soi
14 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP 431.68 long............................448.08 closed + 16.3soi
elliottsilverman
14 Feb 2018
@ascatix - yeah, I think people are underestimating the market for in-flight wifi - I think it's a massive opportunity to be exploited. Airlines are increasingly looking to ancillaries for revenue and selling the base seat cheap so it plays into this aswell provided ISAT has a good chunk of the wedge. There are barriers to entry for new aspiring providers of in-flight wifi also. I'm sticking with ISAT despite being down about 10% currently on average purchase price... GLA
acsatix
14 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP at some point the capex challenge will go away and we will have tons of cash coming in... unless the service does not pick up of course but the pricing I see on BA seems reasonable for most pockets to take a dip and enjoy some in flight connectivity... also we do not know the revenue model but it may be we have a guaranteed income from airlines while airlines take the risk, or revenue sharing arrangements or a mix thereof... I mean being outright negative now is probably a mistake. what will matter is some visibility on future revenues that should come with a future guidance for e.g. 2019 2018 is already known to be incremental with a 1.5 B high end... and 1300 low end... let us see what happens....
elliottsilverman
14 Feb 2018
Many people consider the Altman Z-score less relevant nowadays as it's based on an outdated sample of much smaller companies relative to today. Still, it may provide another data point to consider. However, the retained earnings has a powerful effect on the z-score and in ISAT's case increasing it by between 100m and 200m brings the z-score into the 'grey zone' which is inconclusive regarding likelihood of bankruptcy. And of course, a quick and simple, albeit painful, way to increase retained earnings is to slash the dividend by a similar amount. This would wipe the dividend more or less completely which they prob. won't want to do, but a cut of ca. 50% seems unavoidable soon.
BassCadet
14 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP I would say not unless there has been a change in stance by lenders. The last few years have gone exactly to plan with slightly better than expected results all the way through.The HSBC note must have taken a few pence off yesterday. The dividend is under threat due to this planned period of CAPEX for GX but how many times do we have to price that in?
IAmShareCrazy
13 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP Could it be that the companies finances are under stress? It has Altman Z score that bankruptcy could happen in the next two years. Not guaranteed of course.
FRTEB
13 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP Just posted a chart on twitter - OceanEscape
FRTEB
13 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP "then extend the line..." An extra 'the' got in there somehow. Sorry 'bout that.
FRTEB
13 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP FWIW... If you draw a straight line between the lows in Oct 2005 and Oct 2008 then the extend the line, it joins up perfectly with a ghost spike down to 383.50 on 06/06/2017. This is currently support at ~391 (and slowly rising). Manipulation at its blatant finest. You couldn't make it up.
danshelton
13 Feb 2018
I spotted this earlier on the FT, could be the reason for today's drop: [link] told clients: “Because of the high level of capital expenditure and inflated operating expenses, Inmarsat’s dividend in cash is not covered. It could, however, remain at recent levels if management can demonstrate its confidence in the outlook. We believe a scrip dividend without cash would be artificial but is an option to consider, although it has not said anything on this..”
NoMorePlungers
13 Feb 2018
HSBC downgrade [link]
elliottsilverman
13 Feb 2018
The dividend might be one of the issues...i.e. it's currently not covered by profits @ 115% of same and this is projected to increase to 145% by 2021 according to Simply Wall St. analysis so it's reasonable to guess that it may be cut by between 25% and 40% leaving it much less enticing than its current yield. It would be more within the normal range of an income share trading at ca. £4 though....I hope I am wrong and this can move back up to closer to its value which is above £8 based on discounted cashflow method, again from Simply Wall St...
Contrariwise
13 Feb 2018
Do I not like that? I have sold out at a big loss today at an average price of 425p. Not sure what is going on but I have seen this movie too many times: decent yield, no particularly bad news, but share price just drifts steadily lower. Centrica, BT, Carillion, Interserve, Provi. I was hanging on in hope but today was the final straw - market steady after a big drop, but ISAT has failed to rally and instead has headed lower. The price exhibits all the signs of insider selling. Someone knows something. The shares could go much lower from here. Hope I am wrong. Good luck all.
BassCadet
13 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP It's toying with your stop soi.
soi
13 Feb 2018
Re: Nuts SP 431.68 long.I`ve placed a - 12 stop, very rare for me on individual equities.Won`t help if it gaps down of course.soi
