitions for JOG's price to stabilise at fairer levels. Shouldn't be too long............imo/dyor
admiralty12
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value I was simply giving a very rough ball park figure of value to the current find, high and low. They also have cash in the bank. If you consider that the share price, before the find and after the initial duster was about 60p giving a MC of $6m with $4m cash in the bank then the other assets were not considered to be of huge value.The Cortina asset is now worth more, granted, but a rough per barrel value gives a clue to what they have.As regards goodwill, I personally don't go there with oil co's. They can be the best team in the world but that does not make them find oil, and it won't make the price of oil any better or worse. As someone who spent many many years working as an MWD engineer and Directional driller and who has been hired and fired more times than i care to think solely on the ups and downs of company's success or failures coupled with the price of oil, I leant that jam tomorrow is not as good as marmite today.
eagle51
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value You seem to be suggesting that JOG is a one trick pony not worth anything other than the oil in Verbier.How about Cortina and Meribel? And the goodwill that exists in the team of 11 that's been carefully put together specifically to allow JOG to achieve its stated objective, which is to become a medium sized NS producer, following the acquisition of a number of late-life interests in NS producing fields with good tie cack facilities and manageable decommissioning liabilities. They've looked at over 50 assets said to be for sale and seem likely to me to be at a point where it's only a matter of time until the first such acquisition is announced.People make the difference between companies that succeed and those that don't. Luck is involved, but not exclusively and usually not materially. JOG is worth a lot more than the sum of the tangible parts, as I believe will become clear relatively soon.dyor
admiralty12
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value I don't think that will be JOG's problem. Statoil is the operator. As regards time, apparently it could be mid 2018 but that was a guess from Malcy I think. These things take time.
BOWOOD
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value How long to get it out and at what cost?
admiralty12
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value Sorry it should be 34m market cap / 4.5 = 7.5$/barel
admiralty12
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value Indeed. The figures are calculated at 18%.25MBO @18% = 4.5m x $50/b(say) = $225m / market cap £34m = $6.6 / barrel
sage in the hills
10 Oct 2017
Re: Value admiralty12 .....but JOG only has an 18% stake in this ...does it not ? ...SAGE
admiralty12
09 Oct 2017
Value With the share price of £3.20 and 25MBOe, the JOG asset is valued at about $6.5 / Barrel. At the top end this falls to $1.5 / Barrel with a 130MBoe find.Interestingly, the share price is only back at a level seen before the first original drill and this only had a mid 20's% chance of success.
velocipede
09 Oct 2017
Re: sort your web site out iii Likewise ADVFN's site. All day JOG has been appearing and disappearing at the top of the leader board. Currently not showing there despite 470% rise on the day. Just slightly better than Grafenia in second with 24%. What's goin ' on 'ere?
BOWOOD
09 Oct 2017
AMED Worth a look if you take some profits here.
