Gamesinvestor1
27 Jan 2020
BoA rating on JM Broker notes are all over the place on any stock and actually usually have little bearing on the direction of the company share price. These clowns issue all manner of buy-hold-outperform-inline-sell-blablabla. No analysis is usually given and they are hoping for the effect to move the stock - a bullish note often criminally issued to move stock prices upward to allow an exit of a held position. Not really much help methinks. Just as a guide to the futility of this, take a look at the FT forecast across 16 analysts. High - 4100 Medium - 3425 Low - 2065 a usefull 100% spread – get your dart board out and blindfold yourself and see what you get. Games
Gamesinvestor1
27 Jan 2020
Trump and environment Stutes – I can’t see it making much difference to be honest. Despite the holier than though approach to the environment on this side of the pond, they are all paying lip service to the environment anyway. In Europe, for every electric car sold people are now buying 37 SUVs of all categories of drive source. That means realistically. Everyone is moving to a bigger and heavier vehicle that will produce more CO2 – shock, what they are supposed to be cleaner? – well even the hybrids are measured to be less CO2 efficient than the latest EuroNCAP diesel models. Using more metal to build bigger and heavier cars Most of these vehicles are 30%+ bigger than their counterparts and are taking up more road space, traffic will inherently move slower due to congestion and more fuel will be burnt. JMAT is a pretty tricky one to forecast from here, because no one really knows the true future take up rate of battery driven only vehicles. If it takes off really fast then JMAT is in big trouble because 70+% of its business is dependent on CATs for either diesel or petrol. It is then doubtful that JMAT will be able to compensate for the value loss on each CAT with a supply of battery materials which will only be a bit part piece of the new puzzle. It wil also be more competitive and there is no guarantee tat eLNO will achieve the take up rate when the vast majority of electric cars are using the other battery technique (BetaMax or VHS perhaps?). I sold out at 3100 and took a profit after a fairly short term hold. It was pure freak that the virus has had today’s effect – does one buy back in? Well I did on IHGand Burberry, but not JMAT – not sure where to go with this one, so sitting on the fence. Games
stutes
27 Jan 2020
BoA rating on JM [link] Report lightweight, company needs to show broker is out of step with actual trading
stutes
24 Jan 2020
Trump and environment Trump is picking on California, car emission standards, rolling back on water standards. Till Trump is out of White House the environment is likely to be second best ?
stutes
23 Jan 2020
City and coronavirus How will coronavirus and any fallout affect JM businesses?
stutes
22 Jan 2020
31st Jan Brexit The politicians look set for gamesmanship ahead of Brexit da, trade talks. All leading to ups and downs on share price.
stutes
22 Jan 2020
Trump Trade spats BBC News - Trade tensions rise as US threatens car tariffs BBC News Trade tensions rise as US threatens car tariffs The US has warned it could taxing UK car exports if UK's tech tax goes ahead. Higher the basic price , the fewer the cars bought and everybody in supplier chain suffers? How will any trade spat affect JM?
stutes
22 Jan 2020
Trump Trade spats Trump’s Davos visitf and the reported have no option but to do a new trade deal - odd but there isn’t an old trade . Trump has targeted autos - JM could be hurt?
stutes
20 Jan 2020
31st Jan Brexit POLITICO – 21 Jun 16 Chemicals firm says it would quit Britain after Brexit Businesses are worried about a backlash against the UK. Will the above scenario become a reality and at what cost to shareholders?
stutes
20 Jan 2020
31st Jan Brexit JM have planned for Brexit but reports suggest BoE is set to reduce borrowing rate, HMG looking at spending to boost the economy, EV versus fossil fuel debate etc. In the above scenario will City mark shares down till the dust settles on Bresit, EU trade war with USA?
stutes
20 Jan 2020
Trump Trade spats In the last 12 months of Trump’s Presidency will he try to bully EU or engage in diplomacy to secure a trade deal with EU? I hope for the latter but think he will opt for the former.
stutes
16 Jan 2020
Trade talks USA & EU -RESET Mr Hogan concludes his 3 day visit to USA today; I wonder how President Trump will surprise us all over USA/EU trade spat? How will it affect JM’s business?
stutes
06 Jan 2020
Low car sales We also have Trump and his machinations re trade and foreign policy to affect prices
Gamesinvestor1
06 Jan 2020
Low car sales Hard to tell stutes given I guess the data you are looking at is just UK car sales, which is miniscule on a world scale. However, it does look like it is weak across the globe. Despite all my recent posts about the minimal impact on battery powered cars, one thing is for sure, the uncertainty it provides for those thinking of buying a new or another car is quite poignant. I have a couple of diesel cars that I’m relcuctant to change - one I don’t need to as it’s quite new - one is older and is a possibility. But faced with the UK government, what do you do? Buy a Petrol instead of a diesel, and hope that this will suffer less future tax penalties? CO2 on petrol is higher than the diesel but the big stink is now around the NOX. A hybrid seems like a joke to me because you end up with a crappy 1.6 litre petrol engine that is on average giving you an across the board fuel consumption less than a Euro NCAP diesel and a dreadful performance. Electric? One thing that puzzles me is why they haven’t come up with a design that allows you to drive to a service station and a robot changes the standard battery over in minutes like a pitstop then there would be no stupid charge time delays or queue’s switch over. If I’m not confident about charging on long distance I’m not buying one, particularly as they are still twice the price in many instances. Despite my previous optimism on JMAT I didn’t like the debt trajectory after the last set of results and took profits in December for about a 7% gain plus the November dividend. Good job I did because it is back now at 293X Is the battery business ever going to make money, given they won’t start producing them or the materials for them for almost 2 years? And will the technology have moved on from eLNO by then? Games – too many unknowns - maybe buy back at 27XX if it hits it again but doesn’t seem like a core holding for me - I’m obviously not mentally committed to it. I probably need mentally committing though at this rate.
stutes
06 Jan 2020
Low car sales Data out on car sales could affect JM’s sales?
