Boyobach
27 Mar 2018
Berenberg highly critical of ISAT Berenberg highly critical of Inmarsat (from a week ago):A report on London-based satellite operator Inmarsat apparently makes for 'Troubling reading': Equity analysts at Berenberg Bank, commenting on Inmarsat’s recent disappointing results said that the operator’s formal guidance for the year ahead has given “investors little reason to put fresh money into Inmarsat, in our view”.The bank says that Inmarsat’s story now appears void of exciting growth and asks ‘where did the [expected] growth go? “In recent years, Inmarsat has spent c$1.6 billion on four Global Xpress satellites, c$200 million on its S-band satellite, over $100 million on the aviation payload for Qatar Airways and over $150 million on success-based capex (terminals). All things being equal, one would therefore expect that over $2 billion of growth capex would see a top-line CAGR higher than the guided mid-single digits,”Link to article: [link]
killermanjarrow
27 Mar 2018
Re: EAN Setback in Belgium If you read the arguments and the decision from the court, then it is very clear that the annulment is based on a technicality of the BIPT failing to do the required verification on the Complementary Ground Components (CGC). The question still remains. Does Viasat have a point about the CGCs? This bit in the decision would suggest that they do have a point "Such verification has, for that matter, already been carried out by the regulator of the United Kingdom, OFCOM, in its decision published in October 2017 authorising Inmarsat’s ground stations (Annex 9 to Viasat’s file). On the basis of the information provided by Inmarsat and as a result of its assessment of the issue, OFCOM has come to the conclusion that Inmarsat’s ground stations could be authorized but that, given the importance of the terrestrial component of the system and the fact that the EAN service can technically be provided without the satellite terminal being installed by the airlines, OFCOM would carefully monitor the deployment of the EAN in order to ensure that the ground-based stations are indeed being used as complementary ground components of the EAN (abovementioned decision, § 4.9 and 4.10)."I think it will be impossible for Viasat to prove their point given the low level detail to get to the bottom of the technical argument over the implementation details of the EAN. My take is that Ofcom ticked a box for the EU by this vague ruling on the CGCs and that, if the BIPT had done something similar then this annulment would not have happened.I think Viasat know that they can't win with their main argument but they are clearly having some success based on box ticking that hasn't been done. The Inmarsat spokesperson says"We are confident that the regulator (BIPT) will address the procedural issues raised and will expedite the reissuance of the authorisation.”If this does happen quickly then it'll prove that Viasat aren't going to get anywhere by going down this route. My view is that the EAN is an impressive technological project that is going to be a great success and Viasat won't be able to stop it. Time will tell
Boyobach
25 Mar 2018
EAN Setback in Belgium [link] — A Belgian court revoked approval for Inmarsat’s European Aviation Network in the country after fleet operator Viasat challenged the legality of its authorization.The Market Court of the Brussels Court of Appeal on March 14 said it has annulled the Belgian Institute for Postal services and Telecommunications (BIPT) approval of Inmarsat’s use of terrestrial towers for the network, designed to provide Wi-Fi inflight for aircraft over Europe. The reversal threatens to rip a hole, albeit a small one, in the network Inmarsat completed just last month.
churjones
16 Mar 2018
Re: bought I like you have bought into this share today, the second lot bought within a month, I'm putting a lot of faith in onboard internet, for aircraft and with the new satellites due soon seems an obvious choice for the future, but a hold at present regards
elliottsilverman
16 Mar 2018
Bought at 399 to average down to 480p ... will be holding for the long haul ...
paul1945
16 Mar 2018
bought at 395 to aver !best of luck to me & all
Boyobach
15 Mar 2018
Re: If a 'Take Over' offer was to come in, w... Rather stating the obvious, I guess the choice would be either a competitor or an organisation in a closely related field looking to expand into areas where ISAT have expertise and are successful. There are some US contenders - Iridium comes to mind - but maybe Chinese and/or European interests would challenge potential US dominance in this very strategic niche. Hostile bids can be made at any price - I think the average premium is around 30% to 40% but I recall that Kraft's failed attempt at Unilever was at only 18%. The Jefferies analysis, posted here by Blackprince on Monday, postulated an imagined Echostar bid of £10 at +30% above an ISAT sp of £7.70, (ISAT was around this level until early September, of course).On that basis a credible but optimistic bid today might conceivably start as low as 520p - although I think it would be fanciful to suppose that it would be successful. On Tuesday I suggested that controlling shareholders would not countenance a bid below the mid price enjoyed until September, say around £7.50. I'm sure many would still regard that as cheap (such as Jefferies analysts presumably) but then the market obviously doesn't rate ISAT too highly at the moment.Personally, I don't think there'll be a bid - it's just the 'go-to' thing when an sp falls to a supposedly cheap level.
Medway Man
15 Mar 2018
If a 'Take Over' offer was to come in, who is it likely to be? Obviously the share price is at an attractive level for other companies to be looking at ISAT whether tentatively or in-depth.If an offer is to be made (disregarding how the share price does in the mean time); who is it likely to come from and what sort of price????
killermanjarrow
14 Mar 2018
Re: Analyst notes yep, you can't fault Numis who seem to have had a crystal ball when it comes to ISAT. Very pleased to see that they've called the bottom!GLA
Boyobach
14 Mar 2018
Analyst notes Yesterday's note from Numis is interesting, given that they've called this pretty well so far:'.... upgrades its investment rating on Inmarsat PLC (LON:ISAT) to hold (from sell) and raised its price target to 450p (from 400p).'Meanwhile Morgan Sranley, which has been more behind the curve, has today cut its target to 500.
dongo
14 Mar 2018
Re: Director dealing 1000 share bought and on a five figure salary, nothing!!!!
Boyobach
13 Mar 2018
Re: Director dealing Big deal ! - I reckon a few of us around here have more skin in the game than that.
Boyobach
13 Mar 2018
Re: price Well, perhaps it hasn't worked out quite so well for Ripley after all - or for me at the moment, come to that. The market may have been indecisive at first but has made up for it now.The price certainly did get driven below my warning line at 420 and now it's well into the free fall zone. Am I buying? No fear! I've seen this happen elsewhere a few times and, although I'm likely to buy at some point, I'll wait for this one to fully succumb to gravity: I'd much rather accumulate something in stages on the way up - keeping my average sp below current than do the reverse.Whilst it might logically hold around here (380), if anyone has a credible chart theory about where it might next find genuine support I'd be interested -there's obviously some fragile previous form at 360 and 300 but anything down to around 275 looks feasible to me now.Regarding 'take-over' scenarios - I rather regret hinting at that old Jefferies story in a post last week. It's the sort of straw we do tend to grasp when the market turns against one of our pet investments. There's an obvious flaw in supposing that the low sp makes a difference isn't there? - Jefferies thought that EchoStar might bid £10-£15, and rationalises that this represents some sort of fair t/o value. If that is truly the case then such an offer is hardly dependent on whether the current market sp is £5 or £3.80 . Yes, a bid might come in, maybe up to 2x current - say £7.60. That's hardly what many holders of the last four years might have hoped, although it would do me handsomely. At one time I thought it might have made a suitable BT acquisition - in the days when BT had a bit more oomph and a bit less baggage.In the meantime, it rather looks like there's going to be plenty of time to sus this one out as it doesn't seem set to recover for a while. Maybe it'll level off when the yield is back up to 5% and more appropriate to the apparently perceived risks? It's already up to about 3.75% I think, another quid off might do it on that basis.
paul1945
13 Mar 2018
Director dealing + 9650
Flashboy
13 Mar 2018
Re: bought in today check your stop loss. £4 needs to hold this week!
