Hyperproject
15 Jan 2018
Re: What�s The Problem do the Maths Hello Numberbiter, that was sound advice that you gave, nevertheless I reviewed the Maths and still came up with 120p....plus some. Today I am not feeling any way righteous, in fact it’s quite humbling to be logically questioned and then going back over the figures, your comment on greed and getting out whilst showing a good profit cannot be argued against, I think we both have a little smile this morning.
djark
15 Jan 2018
Re: What�s The Problem do the Maths Hello numberbiter "There is no way that this share will hit 120p, because the financial position is so dire. If you wait that long you will lose all your gains"Or not.As with all share predictions it is silly to say anything too categoric.IMHO I'd suggest that Interserve may now benefit even further from Carillion's demise.Or not.
Omaha man
10 Jan 2018
New management Thbis trading statement just emphasises how disappointing it was to have to wait so long for the new Chief Exec to be installed. The drift under the old management went on for at least 6 months longer than should have been allowed.Hopefully now the banks will support the restructuring and with the Energy from Waste debacle behind us we will be able to see some benefit from the sizeable contract base.
djark
03 Jan 2018
Re: As predicted The market appears to be generous.....unless you are in the 7% shorting the stock.I think this has been oversold.There will be a clear out in the sector, but I think Interserve is through the worst and has got some quality contracts. Others have bigger problems to sort.[link] market became overly competitive and Divisional MDs across the board in all these companies were bidding for revenue. I hope lessons have been learned at Main Board level. If all you have to offer is "cheap" you run out of places to go after a while.IMHO - a long term hold and hopefully others got in at close to the bottom.
djark
02 Jan 2018
Daily Telegraph [link]
gallant02
20 Dec 2017
Re: As predicted Having missed the last opportunity and seeing the sp drift back to 63p I have now taken the 2nd chance the market seems to have provided to get out for a while. Would prefer to pocket a gain now and sit on the fence until matters settle. I do feel they have the support of lenders so will keep an eye out for any drift back down.Now a matter of keeping hold of my gains from the missus during the January sales...Merry Xmas and HNY all!
gallant02
15 Dec 2017
Re: Extra debt The sp fell substantially based on concerns that the company was about to breach covenant raising the prospect of Administration or heavily dilutive debt/ equity swap. Neither has happened so while the jury is still out it does at least show they have the support of lenders (and customers judging from contract wins) so I envisage some recovery in the sp to around the recent high of 94p if not more.It seems a decent punt for the braver among us....
wuffet
14 Dec 2017
Re: Extra debt HiDon't think a rights would work at these levels. Say they raise 300m at 40p that means total shares in issue would rise from 146m to 900m, extremely dilutory. There would be a bit of interest saving but EPS would fall to about 6p next year and ex rights would be about 44p, that puts them on over seven times which is not all that cheap given the capital destruction!! - and they would still have debt. There is not much upside on that basis and you would have to subscribe for over 5 new shares for every one you own . good luck
farmerdave
14 Dec 2017
Extra debt Erm - extra 180m of debt and monetising fx hedges? Not sure that solves anything apart from buying a little extra time. Total debt now getting ery worrisome and I think we are still in the running for some sort of equity injection - rights ?fd
forwardloop
19 Nov 2017
Shorting IC,s in passing commentNext to Interseve (7%), Mitie is currently UKs most heavily shorted out-sources stock (6.9%)
Uncle Doug
07 Nov 2017
Re: As predicted "As predicted, the 'market' has given holders of this share a chance to get out. The market is not renowned for giving too many chances."---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------Hi numberbiter - Now at 87p - that's 13% up on your Strong Sell recommendation. Got any more predictions?
nk1999
22 Oct 2017
Liberum From Citywire on Friday:"Interserve is ‘cheap enough’ after two shocks, hopes Liberum Liberum is sticking with its ‘buy’ recommendation on Interserve (IRV) after taking the pain of two profits warnings from the support services and construction business.Shares in the company crashed over 50% last month after it issued a profits warning and said it was looking at options to maximise cash generation. Yesterday they plunged another 27% or 24.5p to 65.5p after revealing a further deterioration in trading left it at risk of breaching its bank loan agreements.It now expects second half operating profits to be about half the level of last year and has made an additional £35 million provision against cost-overruns in its energy-to-waste contracts.Liberum analyst Joe Brent retained his ‘buy’ rating but lowered share price target from 180p to 150p. ‘PwC has been appointed by the company to help with the discussion, which are being described as “constructive”, as they always are – until they aren’t,’ said Brent. ‘We expect discussions to be wide-ranging and to include identifying disposal opportunities within the business.’Despite Interserve’s problems he added that its order book had increased from £7.1 billion at the interims to £7.4 billion. ‘Clear financial risks but the revised current year 2018 price/earnings of 1.7x is cheap enough,’ he said. "
numberbiter
21 Oct 2017
Re: What�s The Problem do the Maths Hyper, what you say is correct. You are obviously much cleverer than me. To know where the bottom is and to get out before the main crash demonstrates exceptional ability. Now we KNOW you can predict the bottom after a major profits warning, as your previous posting confirms this. The key now is the most difficult part; knowing when to get out! There is no way that this share will hit 120p, because the financial position is so dire. If you wait that long you will lose all your gains. A key rule in investing (and for that matter all forms of gambling) is not to be greedy. A 37% gain is a fabulous return so take it now, or at least some of it.
Hyperproject
21 Oct 2017
WhatÂ’s The Problem do the Maths 55p to 76p since Thursday, that’s around 37% increase in two days. I have done the maths and 8.6 out of 10 companies that bomb on dreadful news (All banks, Glencore, Serco etc), do extreamly well, even though nearly all of them are way down on their all time highs, but who cares with gains of 50% to 300%. IRV also are in my opinion likely to be around 120p by year end, which is rubbish from the high of 700p but ok from 55p. I agree that it is hard to jump in when panic hits, nevertheless, look at the maths, and the 1.4 out of 10? even if they disappear down the pan completely....I will happily take that. Remember the dead Lion on the Tate and Lyle syrup can.....”out of the dead came forth sweetness”.
numberbiter
20 Oct 2017
As predicted As predicted, the 'market' has given holders of this share a chance to get out. The market is not renowned for giving too many chances.
