dog-with-fleas
03 Apr 2017
Re: Major Concern Where is the evidence that JM can deliver any step out technology? It's Fuel Cell business soaks up millions per year and the usual sound bites of jam tomorrow in this sector are now etching into the bottom of the barrel. With their poor performance why should shareholders believe it will be any different with batteries? The only hope for me is an acquisition from a more forward thinking corporation with a different cultural mindset. I sold at around 33.5 but not tempted back in unless there is a change at board level.
gamesinvestor
03 Apr 2017
Re: Major Concern """IHT a market info Co. who specialize in vehicle forecasts.ICE internal combustion engine"""HE - Glad you cleared that one up -- ICE should have been obvious lol !There are lots of pressures on Tesla, and losses are one of the immediate concerns, but today Tesla became the 2nd largest auto company - granted in terms of mkt cap :-[link] way, the total catalyst market looks set to rise for at least another 5 years""let's hope the possibility of what is seen to be developing beyond that 5 years doesn't become a permanent drag on JMAT share price for those years.I need to find a better home for this portion of my portfolio - preferably with a clear position in a growth market -- tough as that might be.Games
Hydrogen Economy
03 Apr 2017
Re: Major Concern GamesIHT a market info Co. who specialize in vehicle forecasts.ICE internal combustion engine25000 per quarter 100000 pa still a long way to go to dent a 100 million pa global market, but of course all forecasts are wild guesses at this point. Govt incentives or technology change could kick up the pace, low oil price or Trump environmental hooliganism could set it back. Either way, the total catalyst market looks set to rise for at least another 5 years, it will take a step change for BEVs to outpace car market growth before then.JM down today as is wider market but trend since trading update has been up, im holding for now.Re the battery materials vs battery technolgy, that is the crux. Whether JM can compete with the many existing suppliers especially in China which is competing with US for dominance. Tesla gets the headlines, China has a much broader manufacturing base for EVs and I think batteries.I dismissed JMs sales of batteries for power tools and ebikes some months ago as not material to EVs but I read recently that there were 200 million e vehicles mainly ebikes in China. Seems wildly OTT but there are certainly a large and growing number in asia. The experience and technolgy is likely very scalable so maybe I should pay more attention to JMs position in that market when I get chance to dig more.
gamesinvestor
03 Apr 2017
Re: Major Concern HE - Good summary.I read it quickly but have say a bit confused by all the acronyms.Remind me what these stand for again:-IHTICEFor Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), I think the forecasts could be wildly wrong, considering Tesla, which is only one player, but granted a very high profile player, have just hit 25,000 Tesla sales in the last quarter.Given that the original vehicle Tesla Model S was quite an expensive beast, it usually appeals to early adopters. However looking at some of the prices of some equivalent sized vehicles to the Model S - like an Audi A8, BMW 7 Series diesel models etc the prices are not a million miles away.Now if they can ship 25,000 of these beasts in a 3 month period (still granted small beer on a world scale) how many can they sell when the price hits $35,000 instead of $100,000+The average family car in the UK seems to be at least £30,000 + these days so a Tesla Model (X Y or Z) could soon be well within range.Elon Musk is a pretty tenacious guy and he will push hard enough so that BMW, Audi, Mercedes, VW, Seat and uncle Tom cobbly and all in the car market won't get any sleep.At the moment Panasonic are in bed with Tesla in the incredible creation of the Giga Factory just outside Reno in Nevada. OK these batteries today are Lithium Ion and that could be superseded at some point, but you can bet your arxe that these guys are on top of it.Take a look at this :- (21 facts about the Giga factory)[link] wonder if JMAT will be out in the cold on all of this?I see JMAT have the ability to provide raw materials for batteries, but will they be at the forefront of building them?They would need to get a move on, as it seems it's possible this could all accelerate within a few short years (yes they always seem to get shorter don't they?).Games
Rhigos
03 Apr 2017
Re: Major Concern I agree with Hydrogen Economy that battery technology is a growth business but I am not sure JMAT will be the company to benefit most. It is a very competitive business and JMAT currently a relatively small player. Fuel cell also an interesting technology but so far not highly profitable.My Thu limit sell order not met so I put on again for Fri this time at higher price of 3085. It was met at about 3pm on Fri at 3085.4p. Sold 60% of my JMAT, now represents 2.71% of my total portfolio (includes 10.1% cash mostly as a result of selling JMAT and also DLG, latter plan to buy back in ISA). JMAT moved down from my largest share holding to 17th, about average size for my portfolio.
Hydrogen Economy
01 Apr 2017
Re: Major Concern I share the concerns Games and other have voiced about JM future and have tried to build a clear view of the picture for short, medium and long term. I have looked that S/M term and have the following comments. The long term picture has to be based on battery vehicle technology and I have yet to find enough clarity on the competitive position of JM technology, what the strategic goals are in terms of products and markets or how far along JM are on the path to achieving them. I plan to have another look, but do so with low expectations of learning much more but will pass on anything I find,Status/short termSome segments (PT & FC) have been weak but the trading update forecast some improvement in PT in Q3 and JM are indicating improved outlook for FC which was subject to quota limits which have been increased in Q4. numbers below.ECT is the dominant segment, From Trading update Q3 sales are well up, despite HDV sales in US suffering a trucking slump, if Infrastructure spend increases maybe that will further boost ECT. FY 16/17 and next year would seem to have good outlook, mainly due to Fx but also growth in some markets. At Dec 16 GBP/$ rate underlying operating profit benefit £65m fyMedium term view IHT latest Global LV Production forecast (Feb 17) is compound 1.9% to 2024. (Last year’s rise was 8%). The increase includes Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) plug in, hybrids will still presumably require ECT. [link] BEVs were sold in 2016, 42% higher than 2015. That growth since 2011 was 350%, 198%, 57%, 54%, 68% and 42%. Hard to know how this will develop, I expect growth rate to continue to decline taking a trajectory which hits the Paris Agreement target of 100m stock of BEVs on the road in 2030 indicates a peak in ICE sales in 2026 then shallow decline. Constant 42% growth gives an ICE peak in 2021 and BEVs taking 85% of the 2030 market. Take your pick the result will probably depend a lot on technology progress but it suggests in 5 to 10 years the ECT market will stop growing, the period of decline could be as short as 5-10 years after that. [link] looks like a 10 year window of fairly stable ECT sales, a chance to build the BEV position. The direct substitution of batteries for catalysts would be a good position, noting batteries are likely much higher value per vehicle.Long term view to follow if I can find anything. H2 16/17 Q3 forecast TU Chg Const Fx CHG Const FxRevenue -2 -6 +25 +14 ECT +12 +3 +20 +2 Process Technologies -6 -12 +24 +10 Precious Metal Products +7 -2 +29 +12 Fine Chemicals -16 +4 +5 -9 New Businesses +22 +13 +4 -10 H2
Rhigos
30 Mar 2017
Re: Major Concern gamesinvestor and BroncomaniacInteresting posts. Had a look at investment trusts and Abcam (ABC) mentioned in posts. ABC looks worth a punt. Although AIM market cap bigger than a lot of FTSE 250 companies.I have placed a limit order to sell 60% of my JMAT shares at 3060 which may be a bit ambitious. Wish I had made up my mind sooner as could have got more then.I have FCS and BRFI investment trusts which are doing OK. Last Aug I bought 3i Group (III), doing well so increased holding several times since. SP increased 62% in the last 12 months.
gamesinvestor
30 Mar 2017
Re: Major Concern "The proceeds went into RCP and HFEL. Already have 3.8% of the portfolio in Anpario."Bronc, sounds like a plan - Anpario is still 1.5% of my wad and I'm out of all funds apart from one L&G low cost income fund in the missus's name that's about 1.29% of the wad.Simplification is the name of the game and with 43 stocks I probably have 5-10 simplifications still to do.Games - Or I could just go for total simplification and sell the lot lol!!
Broncomaniac
30 Mar 2017
Re: Major Concern games, you already convinced me to sell out a couple of weeks ago. Strangely I don't think I'm as pessimistic as you about the decline of ECT (I still think we are a long way off electric vehicles becoming widespread), but I like you I'm sceptical about growth prospects so I just decided to bank my profits and move on. The proceeds went into RCP and HFEL. Already have 3.8% of the portfolio in Anpario.
gamesinvestor
30 Mar 2017
Re: Major Concern ""I've reduced my stake in JMAT to only 1.7% of the wad""LK - I'm still at 2.53% -- it was about 4.5% and I sold the balance and invested half increasing my holding in Anpario and the rest in Abcam.Good the share price is recovering a bit -- I see that Anna Manz who was appointed Gp FD in July last year bought £69K's worth in November at 3180 -- but that's probably an obligatory or expected show of faith rather than a serious commitment, I can't really say.All the other serious transactions have been sales - some for tax reasons I guess.Out of interest, you had a chunky > 5% of your wad in JMAT, where did you pop the proceeds?Games
LK Hyman
30 Mar 2017
Re: Major Concern Games," edging toward the door unless ..........."I've reduced my stake in JMAT to only 1.7% of the wad, though I'm not as pessimistic as you about the effect and timing of the move to EVs and fuel cell vehicles.Their battery division is peanuts in the overall scheme of things so I wouldn't rely on that to pull the chestnuts outta the fire.Can't argue with your concern, looked at in the round!I'll leave the last word to Frankie Valli:[link] on the flybridge
gamesinvestor
29 Mar 2017
Major Concern I'm getting closer to saying good bye here unless someone can give me a set of good reasons to stay.Why?1. 64% of JMAT's business is dependent on ECT, the vast majority of which is dependent on catalytic converters for either diesel combustion engines or petrol driven combustion engines.I think it's fair to say that ultimately, and ultimately can mean a long time, it's a business that will be replaced by battery driven vehicles or fuel cell driven vehicles, however efficient or inefficient that is in terms of climate change and emissions into the atmosphere.Unless I'm nuts it's feasible to assume that this, ECT, is a dying business.2. Of the other disciplines inside the ECT, selling battery materials is the other aspect. Is this growing for JMAT, are they well positioned for this -- I don't know!!3. The PT division declined sales by 12% last time, with no new licenses signed during the period, so this is not looking like a saviour. This is 15% of group sales and it's in decline.4. Chemicals -- 11% down and weak licensing -- again where is this going?5. Oil and Gas -- Understandably this is also down 14% -- and doesn't look like it will ever recover given the decline in oil use and the potential for the oil market to be in a continued weak investment position.6. Precious metals which is 11% of group sales was down 2% -- is this a saviour?Games -- edging toward the door unless ...........
gamesinvestor
29 Mar 2017
Standard Life Not that this is any guide of investment excellence, but here is the report that shows Standard Life increases it's investment above 5% :-[link]
Rhigos
29 Mar 2017
Deutsche Bank reiterates buy Today Deutsche Bank reiterates buy recommendation.Been thinking about selling some of my JMAT for several months. Currently my largest shareholding (6.42%). Keep seeing broker recommending buy and note forecast EPS growth of 19.8% and so have not sold. I also was reluctant to sell at such a low SP. Now SP above £30 tempted to take some profits. The SP trend for the last 2 years is flat and is under performing FTSE 100 by a wide margin. The fc yield is not brilliant at 2.5%. ROE and ROCE both below their 3 year average. Really think it is time to reduce my overweight stance on JMAT.
LK Hyman
28 Mar 2017
Re: Electric Vehicles Games,Why doesn't the government put the money which it currently spends on subsidising rich people to buy a new toy ... an EV ... into the NHS, eh?It's a crying shame, so it is!JMAT's doing well today.LKH on the flybridge and so is my Sirius Minerals
