gamesinvestor
02 Jun 2018
Re: Market Reactions HB - And then you get the press euphoria which is misleading at best :-[link] of the text :-"""""Pacing gains in Chemicals were shares in Johnson Matthey after the company revealed "break out" growth at its electric vehicle battery unit in its full-year results, published the day before."""""Break out growth lol! -- the sales went backwards -- good idea if they actually read the report before publishing.Games
Hardboy
02 Jun 2018
Market Reactions I conclude from observing markets over the years that the first day of a trading update of any sort often sees some swings during the day as markets make an initial reaction only for traders to think the reaction is overdone. However the next day, when brokers have all analysed and updated their recommendations and published their analysis for all to see, is often more telling. So I conclude that most brokers liked what they read yesterday. Whatever else is in the report, the fact that the BoDs say they expect growth of 5-10% next year gives investors confidence that the immediate future, at least, looks safe.
gamesinvestor
01 Jun 2018
Re: Free Cash Flow... ""The battery division did nothing -- "again" -- more jam tomorrow statements., in fact sales went backwards -- """Lower LFP sales led to a small sales decline""""Just to reiterate the position JMAT is in, whilst it's battery division went backward in 2017, Umicore experienced a 72% increase in it's battery sales division and significantly increased it's manufacturing of such in China and Korea :-– Earnings growth of 72%– € 300 million furtherexpansion of our batterymaterials production capacityin China and KoreaPerhaps it's time someone questioned the huge bonuses that someone on here indicated are likely to be awarding themselves.The stock is rising, against my expectations - I was wrong to assume it would start to dip yesterday - and today - but it's all predicated on the current CAT business, and a vague expectation of the next generation battery materials.Games
Hydrogen Economy
01 Jun 2018
Re: Finals I no longer hold JMAT but watch it with interest, so have the following observations. Numbers were mixed (some comment below), but the interest is understandably focused on batteries.The existing battery business Alternative Powertrain sales -7% CER “This primarily reflects changes in electric vehicle tax incentives in China which has led to increased substitution of LFP by high energy materials….we do not see a recovery in the near term”. Did they buy the LFP business as it was passing its peak? The UK battery business sold (7m Loss), eLNO will be the future. JM planning a big investment in a demo plant (1000 tpa, up from 500tpa which was flagged as 200m investment so I guess higher), but that is still not a commercial scale. Commercial sales expected around 2022, CEO on CNBC yesterday said production plant will be built in Europe. JM could win big but that’s quite a lot of ‘our customers tell us it’s great’ to swallow. Revenue up 17% looks good but7% for CER excluding precious metals which have risen significantly. Some sizable ‘one-offs’ flatter the adjusted numbers-£50 million Legal charge for resolution of a lawsuit related to a component supplied in US.-Restructuring and impairment charge of £90 m for redundancies and business or plant closures Current business is doing OK but is going to feel pressure of BEVs soon so really needs eLNO to be a success. If it is the potential is huge but it is far from certain that it will be the winner. If it is, would OEMs accept JM as the sole source, I guess not. This looks like a very high risk potential massive return / big loss. I’m inclined to wait until it hopefully becomes a lower risk /good return case, at which point I will gladly congratulate those with a higher risk appetite holding big profits. GLA H2
schwee
31 May 2018
Re: Finals When the annual report is published, expect to see the directors award themselves mega bonuses despite having lost the owners £50m through their incomptence over a contract.
II Editor
31 May 2018
NEW ARTICLE: A look under the bonnet of Johnson Matthey "Richard Hunter, Head of Markets at interactive investor, commented "There is a great deal going on under the bonnet at LSE:JMAT:Johnson Matthey, with its cash generative ability allowing further reinvestment into new technologies.The company is ..."[link]
Hardboy
31 May 2018
Re: Finals "yet profits as reported are down"Exactly what I was saying: but:"Underlying operating profit was flat at constant rates, impacted by the US post-retirement medical plan credit in the prior period. Excluding this, operating profit grew 4%"Reported profits down, underlying profits up.
gamesinvestor
31 May 2018
Free Cash Flow... took a dive :-"Free cash flow of £136 million (2016/17: £230 million) was impacted by the expected working capital outflow"ROCE is down -- "Return on invested capital (ROIC) decreased from 18.2% to 16.4%"The battery division did nothing -- "again" -- more jam tomorrow statements., in fact sales went backwards -- """Lower LFP sales led to a small sales decline""""Significant decline of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery materials was partially offset by strong growth in Fuel Cells and Medical Device Components""My feeling is they have lost the battery market and are not in a position to compensate for future significant falls in CAT sales -- which seems inevitable.maybe they have something with eLNO, but so far it's a story.The stock may dip negative today after the initial euphoria.Games
gamesinvestor
31 May 2018
Re: Finals yet profits as reported are down :-"Chemicals producer Johnson Matthey reported a 31% fall in annual profits due to restructuring and legal charges, though underlying profits were flat. The FTSE 100 group raised the dividend 7% as directors expressed confidence in prospects, including development of its eLNO next-generation battery material."Games
Hardboy
31 May 2018
Finals I need to spend a lot longer looking through these: especially working out the exact differences between the reported figures and the underlying figures. However the general tone is upbeat, forecasting operating performance for the current year to rise between 5 & 10% which s steady progress (though I've never seen "operating performance " as a line in the accounts - turnover or Operating profit would be more meaningful.) Debt is down, Pension deficit is down, sales in all divisions is up, dividend is up above inflation, so my initial reaction is positive, but I'll study further.
gamesinvestor
25 Apr 2018
New Life for Diesel - Bosch discovery [link] have discovered, via AI, a new way to reduce NOX to a 10th of current emmissions.What it means for the CAT and for JMAT I don't really know.However, if it obviates the need for a complex and / or and expensive CAT, then there isn't a lot of fun to be had a JMAT in the future.Games
Hardboy
10 Apr 2018
Re: Rapid reduction in Diesel.... It shows what some ill informed politicians and media bias can do. I can't be bothered to work it out, but I suspect full life cycle of a diesel engine provides less pollution than petrol (remembering they have significantly longer lives & the manufacturing process needs to be included) and that's before any measure are taken to reduce sulphur, nitrogen compounds and particulate emissions are made by the fuel or engine manufacturers. They have gone from acceptable to non-acceptable almost over night.And whilst diesel cars may be disappearing fast; diesel buses, lorry, trains, ships etc. are not going to vanish so quickly. Games - not sure I understand the stats you quote: "Diesel car sales in the UK declined by almost 40 per cent (37.1 per cent) in March "Is that New Car Sales or all car sales? I assume the former. "The market share for diesel cars has also fallen from 43.5 per cent to 32.4 per cent over the same period of time."Share of what market? It can't be new car sales (if the 1st stat referred to that) as the figures are different - the latter stat is a 25% fall. It would hardly be share of the on road vehicle force as it would not drop that much in a month. So share of what market?(You should go into politics - quoting headline grabbing stats without fully explaining them - a trait shared by most frontline politicians!)
gamesinvestor
09 Apr 2018
Rapid reduction in Diesel.... Are investors underestimating the fall off in the adoption and use of diesel engines.JMAT's business is very dependent on the sale of new diesel catalytic converters."""" Another major car company scraps diesel cars in the UKSUZUKI has announced it will be ditching diesel cars from its variants in the UK due to a lack of demand.Diesel cars suzukiGETTYSuzuki has announced that it will stop selling diesel cars in the UKDiesel car sales in the UK declined by almost 40 per cent (37.1 per cent) in March as motorists become increasingly more concerned with the fuel type and its longevity.The market share for diesel cars has also fallen from 43.5 per cent to 32.4 per cent over the same period of time.Last month Toyota announced that it would never sell diesel cars in Britain again from December.In addition to this Subaru announced that it would sell its existing stock of diesel but it would not be manufacturing any more.Now, Suzuki is joining the car makers turning its back on diesel.Diesel latest: New car sales PLUMMET as NO ONE wants to buy diesel ...Currently only one diesel engine is offered by the Japanese manufacturer - the 1.6-litre DDiS - on the Vitara and SX4 S-Cross.A Suzuki spokesman said: ”Due to very low demand for diesel engine models in the UK Suzuki range, the DDiS derivatives of Vitara and SX4 S-Cross for UK only have temporarily ceased production.”Just over 1,000 diesel units were sold by Suzuki in the UK last year and the choice to stop selling diesel is based purely on demand and nothing to do with emissions.Games
gamesinvestor
08 Mar 2018
Re: Self promotion ""In the short term I expect the car market go from petrol/diesel to hybrid to electric, rather than a straight move petrol/diesel to electric, which should be good for JM, as it encompasses best of both worlds.""HB - To a degree that's true, however, all (or the majority at least) of hybrids will be fitted with a small petrol engine. 60% of the JMAT business is CAT, of which the lion's share of the value is from the diesel contingent. The rapid decline of diesel is the real concern here and JMAT unfortunately is nowhere on the battery scene as far as making any real money.Not only that, the value of the small petrol engine CAT will also be falling in value (smaller engine = cheaper CAT) -- the whole of this division, which is the big profit generator, is likely to become stretched.The other issue that JMAT faces is the sheer number of workers and facilities it has for developing and manufacturing CATs, which will slowly become redundant, and will be expensive to offload, decommission.Toyota - world's biggest, and Subaru are completely scrapping diesel going forward.This is JMAT's biggest concern and it's not yet reflected in the share price at 3173 as I type.Games
Hardboy
15 Feb 2018
Re: Self promotion DWF,Thanks for posting that - excellent stuff there. Only had a quick glance at the last years report, but it confirms basically what I said. JM are producing catalysts for the fuel cell developers. These have been hard at work getting nowhere fast for decades, which presumably is why JM FC have been making a loss; but last year revenues were up over 50%; and if you look at the information flowing from the remaining Fuel cell developers then commercial units are very very close; and the market could explode over the next 5-10 years. And well done JM for believing in it.
