Norman Barrington
11 May 2018
Re: ITV @155.77 shares - sold 168.22 Jack, as an old fashioned investor, hardly ever doing quick trades, except in extenuating circumstances, I was struck by a line in your last post: " I'm disinclined to push my luck too much."Obviously luck plays it part in the success or failure of any investment, but to what extent do you think luck plays a greater part in leveraged trades if at all? In other words, isn't leveraged trading more akin to gambling pure and simple?That would explain overall losses likely the longer people use this strategy, which is also true of casinos or betting on horses.Just curious, I have no agenda and am not trying to 'make a point". I too would commend you on your honest posts reporting losses as well as gains.
jackdawsson
11 May 2018
Re: ITV @155.77 shares - sold 168.22 My target was 164+. Also taken 5.28 pts to boot in dividends, still to come through. So quite satisfied to reduce some of my long exposure. Aside from the very strong rise, I also prefer to book decent gains. No reflection on stock's potential for higher, but ITV has been an excellent trade for me over the past year & I'm disinclined to push my luck too much.Still hold shares @174.75, @164.06 + one SB long. - GLA. Off out a while.
Nige co
11 May 2018
Re: ITV looks ripe for a takeover Hi IOMINVESTCOM,I was thinking a takeover bid of around 220p would be accepted, but if a bun fight starts maybe 265p may well be achieved. I would be happy with 220p.GL
IOMINVESTCOM
11 May 2018
Re: ITV looks ripe for a takeover I wonder whether that 2.65 price will be seen as the eventual take out price if a bidding war finally works out. That area has been mentioned on a number of times.atb
Nige co
11 May 2018
World Cup could cheer ITV World Cup could cheer ITV, says Liberum Concerns about a significant slowdown in advertising at ITV (ITV) are proving to be unwarranted and Liberum expects a turnaround in the commercial broadcaster’s shares. Analyst Ian Whittaker reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and share price target of 265p following a first quarter trading statement showing increased diversification in dividend payments and an advertising increase of 3%, boosted by video on demand advertising revenue. He said ITV shares had been depressed on expectations that June advertising around the World Cup would be weaker than thought. However, ITV’s latest prediction is that total advertising will rise 17% next month, ahead of the single-digit percentage increases predicted by media buyers.‘We expect forecasts to remain broadly stable but, after negative expectations around June, the shares may see a turn in sentiment,’ said Whittaker.
Nige co
11 May 2018
ITV looks ripe for a takeover [link] PAGANO: Investment in great content has paid off... now ITV looks ripe for a takeoverCarolyn McCall is flying high at ITV – so high that the broadcaster and producer may be taken over before she soars too far above the clouds.One of the likeliest suitors for the maker of TV hits such as Coronation Street and Love Island is Liberty Global, the US cable operator which owns Virgin Media, and which has a 10 per cent stake in ITV.Speculation has heated up again as Liberty, owned by billionaire investor John Malone, is set to receive a windfall of £11billion cash after selling its European cable operations to Vodafone.Liberty’s Malone, long seen as a potential bidder for ITV, has also made it clear that after tidying up operations in Europe he wants to concentrate on the UK.This may include buying content for his cable networks or snapping up another mobile operator.Who knows which Liberty goes for, but ITV looks a snip at its present £6bn market price. As a trading update yesterday showed, the business is growing faster than expected, on and off screen.The former chief executive of EasyJet, McCall has been at ITV for only five months but clearly her talent for focus is paying off. External revenues were up by 5 per cent but the golden goose was ITV Studios, where revenues were 11 per cent higher.As well as new series of old favourites such as Britain’s Got Talent and Love Island, there are many new ones in the pipeline, such as the Vanity Fair drama, from the same producers of Victoria and Poldark, which was ironically such a hit on BBC.McCall wants to grow ITV Studios into a strong programme-making brand, producing shows for Netflix as well as competing with it. It’s the right strategy to wean the business off advertising and, so far, is going in the right direction. Even so, what the City was looking at most closely was the level of net advertising revenue – a good indicator to future growth.This was 3 per cent higher and ITV is predicting ad sales up for the World Cup.Analysts are now saying ITV’s shares, which trade on a price earnings multiple of just under ten, should be rerated. As ITV, Sky, Netflix and others have shown so brilliantly, investment in great content pays off. Having distribution as well is even better.It’s why Comcast is busy lining up financing for a £45billion all-cash offer for the 21st Century Fox entertainment assets being sold by media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, which would top Disney’s existing £38.5billion all-share deal.This includes Murdoch’s 39 per cent stake in Sky, and it is quietly confident because of UK regulator concerns over Murdoch’s dominant media presence.If you compare ITV to international peers such as 21st Century Fox, Vivendi and CBS, it looks undervalued.With ITV seeing an uplift in advertising revenues, including from the forthcoming World Cup, some suggest shares could shoot up to 265p over the next year or so.Come fly with me!
jackdawsson
11 May 2018
Re: Long @ 158.98 - closed 163.14 Typo & academic, but 4+ pts. Cheers.
jackdawsson
11 May 2018
Re: Long @ 158.98 - closed 163.14 Booking 3+ more pts on 2nd leveraged long in view of a very strong rise since yesterday. Still long at 166.07. Main stake held in 3 tranches of real shares, hoping for a lot higher later. - GLA.
IOMINVESTCOM
11 May 2018
World Cup could cheer ITV, says Liberum Concerns about a significant slowdown in advertising at ITV (ITV) are proving to be unwarranted and Liberum expects a turnaround in the commercial broadcaster’s shares.Analyst Ian Whittaker reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and share price target of 265p following a first quarter trading statement showing increased diversification in dividend payments and an advertising increase of 3%, boosted by video on demand advertising revenue.He said ITV shares had been depressed on expectations that June advertising around the World Cup would be weaker than thought. However, ITV’s latest prediction is that total advertising will rise 17% next month, ahead of the single-digit percentage increases predicted by media buyers.‘We expect forecasts to remain broadly stable but, after negative expectations around June, the shares may see a turn in sentiment,’ said Whittaker.ITV shares advanced 4.6p or 3% to 155.7p.[link]
Nige co
10 May 2018
Why I believe the ITV share price could soon return to 250p [link] I believe the ITV share price could soon return to 250pOver the past 12 months, shares in ITV (LSE: ITV) have cratered thanks to concerns about the company’s ability to be able to compete with the likes of Amazon and Netflix. However, today the company has gone some way to offset these concerns by revealing that trading so far this year is not as bad as many expected. Improving outlook The company announced this morning that total external revenue rose 5% in the three months to the end of March. All of the group’s divisions reported growth, particularly its online arm, where revenues expanded 41% year-on-year. Revenue from the production of content at ITV Studios increased 11%. Overall, Broadcast & Online revenue rose 3% to £526m as Online, Pay & Interactive rose 25%. What’s more, net advertising revenue (NAR), which is closely watched by the City, grew 3% in Q1 and is “expected to be up 2% over the first half with continued strong growth in online and broadly flat ITV Family NAR.” It seems ITV’s top line is benefitting from the firm’s content offering, which appears to be a hit with viewers. According to new CEO Carolyn McCall, total minutes viewed across the ITV Family grew 4% year-on-year while time spent viewing online via the ITV Hub jumped 31%. Based on first-quarter trading, management believes ITV is on track to deliver double-digit growth in online revenue and good organic revenue growth in ITV Studios for the full year. But the update does warn that the results for the rest of the year will “reflect the timing of the Football World Cup.” Time to buy? In my opinion, these figures show that the concerns about ITV’s continued relevance in today’s rapidly changing media environment are overblown. Rising NAR shows that advertisers still see value in the platform and the group’s efforts to diversify online and into production, are paying off. And if the company can build on its positive Q1 performance throughout the rest of 2018, I believe the shares could rise significantly from current levels. Indeed, based on current City estimates, the ITV share price is trading at a forward P/E of just under 10, hardly a demanding multiple for a growing, cash-rich business. For comparison, international peers, including the likes of Vivendi SA, CBS, News Corp and Twenty-First Century Fox all trade at multiples in the mid-teens or higher. The UK media sector as a whole trades at a forward P/E of 14.Considering the above, as ITV returns to growth I believe the firm’s valuation could move up to the sector average, which implies a share price of 216p based on current City earnings targets. If the company continues to perform better than expected, the market could place an even higher multiple on the shares. Twenty-First Century Fox, for example, trades at a forward P/E of 17. This would give a share price of 267p for ITV in the most bullish case. That being said, following today’s positive update, it is possible analysts will revise their forecasts for growth higher in the months ahead, justifying an even higher valuation. So overall, over the next 12 months, shares in ITV could jump by as much as 70% excluding dividends as the firm continues to defy expectations.
jackdawsson
10 May 2018
Re: Long 150.10 - closed 156.75 Booked a quick 6.5+ pts as FTSE looks high again & I'm in ITV quite heavily, including still 2 longs at 166.07, 158.98, & 3 tranches of shares. But a pleasing spike in price this morning & I've no doubts we'll be back to over 160 in good time. - GLA.
Blanketstacker
10 May 2018
TRADING UPDATE Advertising revenues up 3%Total revenues up 5%Pension deficit to nil"For the full year we are on track to deliver continued good organic revenue growth in ITV Studios and double digit revenue growth in Online"
jackdawsson
09 May 2018
Re: Long @ 166.07, 158.98, add 150.10 Re-added a 3rd SB long as we've seen recent support not far below these levels & we can look forward to some key sporting events over the next few weeks. Plus, seems a decent chance that ITV forecasts in the next update may impress markets. Also hold 3 tranches in another thread of real shares for higher. - GLA.
Nige co
09 May 2018
Re: Vodafone to buy Liberty Global's assets I guess its now or never for Liberty to acquire ITV? If Malone doesn’t make a move soon then he never will. JMO.
oilovlam
09 May 2018
Vodafone to buy Liberty Global's assets Vodafone has agreed to acquire Liberty Global's operations in Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania for an enterprise value of €18.4 billion[link]
