May be of interest... [link]
Overpriced I sold out yesterday at 8.8865. Reason was that I got my 05 October valuation. At that time the 4 pub groups I hold were were with yield: Fullers 1.76%Greene King 4.15%Marston's 4.9%Wetherspoon's 1.28%Now Marston's divi is probably too high. But Weatherspoon's had a big boost after the EU referendum, probably due to Tim Martin's being a Leaver. Unsustainable in my view given that Weatherspoon's USP is price. Weatherspoon's is already very efficient and its trade is wet-led with no lodging offering so will not benefit from staycations. The others still have some fat to cut and will be better able to hold prices down.
NEW ARTICLE: JD Wetherspoon boozers celebrate Brexit "In an article yesterday I talked about gloating Brexiteers. Hours later, and perhaps the most vocal of all the stockmarket's 'Leave' voters - LSE:JDW:JD Wetherspoon's mulletted chairman Tim Martin - could not resist a barrel-sized dig at ..."[link]
Nice update, shares march on FY16 results were slightly ahead of the raised expectations set at pre-close announcement back in July. LFL sales +3.4% and Operating margin 6.87% (PGe 6.8%). Revenue was £1,595.2m (PGe £1,601.9m), PBT of £80.6m (PGe £74.5m) giving EPS of 48.3p (PGe 47.8p) and DPS was held flat at 12.0p as expected. The outlook is upbeat, with current LFL sales running at 4.1% and hence we expect earnings upgrades of c3%. Shares have had a strong run into the results and trading on 9.0x 2017 EV/EBITDA broadly in line with the sector.
Re: BUY OK it went up 200points since my last post. Cool.I am now Short on this at todays prices. I don't see it going up to 1000, unless they embark on massive share buy backs. Will have to bail if it goes up another 50pts and get back in short higher.GLA,A.
AlphaValue's note out this morning on Research Tree: "JD Wetherspoon (JDW) reported Q3 16 results (13 weeks to 24 April 2016) which were slightly better than our estimates. The lfl revenue was up by 3.8% (our estimate: 2.8%) and total sales increased by 5.5% (vs Q2 16: 6.3%, Q1 16: 6.1%; our estimate: 4.6%). The operating margin declined to 6.4% (-110bp yoy, +10bp qoq, vs our estimate: 6.6%) on the back of a c.8% increase in hourly wages since August 2015. On a ytd basis, the lfl revenue increased by 3.2% (-40bp yoy) and total sales was up 5.9% (-200bp yoy)."
BUY Just watch this one.ATBA.
Re: Lamentable performance I have to agree re Europe however he did two good things I thought:1) He didn't bang on about tax parity in the pubs industry like he normally does in Chairman's reports (he may be right but change the record occasionally, please)2) His comments on the junior doctors' strike were interesting ie if you try to change contracts and cannot take the staff with you, you will lose them and probably be forced to backtrack - although whether he would actually do this in practice is another matter.I actually was rather surprised how poorly the Brexit politicians performed on that programme as well. They got a lot of cheers from the already decided portion of the audience, but they could not coherently answer a lot of Paddy Ashdown's points at all. I don't think they would have persuaded many floating voters on that performance.
Lamentable performance Did anyone see JDW's Chairman on Question Time last night? Ihave never heard so much nonsense coming from one person. He is a Brexit fan, but could nor come up with a single reason to support his view.Well, I can predict some likely reasons. The EU legislates to prevent employee exploitation and to improve health and safety. Now if you believe in the hire and fire concept and do not care much about your customers' health, then of course you would want to bin all the regulations.Another likely reason for the Chairman wanting Brexit is that if we leave the EU we will be all poorer (recession and higher unemployment) so we will not be able to afford to eat in a decent restaurant and will be forced into the cheapest option. Clever when you think about it, but while the Chairman votes Brexit, we should all vote REMAIN.
NEW ARTICLE: A stock in one chart "LSE:JDW:JD Wetherspoon is one of Britain's most successful pub companies. Its business model of selling drinks and food at cheap prices has been a big hit with consumers.As a result, the company has been able to post impressive increases in ..."[link]
Re: DOWN in Favour Now ! ! You are spot on; this outfit has lost its way. The company has only one strategy which is to pile it high and sell it cheap. The only way you can make a profit this way is to by adopting low wage hire and fire policies. "We cannot afford the minimum wage so now you are 21 you are sacked. We will replace you with someone younger".Throughout my employment I have been protected by legislation that started in the EU. If we leave the EU all legislation protecting employees will be scrapped. I guess this is why the Chairman is such a Brexit fan. Let us go back to the good old days when we could do what we like. If you work for this company the only hope you have got is to vote to remain in the EU.
Chart signal Big reversal in the chart today with today's down engulfing yesterday's up. After the recovery which followed the negative trading statement this looks to me to signal a move back to the lower levels reached in January and I have gone short.
Trading Update Looks like the somewhat depressing trading outlook and profit forecast has severely affected the share price. Appears a rather harsh fall for a well run company.
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: This highly-rated share offers defensive growth " With the business cycle already extended and warnings creeping in, be alert for dependable performers. A proven theme from the last recession was well-managed pubs in South East England, benefiting from people's resolve not to compromise social ..."[link]
Re: DOWN in Favour Now ! ! JDW's planning application for a pub on a key boulevard in Welwyn Garden City was thrown out last night by Councillors unanimously. The company's entire approach was seen as arrogant and superficial; it failed to engage with the locals choosing PR as its chosen means of communication and what was being said in the company's name was seen as very questionable. Their planning application itself was also widely seen as amongst the worst ever presented and they seemed to have done no homework about the place they were seeking to occupy at all.For a major public company this was seen as a lamentable performance.