crocsnsocks
11 Dec 2014
Re: ex div and share price movements I sold on Monday for 148p as I expected them to fall by more than the dividend, just like last year. If they follow last year's form they will drift lower, unless this was due to some other factor.I expect I'll be back sometime next year.All the best.Crocs
ookyfly
11 Dec 2014
Re: SP On what basis, Lambrini. Your plentiful pronouncements ex cathedra are often amsing but usually baseless - as in this case.
lambrini girl
11 Dec 2014
Re: SP 102
jonwig1
11 Dec 2014
Re: SP Discontinuation would have meant no new cases or incremental investment in existing cases, which would go into run-off, not sale. NAV is net of management charges which are, in any case, largely front-loaded.~~~~~~~~~ Re the Apple query - the iStore has an app called "Visão Jurídica" (Portugese) which is a resource for lawyers - in Portugal, I suppose.Has this caused some confusion? Certainly JIL is very jealous in guarding confidentiality of clients.
eagle51
11 Dec 2014
Re: SP Thank you, syd. Your comments are appreciated.This year one would have been better off selling 'cum div' because (at the time of writing) for some reason the price has been marked down by 25p - 5p more than the dividend. This assumes one would not have lost this on the spread - market makers are greedy (and unprincipled).Someone who's in a position to be do so is conning us.Unless anyone thinks 75% of those entitled to vote (and using their votes) are going to vote to wind up the company and pay out the proceeds, NAV is a complete red herring. They wouldn't get NAV anyway after the liquidator had managed to sell off the cases in progress (who knows what for) and those expensive lawyers had been paid - not to mention the liquidator himself, who is always at the front of the queue for 10% or more.'Daft' is the word.Good time for the patient to add?
fabrav
10 Dec 2014
Re: Apple??? My posting was a QUESTION, not a STATEMENT OF FACT.
syd sprout
09 Dec 2014
Re: SP I am a very experienced investor and have held these shares for quite a long time.This is not only a very good post but one of the most intelligent I have read for a long time.
Greyinvestor
09 Dec 2014
New capital I'm not overly concerned with the prospect of short term shre price declines. I note that JIL doesn't seem to be big enough to have a short seller problem, so any fall should be limited to a) the short term and b) the value of the dividend. LRE, by contrast, has been hit by short selling during the 'big divi' period.A bigger concern must surely be that, just like the non life insurance industry, new capital will flow into the market and depress returns. This will happen through partnership agreements (as signed by JIL), new bond issues (as per BUR), and crowd funding sites (one launched recently in this market). It's all a product of mindless QE.Having said all of the above, this is still a market with a good ROI, and it is global. I think that in many ways it's still an infant market. I'm staying in. A firm 'hold' for me. The ride may be bumpy, but it should turn out well.
fieldsman
09 Dec 2014
NAV How do you value JIL's legal cases?% success + time taken + small print on each contract + ???I haven't read their prospectus/statements in enough detail to see how they account for their published NAV, but it is going to come down to a guesstimate.The reason I hold (in my SIPP):they pay (irregular) dividendsI hope the continue to do so!SP and divi are fairly uncorrelated with the rest of my portfolio.I hope for the best and expect the worst and try not to be too disappointed.
fieldsman
09 Dec 2014
Re: SP Eagle51 - I agree on all points!
eagle51
09 Dec 2014
SP There hasn't been a drop in JIL's share price to speak of, fabrav. The highest closing price in 2014 was 150p (last week) and the lowest was 113p (on 6 March).The market (incorrectly in my view, for reasons I have explained on many occasions) stubbornly insists on valuing JIL on its (ie the market's) estimate of NAV at any point in time. Around xd date this fixation with NAV is affected to a small extent by investors' personal tax preferences. There is invariably a sudden drop in the SP on the shares going xd and it is difficult to predict exactly what the exact extent of the drop will be. But it is designed to reflect the payment of the dividend and the consequent reduction in cash, which clearly affects NAV. Historically, on going xd, the share price has immediately fallen by the amount of the dividend (or more for some unexplained reason) and this alone is likely to persuade some investors (who perhaps prefer a capital gain to a taxed dividend) to sell without the dividend entitlement. To the extent these sales cause supply to exceed demand, in what is a thinly traded share, the share price will reflect this. This, in my simple view, explains the slight drop in share price ahead of the share going xd on 12 Dec.You, on the other hand, seem to think it has something to do with an anti-trust case involving Apple and the competence of the manager (which changed last year).I have my shares in Sipps and an ISA so tax on the dividends doesn't affect me. If I held the shares in my 'ordinary' portfolio, at the rate I am taxed in the hapless wilderness that used to be Great Britain, I would be selling at this point so as to avoid paying over even more of my money to be subsequently wasted by civil servants vaguely following the orders of incompetent politicians. In suggesting that UK politicians are incompetent I am not hazarding a guess.
eagle51
08 Dec 2014
Re: Apple??? fabrav - please will you let us have full details of the Apple case you refer to, plus a full picture of JIL's involvement?It is unwise, in my humble opinion, to call into question the professional competence of anyone based only on guesswork.Otherwise I thought your post was incisive.
fabrav
08 Dec 2014
Apple??? Only guessing, but is the drop in share price linked to the 10 year ongoing Anti trust case v Apple? if it is, it must call into question the competency of those in JIL who chose the cases? Any comments?
Chard Nick
02 Dec 2014
Re: ex div and share price movements I'm surprised that the SP hasn't risen quite a bit more to take full account of the huge dividend. I'm pretty certain that we will see a 20p mark down when we go ex dividend on 12 Dec. The question then is will some shareholders then sell in which case the SP should drop a bit more.However, there might be others, like myself, who reckon that this share has potential to pay out significant dividends in the future so 130 will be a very good top-up point indeed.All the best
Randlord
01 Dec 2014
Re: ex div and share price movements I wonder if that NAV figure includes the latest development in relation to their own holding of patents. Also interesting to note that Crystal Amber the investment company has recently increased its stake in Juridica.Finally, I think there is a currency factor here so there could be some movement if cable moves.
