Boyobach
09 Apr 2018
Re: price The 'highest highs' continue to be ever lower for ISAT - more technically, the trend is ever lower - certainly since March 6th but,critically, since the annual results. This still seems to have some way to go unless it regains and holds 360 convincingly in the next few days. Every 'inverse head and shoulders' on ISAT's chart has been a fake bottom so far. Ripley was 'in' at 335 - if you are 'long' then you'll be hoping he judged it well!
elliottsilverman
05 Apr 2018
@ paul1945: what's the point in selling now? Seems to me to be just locking in losses... also, how will you know when to get back in? You could miss a leap upwards and compound your aggregate loss in so doing, over the long term.
BassCadet
05 Apr 2018
Re: Reuters article Negative indeed but firmly speculative for now. It's going to be an interesting 2 years for sure.
Boyobach
04 Apr 2018
Re: price I guess you had your reasons Ripley - ISA timing and all that - so 'Good Luck!' But when this sunk below yet another of my red lines (360) I decided to stay well back and see if it gets down to - and holds - 300. I'm now anticipating buying in the high 200's.In the meantime, Digital Look indicates that Credit Suisse rated this an outperform with target sp 810 as recently as 9th March. RBC were apparently touting 725 on the 14th March. What kinda crystal ball are they using I wonder! Most other recent brokers are now 'hold/neutral' with targets between 420 and 575. The average for all the March brokers on Digital Look puts this at above a fiver. Seems bizarre - but then they've tended to be much too high for a long time now.
paul1945
04 Apr 2018
Re: price best of luck hope fortune favours the brave best 2 buy when flat rather than all look too high
Ripley94
04 Apr 2018
Re: price Looking to buy something for ISA topped up more here @ 334.84 p
Footsie Explorer
04 Apr 2018
Re: price I've had as much as I can take so sadly I am out at a heavy loss - would buy back when this market turmoil is over and the signs for Inmarsat are more positiv
Boyobach
04 Apr 2018
Re: price Just three weeks ago I flippantly suggested that around 275 looked feasible for a couple of reasons: chart based and restoration of yield to around 5%. The sp of the last few days has remained on course for that. Wasn't the IPO thirteen years ago priced at about 245p? ISAT regrettably looks like a one-way ticket for the time being.
killermanjarrow
28 Mar 2018
Re: EAN Setback in Belgium Couldn't agree more with you Boyobach. I think things will turn and given the history it could be a rapid rise but it's been pretty unpleasant so far (worse than my usual aim purchases)!
Boyobach
28 Mar 2018
Re: EAN Setback in Belgium Agreed KMJ - and apologies for my typo - CGC Complementary Ground Component (not CGS).Like you, I don't plan to add at this point but may do if I sense that the bottom has genuinely been reached. Not even Numis suspected the depths to which this would fall.I'm not quite as forgiving in my view of the company as BassCadet seems to be in his post: Although I'm confident about ISAT's technical competence and capabilities, I think guidance has been poor and that the dividend policy was wrong going into 2017 (and maybe even prior to that) given the obvious need for capital investment. The volatility of this sp seems to be to some extent due to the company's business strategy, financial planning and communications. It's been pretty disappointing and possibly unnecessarily so. I think Berenberg have a point.
killermanjarrow
28 Mar 2018
Re: EAN Setback in Belgium >I'm wondering how the CGS would provide connectivity over the sea, non >participating areas (eg Belgium) and sustain data between ground 'cells' >without the satellite component? It seems to me that Viasat's argument boils down the semantics of the 'C' (Complementary). I think it's a close call with the EAN implementation and I reckon that it's too close for Viasat to win their case. They're clearly putting a lot of effort into trying to stop Inmarsat and I think it's because they know that their product won't be competitive, in terms of performance, with the EAN solution.I've averaged down too many times to top up again but I believe that the In-flight WiFi call will pay off for ISAT.
killermanjarrow
28 Mar 2018
Re: Berenberg highly critical of ISAT So they say that formal guidance has given "investors little reason to put fresh money into Inmarsat, in our view."and later go onto say"Having said that, we consider the new revenue guidance to be somewhat prudent"Divi cut was prudent and now guidance figures are also prudent. I think this bodes well for the future. EAN is forecast to go live in the first half of the year and I believe it will win IAG a lot of business customers who would have flown Easyjet. Easyjet will then be looking adopt the best in-flight WiFi service in Europe which, in terms of bandwidth, will be Inmarsat's offering.
BassCadet
28 Mar 2018
Final results. It's taken me ages to get round to reading the results.The high level story appears to be strong growth in all areas but reduced margins due to a drive to capture market share.Profit after tax steeply down by just over $100M but costs up nearly $200M as a result of investment in major infrastructure including 2 satellite launches. CAPEX was at the top end of guidance. I would hope it settles down toward the $500M side for coming years as 2017 was a big one for launches. That would at least restore profits to what they were but is just speculation at this stage.With that backdrop I agree that the dividend cut is a sensible move.There have been 2 negative analyst reports that seem to focus on low growth guidance I don't see this as a problem. Low margins are expected to reverse over the medium term returning to high profitability which will make the investment worth it and allow the dividend to return. Only fly in the ointment is a strange statement about wholesalers taking more of the pie. I don't know if that's a temporary or permanent change.Unfortunately there's still a couple of years of high investment to go so we could be stuck down here for a while. On the other hand, this investment is described as, "Once in a generation." Feels like a certain amount of short termism involved in the current SP.I can never quite reconcile all the different mnemonics and programs in Aviation but 3000 planes in the pipeline and 20% market share sounds like they are ahead of target.There's also a good wildcard for future growth in IoT so the future looks bright. I guess it's time for patience.
Boyobach
27 Mar 2018
Re: EAN Setback in Belgium I'm wondering how the CGS would provide connectivity over the sea, non participating areas (eg Belgium) and sustain data between ground 'cells' without the satellite component? The satellite path seems to provide the essential glue that makes the EAN proposition workable. Maybe the satellite could not continuously carry all the data - but that isn't its function - its essential contribution may be ensuring continuity of connectivity, without which the enterprise fails.
Boyobach
27 Mar 2018
Re: EAN Setback in Belgium Indeed KMJ - and EAN is effectively a 'competitor' to ISAT's own GX Aviation product - so ISAT seems to have this region covered, whilst Viasat seem to be munching on sour grapes....However, the Berenberg view I posted is less encouraging.
