jackdawsson
24 May 2018
Long @ 167.77 Target for another 170+ on this. Modest as leveraged. Would be prepared to add more if lower seen. - GLA.
jackdawsson
24 May 2018
Efficiency from iii I know iii incurred lots of criticism since taking over from TDD (I was a satisfied client of the latter) &, frankly, in many cases rightly so. But their service does seem to have improved significantly over recent months, be it with their trading desk or other aspects. ITV dividends received in my account very early this morning. As for SP here: same as in recent weeks. Resistance at circa 172 & support not far below current levels of 168+. If it drops much more I may reopen a leveraged long. Otherwise will sit with 2 tranches of real shares I have left until closer to 180. That level last seen intraday back in October. - GLA.
jackdawsson
21 May 2018
Re: Long @ 166.77 - closed 170.43 Last leveraged position closed for 3.5+ pts. Reasons: FTSE at new record highs + recent resistance here at circa 172. In context, not great. Also hold 2 tranches of shares for potential breakout. - GLA.
Nige co
21 May 2018
Re: ITV a potential take over target FULL ARTICLE[link]
beza
20 May 2018
ITV a potential take over target I noticed on todays www.thisismoney an article regarding possible take over targets by overseas buyers as a result of the low pound.Russ Mould investment director at broker AJ Bell named ITV, William Hill and estate agents as likely targets...Regards
Nige co
18 May 2018
Liberty Speculation Virgin Media searches for new leader as chief executive prepares to log off Chief executive Mike Fries has said he is keeping his options open amid speculation that it could swoop on ITV or the mobile operator O2 to reinforce Virgin Media as the UK market moves towards connectivity packages that combine fixed-line and mobile internet servicesFULL ARTICLE[link]
Nige co
15 May 2018
UK, and ITV, a renewed focus for Liberty Global [link] and ITV, a renewed focus for Liberty Global With Liberty Global now busy concluding its huge asset sale of cable TV interests in Germany and Eastern Europe to Vodafone, it’s time to consider what might be next for John Malone’s voracious appetite for potential assets. While still very much a ‘rumour de jour’, it is ITV that – one way or another – might be in Dr Malone’s sights, and for solid reasons.That’s certainly the view at investment bank Exane/BNPP, where analysts have re-examined Liberty Global’s anticipated ‘war chest’ (assuming the cable asset sale wraps and is approved by both EU and German regulators).Key to what Malone might do next are the significant tax assets – linked to Virgin Media – that remain in the UK. “Following the sale of assets, Liberty Global becomes a very UK company,” says the bank. “Indeed, we estimate ~56 per cent of gross Operating Cashflow is originating from the UK, approximately a quarter from [Belgium’s] Telenet, 13 per cent from Switzerland and 5/6 per cent from CEE.”The bank says: “Virgin has significant tax assets in the region and this also a reason why Liberty may also pursue ITV given their cash influx from the German & Eastern European cable sales.”“While an imminent bid for ITV is not core to our buy thesis,” says the bank. “In the context of ongoing consolidation we view a potential bid as an important support for the share price, and underpinning the attractive risk reward of the ITV investment case. We see a solid strategic rationale for an acquisition by either Liberty or Discovery, with a joint bid (a la All3Media) a credible option – we note John Malone is no stranger to creative acquisition structures.”“We see the strategic rationale for Discovery as stronger (Synergies with All3media / Eurosport / non-scripted content / Olympics) but post Scripps acquisition, leverage is likely too stretched for an imminent deal. We see the strategic rationale for Discovery as stronger (Synergies with All3media / Eurosport / non-scripted content / Olympics) but post Scripps acquisition, leverage is likely too stretched for an imminent deal,” suggests the bank.“Given that US/UK Media is presently undergoing a period of rapid consolidation with a variety of high profile deals including AT&T/Time Warner, Disney/Fox, Comcast/Sky, this is something to watch now as content and distribution players seek scale and differentiation. ITV’s corporate history is punctuated with periods of intense speculation over its corporate future (Goldman, PE, Liberty Global etc),” concludes Exane/BNPP.
jackdawsson
14 May 2018
Long @ 166.77 Re-opened 1 long on the dip. Prepared to open 2 more on any sharper reversals. Target loose, but over 170 would do on this. - 2 tranches of real shares held for higher. - GLA.
jackdawsson
13 May 2018
Re: FAO: Norman Barrington Re: ITV @155.... "I appreciate your detailed response. Ironically the problems you raise are quite similar to mistakes made by me with some shares. Perhaps my desire to diversify, I do have a lot to keep an eye on, not to mention a separate bigger list of "Eye2buy". My biggest mistake is not to action my ratcheted stop loss, thinking 'it's just a blip' then somehow getting locked into a downward spiral like a rabbit caught in headlights. If I could be more steel nerved and action them as I should I would be making far more from my investments, however my bottom line is quite impressive showing a 36% gain over 8 years including all dogs, the worst being a contender for all time dog - Torotrak (originally bought on a tip from a 'friend') which I hasten to say I did not sell at the bottom!Emotions are the worst enemy to Maximising gains, and a failure (selling too late or selling too early) always niggles disproportionately, compared to equal vslue of successes."========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== Hi Norman,Thanks for your response & I much agree. I think many people can empathise with the above, not least I. Sentiment & emotion are constant factors in markets. But you've still done very well in achieving the stated growth. Overall, it's good steady progress. Many people place huge weight on diversification. It's certainly important (ie. never put too many eggs in one basket). But I also think it can be overdone. I've read that for long periods even the great Warren Buffett, like his mentor Ben Graham, only held 4 or 5 stocks. That surprised me. But both strongly believed in focusing on their so-called limited "circle of competence". They considered that too much diversity would almost inevitably result in a number of very big losers. Re other points: I've been around long enough to accept that, bar VG luck, even if one sells close to L/T resistance levels, which often pose psychological barriers hard to break without fresh good news, one still rarely sells near exact tops. Likewise with buying, one often misses the bottom. When I first started trading, that would bug me. Sometimes it'd lead to jumping back in far too soon after taking gains. But in recent years I've grown accustomed to it being par for the course. Also, that if in doubt, it's okay to sit on the sidelines for longer.Even the very best make mistimed or mistaken calls, be it Buffett (for eg. with TSCO), or Woodford with a number of his recent buys. What matters far more is overall performance over time. Markets will always provide new opportunity for the patient. That's a cert. That approach has, with few exceptions, served me well with real shares. I like to buy FTSE shares that may be oversold on sentiment. Especially those with strong underlying fundamentals & a decent yield as consolation for holding longer than one anticipated. I'm now trying to replicate the same approach with leverage. Long positions only & avoiding indices, shorting, or anything too risk-laden. So no more "white knuckle rides" for me. That much is certain. Regards.
Norman Barrington
12 May 2018
Re: FAO: Norman Barrington Re: ITV @155.77 s... I appreciate your detailed response. Ironically the problems you raise are quite similar to mistakes made by me with some shares. Perhaps my desire to diversify, I do have a lot to keep an eye on, not to mention a separate bigger list of "Eye2buy". My biggest mistake is not to action my ratcheted stop loss, thinking 'it's just a blip' then somehow getting locked into a downward spiral like a rabbit caught in headlights. If I could be more steel nerved and action them as I should I would be making far more from my investments, however my bottom line is quite impressive showing a 36% gain over 8 years including all dogs, the worst being a contender for all time dog - Torotrak (originally bought on a tip from a 'friend') which I hasten to say I did not sell at the bottom!Emotions are the worst enemy to Maximising gains, and a failure (selling too late or selling too early) always niggles disproportionately, compared to equal vslue of successes. I suppose the principals that govern your methods, and mine are not that different after all, however you obviously have more of a penchant for short white knuckle rides.Cheers
jackdawsson
11 May 2018
FAO: Norman Barrington Re: ITV @155.77 shares - sold 168.22 "Jack, as an old fashioned investor, hardly ever doing quick trades, except in extenuating circumstances, I was struck by a line in your last post: " I'm disinclined to push my luck too much."Obviously luck plays it part in the success or failure of any investment, but to what extent do you think luck plays a greater part in leveraged trades if at all? In other words, isn't leveraged trading more akin to gambling pure and simple?That would explain overall losses likely the longer people use this strategy, which is also true of casinos or betting on horses.Just curious, I have no agenda and am not trying to 'make a point". I too would commend you on your honest posts reporting losses as well as gains."========== ========== ========== ========== =Hi Norman,Quoted your comment again for clarity. Without doubt, most of my losses with leverage came from ill-discipline, reckless over-staking in high risk sectors & compromising my margin. Avoiding those absolutely fundamental for all using SBs. Luck can be a factor (at anytime, breaking macro-news, serious political unrest, an inflammatory Trump speech, etc. can affect markets), but it's not often an overriding one. My earlier reference to luck was purely a gentle reminder to myself that booking gains after any decent rise, then biding my time, has been a very profitable approach for me for years. As has careful averaging down when buying. It's not the only way to be profitable, but it's worked well for me over time. The reason why I'm successful with real shares, but still trying to recoup significant losses with leverage, is that real shares, by default of the platform, eliminated a lot of more extreme risk. For eg. one can't trade indices, go short on mining stocks, et al. Plus one only trades or invests with the funds in one's account. Leverage opens people up to a multitude of risky temptations. I succumbed to them mostly from greed for faster gains & from overrating my ability. Not bad luck. For eg. I ended up on the receiving end of 200+ pt moves against me using SBs with a miner. Very costly. I over-staked on CNA. Lost loads on indices due to increased volatility. Most of the circa 90% of losers with leverage make common mistakes. Not from ignorance, but a mix of hot-headedness, greed & ill-discipline. Knowing what to do is one thing. Putting it into consistent practice is a lot harder due to ego & emotions. Few get that right. However, for a disciplined trader using leverage with care & respect, never over-staking, paying attention to both fundamental & technicals, the platform is little different to real shares. Dividends are paid on long positions. There's no commission, no tax. Most of the cost is in the spread + a daily funding charge which for stocks (unlike indices) is a quite nominal. But similar trading principles apply. as with real shares However, I'd NEVER encourage anyone to take up SBs as the stats for failure are very telling & many people struggle with the discipline side. I'm just an ordinary Joe, but I continue with SBs alongside real shares as I'm determined to try & recoup my losses. As long as I never again over-estimate my ability & I trade as I would with real shares, I have a slight chance. But I also have a healthy dose of self-doubt about it, hence also a limit as to how much more I would risk. All the best!
jackdawsson
11 May 2018
Re: Long @ 166.07 - closed 171.88 Closed last leveraged hold in ITV for over 5.5. pts wrapping up a decent run here with SBs. Just 2 tranches of real shares left. Got back a few mins ago & still trading elsewhere, so will answer queries shortly. - GLA.
Nige co
11 May 2018
potential acquirer Liberty Global ITV is attracting interest a day after its first trading update under new boss Carolyn McCall. JPMorgan Cazenove analyst Daniel Kerven this morning highlights the strategic value of ITV to a potential acquirer such as Liberty Global or others as it "offers English language content and has the most efficient platform for the video monetisation of content in the UK" and for telecoms companies "the opportunity to use its content channels cross promotion to drive convergence benefits/quad play market share and much bigger revenue streams". "We believe that content is also becoming more important to tech given that it drives engagement which can be monetised across a broader ecosystem. Addressable TV will make FTA increasingly strategic as it will become by far and away the biggest platform for data driven targeted video advertising with very high quality, brand safe ad inventory." Liberty Global, which could soon have a big chunk of cash from Vodafone if its asset sale is waved through by regultors, already has a 10% stake in ITV. Should the UK become a bigger part of its portfolio and it have increased financial flexibility in the coming months, Cazenove says "it may look to realise potential synergies" by buying ITV.[link]
contrarianstyle
11 May 2018
JPM target price increase A target price increase from JP Morgan helped buoy ITV shares up 4 percent. The broker said the broadcaster's valuation was attractive and its viewing share was growing. It lifted its target from £1.85 to £2
jackdawsson
11 May 2018
Re: ITV @155.77 shares - sold 168.22 "Jack, as an old fashioned investor, hardly ever doing quick trades, except in extenuating circumstances, I was struck by a line in your last post: " I'm disinclined to push my luck too much."Obviously luck plays it part in the success or failure of any investment, but to what extent do you think luck plays a greater part in leveraged trades if at all? In other words, isn't leveraged trading more akin to gambling pure and simple?That would explain overall losses likely the longer people use this strategy, which is also true of casinos or betting on horses.Just curious, I have no agenda and am not trying to 'make a point". I too would commend you on your honest posts reporting losses as well as gains."========== ========== ========== ========== Hi Norman,Thanks & you raise some valid points, including questions which rarely leave me, especially in the context of leverage due to its greater risks. In brief, I think an element of luck plays some part with markets in general. Especially in reaching approximate targets within certain timeframes. But it's by no means paramount, including with leverage, for reasons I'll give later. Too much emphasis on luck would also allow some easy excuses, as opposed to taking full responsibility for one's errors. I've made plenty. As I need to leave my desk fairly pronto a few hours, I'll get back to you later this afternoon with an honest & slightly more comprehensive reply, as your observations deserve. Regards.
