jackdawsson
15 Jan 2019
Long at 149.55 Long at 133.58. Re-opened 3rd long at slightly better entry than before. This added to longs at 145.49 & 149.55 as posted. Reasons: increasing support not far below, mindful one rarely buys the low. Target loose, but would again take a few points on this latest add. - GLA.
jackdawsson
09 Jan 2019
Long at 149.55 Hi El_Kel, Thanks, including for germane link. Glad to say it looks like you’re right & with 2 longs left I naturally hope ITV’s recovery continues. But with this complex Brexit business entering critical stages, with a number of outcomes still possible, I had to balance my existing leveraged exposure (still mostly well underwater overall) with occasional new trading temptations/opportunities opening up with other stocks. Hence some profitable reductions here & elsewhere recently, but also a new position opened in another stock today. - Regards & GL.
El_Kel
09 Jan 2019
Long at 149.55 jackdawsson: Closed at 137.71. Booked 4+ points in view of the extent of the recent bounce here & an uncertain macro-climate. Plus that I’ve still 2 longs left for much higher targets. No reflection on ITV’s L/T potential. More so a sensible move in view of being leveraged. JS Fair enough, but I reckon there’s still more short term upside re the Sky retransmission deal talks…although of course your longs are still in place to benefit. I’m minded to leave my low sp tranches in place for now. “With the current retransmission deal with Sky due to expire this year, if the pair can come to an agreement on retransmission fees it would add around £120m of revenues and lead to a “material uplift†on ITV earnings, the analyst added.†[link]
jackdawsson
09 Jan 2019
Long at 149.55 jackdawsson: Add long 133.69. Flexibility called for. A 3rd long here as stock looks ridiculously oversold largely on sentiment & Brexit concerns. Little question here that it’ll be a lot higher again later. Closed at 137.71. Booked 4+ points in view of the extent of the recent bounce here & an uncertain macro-climate. Plus that I’ve still 2 longs left for much higher targets. No reflection on ITV’s L/T potential. More so a sensible move in view of being leveraged. - GL.
Nige_co
03 Jan 2019
Celebrity Love Island Is a Temptation for Bankers Hi Jack, Yes I agree. IMHO, its more to do with Brexit negative impact on the whole stock market resulting in a very weak ITV share price performance, along with many other company’s share prices. I’m sure you would agree Jack, without all this, ITV share price would be a lot higher than today’s 125p. I’ve no doubt that any interested acquirers would start with a low offer, I would hope, and expect that the large shareholders would want a higher offer than the reported speculation of 160p per share, but who knows. Regards. Nige.
jackdawsson
03 Jan 2019
Celebrity Love Island Is a Temptation for Bankers Nige_co: I hope, and would expect the ITV DOD would not recommend a bid of only 160p per share. This IMHO, would under value ITV. Hi Nige, I agree, notwithstanding an obvious self-interest. However, with SP struggling at over 5 year lows & market confidence recently shot to pieces, as things stand, I fear that any offer in the near future would more likely be around 160, rather than much higher. It depends on the timing. By the by, really outstanding CEOs are relatively rare. Former CEO Adam Crozier was a fine example. He understood the sector & ITV customers, soon restored market confidence & boosted the SP. From what we’ve seen so far, despite Brexit being a huge negative here, Carolyn McCall has yet to impress. Very poor over her first year. - Regards.
Nige_co
03 Jan 2019
Celebrity Love Island Is a Temptation for Bankers I hope, and would expect the ITV DOD would not recommend a bid of only 160p per share. This IMHO, would under value ITV. Nige.
Nige_co
03 Jan 2019
Celebrity Love Island Is a Temptation for Bankers [link]
Nige_co
31 Dec 2018
STOCK MARKET WATCHLIST: Our predictions for 2019 Hi Jack, Thanks for your kind words and wishes. Once again I agree with all your knowledgable comments. While I also take tipsters comment with a very large pinch of salt, I would rather have the so-called experts in favour than against the company’s that I’m invested in. Will 2019 be a better year than 2018 in the stock market? IMHO, for what its worth I don’t think 2019 could get much worse with a lot of FTSE100 company’s valuations at bargain prices. I hope you don’t mind Jack buy I’ve copied your comment below because I couldn’t have put it better myself. Good luck Jack, and good health. “All the very best to you & all for the New Year! Thanks again for all the interesting comments& links you’ve contributed.†Kind regards. Nige.
jackdawsson
31 Dec 2018
STOCK MARKET WATCHLIST: Our predictions for 2019 Hi Nige, I feel many of us may go along with the gist of that, mindful of the general inconsistency of most tipsters & brokers. Many fare little better than retail investors. Probably not surprising considering the recent market volatility & that most FTSE stocks are well down mostly on sentiment as mounting uncertainty & fear dominates. Whilst we certainly can’t rule out the possibility of “even worse†in the New Year, it’d be more than a little disappointing to see much lower than ITV’s L/T closing low of 122.85 on 27th Dec. That low was on the back of barely 50% of ITV’s average daily volume. This suggests mostly retail selling, rather than major funds. Whilst I don’t place much weight on any tipster, FWIW, MF have also recently cited ITV as one of their top 3 for 2019. What they say quoted below. All the very best to you & all for the New Year! Thanks again for all the interesting comments & links you’ve contributed! From MF: "The picture looks good to me: Investors were in a rush to sell FTSE 100 broadcaster ITV (LSE: ITV) before Christmas. The shares have fallen by around 15% since late November, taking them to a five-year low. I don’t think ITV’s performance in 2018 justifies such harsh treatment. During the first nine months of 2018, the group reported increased revenue from advertising (+2%), online (+43%) and the ITV studios production business (+10%). One concern is that adjusted earnings are expected to fall by 4.5% to 15.3p per share. This will be the second year in which earnings have fallen, and analysts expect to see a further drop in 2019. However, the company’s debt levels remain comfortable, in my view, and cash generation is strong. This year’s forecast dividend of 8.1p per share should be covered 1.9 times by earnings, which looks safe to me. With the shares trading on just 9 times 2019 forecast earnings and offering a 6.5% yield, I think ITV is too cheap to ignore, despite the uncertain outlook." [link]
Nige_co
31 Dec 2018
STOCK MARKET WATCHLIST: Our predictions for 2019 STOCK MARKET WATCHLIST: Our predictions for 2019 - Seven picks… but will they turn out lucky? William Turvill, City Correspondent: ITV: The I’m A Celebrity broadcaster’s shares are at a five-year low, having fallen 25 per cent this year. My outlandish prediction is that political uncertainty in the UK will lift some time this year, confidence will rise, ITV’s advertising revenue will start to recover and the share price will follow. Either that, or things will get even worse for ITV before a global media firm mulls a generous takeover bid. This is Money – 29 Dec 18 STOCK MARKET WATCHLIST: Our predictions for 2019 The year 2018 was a turbulent one. Here, The Mail on Sunday’s City team take a punt on the shares that they think have the best chance of riding out the storm in 2019.
jackdawsson
11 Dec 2018
Long at 149.55 Hi Doug, Mindful that markets are forward-looking & tend to err on the side of caution, I agree that even worse seems likely if Parliament was unable to avoid a disastrous “no deal†by default. Most UK investments would be further hit. The tragedy of this self-inflicted financial damage is that, as it stands, almost anything can happen. But ITV have previously stated that any Brexit will impact negatively on advertising revenues, let alone a no deal. So I feel that some of the fear behind that may be priced in at these levels. Of course I could be wrong. But whatever happens on the macro-front, the only thing we as individuals can control 100% is whether to buy more, hold or sell. I agree cash may be King in this climate, but I also know that there is no chance of me selling these at loss. - Regards.
Uncle_Doug
11 Dec 2018
Long at 149.55 jackdawsson: Markets seem to be pricing in a “no deal†disorderly Brexit. Markets doing a standard correction - all indices are down. I reckon there would be a much bigger slump if ‘no deal’ was truly on the cards. We are not prepared for it. The recent fall in ITV however seems disproportionately awful when compared to other stocks - far worse than CNA or LLOY for example. I can’t find any news that justifies this fall - except maybe the warnings in the last results. I’d say all buys are high risk while this uncertainty and this shambles of a parliament goes on. Cash is king.
jackdawsson
11 Dec 2018
Long at 149.55 Nige_co: I hope you are well mate? I also agree with your comments. And would also add, without Brexit I feel that the ITV share price along with a lot of other company’s share prices would be a lot higher. Don’t beat yourself up Jack on the timing of your recent ITV purchases, I’m sure that the SP will recover given time, at least you are being paid 6% while you wait. Lets hope that Brexit gets sorted out ASAP, one way or another. Markets hate uncertainty, as you know. Hi Nige, Thanks for asking & I agree with all you say. I also hope that all else goes well in your life, especially away from markets. I’m generally okay. But I’d be sparing with the truth not to admit that occasionally when holding rising paper losses through prolonged downturns, one certainly questions oneself & markets. Not least the latter’s efficiency with their preponderance of algo-driven, high-frequency trading that requires little human interaction. I’m not looking to shift personal responsibility. We know this game is never easy. But sometimes the sheer irrationality of markets poses further questions about notions of fair value, etc. That said, I’ve no serious doubt that this will recover later, with longer-term resistance levels requiring new bullish data to break out. If all thing were equal, we should be approaching an optimum time for stocks like ITV with signifiant increases in seasonal ad revenues, et al. So I’m quite bullish for once we get clarity on Brexit (a matter I’ve expanded on elsewhere, so I won’t digress here). As you say, the yield keeps increasing & the stock seems cheap, despite Brexit. I share your views about a possible takeover bid in future. Would buy more at these levels if not for margin considerations. So for me it remains a 100% firm hold for targets. - All the best!
Nige_co
11 Dec 2018
Long at 149.55 Hi Jack, I hope you are well mate? I also agree with your comments. And would also add, without Brexit I feel that the ITV share price along with a lot of other company’s share prices would be a lot higher. Don’t beat yourself up Jack on the timing of your recent ITV purchases, I’m sure that the SP will recover given time, at least you are being paid 6% while you wait. Lets hope that Brexit gets sorted out ASAP, one way or another. Markets hate uncertainty, as you know. Regards. & GL. Nige
