onewayticket
25 Jan 2018
Re: Liberum comment 31st March for the banks joeIdeally prefer the thought that there will be several pieces of good news in between times and it nearer 150p Then a deal struck with the banks on the covenants for a further "survival boost" Then an RI if that is required.The credentials of the CEO are what is the convincer presently. Own due diligence.
onewayticket
25 Jan 2018
Re: 120p Finish NearlyWhat you have to admire is the character and resilience of the rebounds.That's several times now its recovered. It has friends.Own due diligence
cashflowjoe
25 Jan 2018
Liberum comment Regarding Kier shares soaring Joe Brent from Liberum suggests 'Clearly, the market is nervous following Carillion's liquidation last week. However, if there has to be another Carillion, and hopefully this does not happen every week, we would be much more concerned about Interserve, where the price placement notes are trading in the forties, the equity is dead without a rights issue, and a debt-for-equity swap is a real possibility.' This was posted on Citywire today.My views are that to get a rights issue away the share price needs to stay above 100p. Maybe a two for one at 60p or something might cut it with the banks. They would want to see fresh capital raised by equity holders to share the risk and some assets sold to reduce debt. Trouble is the best bits would be sold off. They are in the driving seat as short term funding will soon need repaying/extending. Banks have their own share holders to worry about. Unless the new CEO has a few hundred million to lend IRV then the banks are really running things in a way. CEO's normally take money out of a company not put it in.This is not about Interserve so much as a company which I am sure will survive in some form as about how much equity holders will take a(further) hit.
onewayticket
25 Jan 2018
120p Finish Is it on the cards againCan the good lady convince the bankers on 31/03/18. The previous track record says yes and she has just over a further 2 months of a further track record to bring to the table.Sometimes in life you have to speculate to accumulate and especially to gain the bigger returns.Own due diligence
onewayticket
25 Jan 2018
Keep Up the Good Work Debbie She does appear to have all the right credentials for the job with a background in Finance and Public sector work and a good track record of delivery.[link] due diligence
onewayticket
24 Jan 2018
As Debbie said "10 January 2018UPDATE ON 2017 YEAR END AND EXPECTATIONS FOR 2018· 2017 performance in-line with expectations outlined in October update· 'Fit for Growth' programme expected to deliver £40m-£50m benefit by 2020· 2018 operating profit expected to be ahead of current market expectations· Constructive discussions with lenders over longer-term funding are progressing Interserve ('the Group') provides the following update ahead of the announcement of its 2017 full year results.Overall 2017 trading performance before exceptional items is consistent with the trends outlined in the October market update and in-line with market expectations.As previously announced, testing of the Group's year-end covenant position has been deferred until 31st March 2018. The Group anticipates that net debt at year-end 2017 will be circa £513m, reflecting the significant outflow in the year relating to Energy from Waste, a normalisation of trading terms with our supply chain and exceptional costs. Whilst we anticipate that future cashflows from energy from waste will be broadly neutral, we expect net debt to peak in the first half of FY18 due to the phasing of cashflows relating to energy from waste costs which have already been provided, exceptional costs relating to restructuring actions and the current refinancing activity. Discussions with the Group's lenders are progressing and a further announcement with regards to its longer-term funding arrangements will be made in due course.In order to establish a strong foundation from which the Group can move forward, the new management team has been engaged in a comprehensive review of the Group's contract portfolio and a thorough review of the Group's non-trading balance sheet items. This work is progressing well and the outcomes will be announced alongside a presentation of the Group's longer term strategy for value creation at the time of the Group's 2017 annual results presentation.The Group is making good progress with 'Fit for Growth', the three-year programme launched by the new management team in October 2017. 'Fit for Growth' is focused on increasing the Group's organisational efficiency, improving Group-wide procurement processes and ensuring greater standardisation and simplification across the business. Management are confident that the cost savings and management actions identified will contribute at least £40-50m to Group operating profit by 2020, with the in-year impact in 2018 estimated to be £15m. As a result of the 'Fit for Growth' initiatives, the Group's operating profit for 2018 is now expected to be ahead of current market expectations. A full update on the programme will be provided as part of the 2017 annual results presentation. Debbie White, Interserve's Chief Executive, said:"The new management team, and the Board, have been working to stabilise the business and provide a sound foundation to continue to serve our customers effectively, underpin our future growth and to restore shareholder value. This work has focused on managing the balance sheet, conducting a thorough assessment of the contract portfolio, and introducing new management disciplines, processes and cost controls under the 'Fit for Growth' programme." The market does like to present opportunities.Own due diligence
onewayticket
24 Jan 2018
Re: Manipulated today Computer program dealing today in small amounts and specifically late afternoon being allowed to manipulating things on very little volume. I a shame that markets are allowed to work like this. Buyers though were sensing a buy opportunity, probably against the 3 year chart.Own due diligence.
onewayticket
24 Jan 2018
Re: Manipulated today 31rst March is next revisit on the banking covenants.That's a good couple of months breathing space to continue with the cost cutting and the turnaround.Own due diligence
onewayticket
24 Jan 2018
Manipulated today And no real reason that I can see why, therefore presenting good value again.Its March time for resolving the banking covenant situation. In the meantime the Board have made an encouraging start at drawing a line in the sand and with further review ongoing. Their credentials and achievements in the interim will be what counts.I think provided they keep the turnaround going then they will get a vote of confidence off the banks, who it has to be said simply won't want another Carillion.Although nothing straight lines, if the turnaround continues then the share price should reflect the progress. Own due diligence
onewayticket
23 Jan 2018
Kier kicks things off [link] due dili
Biker Grove
21 Jan 2018
Prompt Payments My company is heavily involved with Interserve, to the tune of multiple £100K's. I am watching and reading every thing I can to get a view on what is the likely outcome.Much to our surprise, in the last few months Interserve have been exemplary with their payments. I can only suggest that they know that at the slightest hint of trouble with payment, and the building sites will grind to a halt.We were heavily involved with Carillion some 5 years ago but stopped working for them due to their appalling attitude to sub -contractors.We received our final retention payment from Carillion mid last year, some 4 years after the work was completed, which is not unusual in the construction industry.
cashflowjoe
19 Jan 2018
Own Due Diligence This is just a slightly less bad Carillion. They would have breached banking covenants but got additional short term funding to cover themselves - for now. The funding was short term and modest. A weak balance sheet and declining share price over 5 years says it all really.Is there an upside? Well the Daily Telegraph states ' A report from professional services firm EY earlier this month found that support services and facilities management companies are unlikely to improve their profits next year as wage inflation and increased competition weigh on trading.' That implies no material upside for 2018.Is there a downside. Oh yes. Don't trust the Cabinet. There is a saying in political circles 'that when things get really bad, just lie.' They may not go the way of Carillion but some serious fund raising is needed and for any sort of placing or rights issue then confidence in the company is required. I can see the shares at 50p this year. Just remember profit warnings normally come in threes. Every share seems to have its cheerleader but this share is just too risky even at 122p. It might bounce to 140p on sentiment short term but that would be a time to get out for longs. Winning big contracts requires massive amounts of working capital upfront to start work and with a weak balance sheet I don't see IRV coping. Banks are getting edgy after what happened to Carillion. Actually I see this as a short.But it would mean more research on how bad IRV are squeezing their subbies, how slow they are at paying suppliers due to cash constraints, more detailed analysis of their annual report, etc. Due Diligence Done for now!
Ripley94
17 Jan 2018
Re: Daily Telegraph Interesting posts from mid DEC when the price was about 70p.
onewayticket
17 Jan 2018
Shares article A bit more reliable than the earlier source. Nice to see some balanced comments included.[link] due diligence
onewayticket
17 Jan 2018
Re: Recovery Play Ripley sorry to hear you got caught out with Carillion. Its nearer £900 by the looks of things at the close as its virtually back to yesterdays closing price which I thought would happen. It boiled down to the credibility of the news source and what was the potential audience. A few parents on a school run listening to the radio. Mmmm. If the market makers want to drop it again by 20% with a similar story then I and I think a few more will look to profit. There were virtually no trades to drop the price.In addition it wont change the approach of the new Board who seem intent on reviewing things. If anything its says HMG don't want another collapse. The banks will be in exactly the same frame of mind.Hopefully you get to recoup some of your monies on Interserve and elsewhere. Maybe take a look at Velocys (VLS) where I think it has been nailed to the floor and poorly advised on a criminally discounted Placing and Open Offer. It should have settled at twice its present share price. Many games out of the box of tricks there. There are many others out there. Own due diligence
