IQE Live Discussion

alwaysabeliever 24 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? You have never called it right. If you had you would have made a veritable fortune. Instead you witter on about what you have achieved in business and your success in the markets as if any of us are interested or more importantly believe your boastful statements. All you have ever done is castigate the directors and give them credit for virtually nothing. You disappeared when the price reached 1.80 because that was something you never predicted in your wildest dreams and now here you are yet again with your I told you so nonsense. Move on you lost money on IQE nobody really cares? You really do need to get a life.

zanshin 24 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? Sold on today’s spike at 75.45. May go higher, and has the momentum to do so, but only ever looked on this as a short term trade. Hoping for slight pullback so I can start trading short term moves on limit orders as planned. GL

zanshin 21 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? jackdawsson: The weakness of UK’s government is my biggest concern. Whilst a Corbyn government, even if in alliance with the SNP, seems by no means very likely, IMO, it’s far from inconceivable. That’d cause a massive exit from UK markets. So I hope to be mostly in cash well before he gets a chance… just in case. Hi JD, Couldn’t agree more. As mentioned previously, as part of my investment strategy, such as it is, I buy and hold some larger FOOTSIE stocks. The purpose is to build a core holding with reasonable and consistent dividend income and, hopefully, growth. For example, SSE and UU, both of which would suffer a significant reduction in the SP should there be a serious risk of another general election, followed by a government headed by Mr Corbyn. Both might be seen as targets for renationalisation. His desire to reverse this aspect of the Thatcher years comes with no published plan of how he would achieve this that I can find, and I would take the assumption that he and a labour government would steal the shares from the present holders, much as Stephen Byers did when Railtrack was removed from private investors. The 5 year parliament should present some stability against which to make longer term investments, but the recent shenanigans in parliament, where MPs want to revote on subjects where they recently made a committed decision has weakened the government’s position and heightened the risk of investing. I want to be a long term investor in companies, but have to take a shorter term view to reduce risk of loss, so am looking to convert back to cash when profitable to do so. GL

jackdawsson 21 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? zanshin: Re your AIM experience, there are some good companies listed on AIM that have been good to investors. There are some basket cases too. I’ve experienced both and am also cautious. However, my biggest negative holdings are in the FOOTSIE, (LLOY and BARC for instance), simply because I was prepared to invest more in them and hold. Contrarily, some of my greatest gains have been with AIM companies (eg TSTL and BUR), and persistent short term trades with IQE have been profitable, but I am wary of long term holds in the AIM market. Hi Zanshin, Thanks. Very informative post regarding the EC & why the recent greater bullishness for UK’s semi-conductor manufacturers. Also a balanced take on AIM. I’ve no doubt you’re right. For some of us it’s just a case of finding enough time to do more quality research on lesser known stocks to sift the wheat from the chaff. That’s vital. Get it badly wrong & with much lower volumes seen across AIM, one can be down huge percentages in next to no time. Also agree about risk with many divi-paying FTSE stocks. That applies even when one buys well below L/T resistance levels, as I tend to. FWIW, I too am heavily invested in certain FTSE companies & currently hold ample paper losses (though recovering a lot recently): namely BARC & my biggest holds by far, LLOY & VOD. The latter one supposedly a defensive play, as was the case for a few years. But in recent months one of the FTSE’s biggest fallers. So no guarantees anywhere regardless of past trends. I’ll clarify that I also want to build a much bigger cash position as opportunities arise. Thus increasingly booking gains elsewhere & re-entering only with much smaller stakes. Reasons go beyond just Brexit. The weakness of UK’s government is my biggest concern. Whilst a Corbyn government, even if in alliance with the SNP, seems by no means very likely, IMO, it’s far from inconceivable. That’d cause a massive exit from UK markets. So I hope to be mostly in cash well before he gets a chance… just in case - GL.

zanshin 21 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? Hi JD, Some good progress here in the SP after a series of good news items to start the year. On the 7th Jan IQE announced a start date of 4th February 2019 for Tim Pullen, the new Chief Financial Officer. On the 8thJan IQE announced the successful conclusion of an Innovate UK funded project – ‘High Efficiency Manufacturing of Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Lasers (VCSELs). Neither of these news items moved the SP. The most significant piece of news, as indicated by shabby_2_sox , was the European Commission’s approval of an innovative plan, spearheaded by Wales that identifies compound semiconductors as an important sector. "The plan will unlock €1.75bn of funding for research activities, will bring in up to €6bn in private investment and will ultimately help bring new technology innovations to market. The project is the first integrated research, development and innovation IPCEI programme to be approved by the Commission, highlighting the European importance of microelectronics and compound semiconductors. It is expected to benefit both the Welsh and the wider UK economy by establishing South East Wales as the leading centre of compound semiconductor expertise. The UK element of the pan-European joint microelectronics research and innovation project was driven by the Welsh Government and involves three Welsh companies: IQE, Newport Wafer Fab and SPTS Technologies (an Orbotech company), along with Manchester based ICS Ltd." This would appear to be the company specific news currently driving the SP forward. Genrally the markets were also boosted by the prospect of a thawing of trading relationships between the US and China. A good start today has stalled around 70p, perhaps the start of the resistance you mentioned. At this price I am just in profit with my 2 tranches, but am holding on for continued upward momentum for now. Once we settle into a recognisable trading range I intend to revert to short term trading here. Re your AIM experience, there are some good companies listed on AIM that have been good to investors. There are some basket cases too. I’ve experienced both and am also cautious. However, my biggest negative holdings are in the FOOTSIE, (LLOY and BARC for instance), simply because I was prepared to invest more in them and hold. Contrarily, some of my greatest gains have been with AIM companies (eg TSTL and BUR), and persistent short term trades with IQE have been profitable, but I am wary of long term holds in the AIM market. GL

shabby_2_sox 21 Jan 2019

Sweeneys valedictory on ADVFN Eagle51 - I thought you might be interested in Dave Sweeney’s valedictory post on ADVFN on 3rd December last year and posted in full by Diplomat65 on 21 Jan 19 10.04 Still long on words and short on bottom line but it’s all going to kick off this year. I still remain invested and hopeful. I also re-read the last AGM report to cheer myself up over the week-end and also re-read Dr David Sweeney’s valedictory post dated 3rd December and re-post it here for those newcomers thinking of investing in IQE. As Sweenoid (his avatar) says at the end of of this brilliant summary, “If you can’t improve on the silence, say nothing.” On that note, surely Chris Meadows (IQE’s PR czar) could find a way around the NDA’s we are told IQE’s customers insist on and improve on the silence? Anyway, here is Sweenoid’s summary: "The only reason for me posting today is to pay a debt and to fulfil an obligation. I decided to stop posting here or anywhere else in late July after my Newport factory report,todays post will definitely be the last …anywhere. I could give the reasons, but I won’t, other than to say my life is more fulfilling and calmer , not visiting this or indeed any other social networking site,this post will be positive and upbeat, not negative and insulting. I am proud of my contribution here. Firstly, let me remind you, that many moons ago I challenged Sheepherder to a bet, related to the IQE SP at end of trading on 31st of December, I bet it would be 150p plus, he said it wouldn’t, fair dinkum, Sheepy rose to the challenge. The loser would pay £250 to the charity of choice of the winner. Well, no prizes for working out that I end up with egg on my face. I guess if you have to lose , it might as well be a comical loss…which it is and obviously will be. I can assure readers, that my wife has made a huge ‘humble pie’ and I will be eating it daily, to pay for my hubris. Good news is that Cancer Research UK gets £250, with gift aid that’s £300. Since I lost this bet so badly and to balance things out, I have made another similar donation, I decided not to make it to my original charity choice, rather it has gone to ‘Crisis’ appeal for the homeless , which seems apposite at this time of year. As part of the bet, the loser- me, had to provide proof of the donation, here it is THANK YOU, DAVID Today, your donation of £250.00 made a difference. YOUR DONATION DETAILS Donation amount: £250.00 Donation reference number: $$$$$$$$- blanked by me for privacy reasons. GIFT AID Thank you for agreeing to allow each and every one of your gifts made to Cancer Research UK to be treated as Gift Aid donations. I was going to sign off there, but decided to ‘scribble’ a few thoughts down, for the very last time, for anyone remotely interested. I should probably add that my IQE holding remains entirely intact after my 10% sell at a rather higher SP some time ago, in fact, given a ‘sale’ on the share price has occurred , I took the opportunity to make substantial buys at 58p and 60p , what a bargain , come now let alone next August! ,therefore my holding is even more ridiculously large than it was before, so thanks for that . This post is bullish, some may consider it a ramp, if so I really don’t care! If you are of an indelicate bearish constitution, or can’t bare my analysis , then stop reading now, no doubt ‘some’ will carry on reading, if for no other reason to rubbish me …there’s the rub for trying to report news/ information and attempting as best as I can to analyse it. All imho and dyor 1st - my thoughts on the recent ‘2’ trading statements. I was actually livid with rage after reading the 1st- issued at 4.20pm, short on facts, it appeared unconsidered and rushed. I did not see it till 10pm as along with not looking at bb’s, I only check the SP a few times a week these days- why bother when I won’t be selling till it gets to 150p plus, I do however continue my research on the technologies, the markets we are involved with and our customers. I was however very satisfied with the following days, qualified, considered and actually very positive and factual RNS. I demanded an explanation as to why the 1st RNS had to be issued so late in the day, I was not happy with Chris Meadows initial responses, and pushed and pushed. It transpires that the board were More or less ‘forced’ / ‘obliged’ to issue that RNS, by their NOMAD, ( IQE didn’t say that- its my interpretation)to conform with so called ‘regulatory rules’. Quite frankly, I believe the notion that a company is seemingly compelled to release such a damning but factually vacuous statement, when a more ‘informed’ response could be made, effectively 10 minutes later ( those 10 minutes cost some of us,many tens of thousands of £ ) is beyond belief,and I let the chairman and Chris know my view. I actually believe the company share my belief but can’t say so, the evening of the 1st trading statement was occupied by communication between every single board member and that resulted in what I believe is as good a statement as we could expect the following day, given our customers ( AMS and Lumentum) contemporary comments. The ‘lull’ in the VCSEL supply chain is related to Apple alone and has nothing to do with problems at IQE , something commentators fail to mention. 2019 is going to be the year that I have dreamed about for this stock, discounting macroeconomic ‘shocks’ everything IQE has been working toward will start to fall in place and many will produce very relevant revenue streams. My enthusiasm is increased by the imminent board changes, By the end of Q1 2019, IQE will have the ex CFO of ARM and the ex CEO of Cisco at the helm, to aid and abet the CEO.Phil Smith the new executive chairman is a dynamic individual with a huge industry wide reputation, I know from meeting him twice and by individual communication he is truly ‘up for the challenge’, I am totally confident that with him and Tim Pullen the new CFO as frontmen we will see a radical new stance to how the company represents it. The late CFO, Phil Rasmussen was a wonderful communicator but was woefully ( imho) underused to promote the company, I expect Tim Pullen to have a much higher profile with both public and institutional investors. We need 1 more new non- exec, I am expecting someone of stature. I salute Godfrey Ainsworth for his long standing efforts as chairman and doing sterling work as interim CFO as well as being executive chairman,post Phil’s untimely death, I am aware of the personal and business sacrifices he has made to steady the ship- thanks. VCSELS We have seen nothing yet in terms of the volume of VCSELS that will be needed going forward. Apple kicked it off ,but 2019 will see the limited ( as yet) use of 3D sensing and Face ID explode in the Android market, but come mid-point of next year the really BIG move will come with world-facing applications ( needing significantly higher numbers of VCSELS) . Innovation in smartphones has almost ground to a halt over the last 4 years, ok the CPU and GPU perform better, faster, more pixels etc and screen technology has advanced ,but essentially it’s more of the same…repeatedly. ALL the companies know that Augmented reality -AR WILL be the ‘killer’ application that drives demand, and provides the much needed innovation ,this functionality totally depends on world facing VCSEL technology. Of course the next major itineration of smartphones will also have to be 5G enabled - yum yum for IQE , as that depends on Compound Semiconductors too, more on that later. Of course the wireless market will within a few years actually be outpaced in terms of VCSEL demand by automotive and industrial applications. IQE at interims said they had more than 20 customers/ partners for VCSELS , the trading statement a few months later swells that number to more than 25- jolly spotto! , if you research the VCSEL module manufacturers it would appear IQE are working with literally the entire supply chain, only the biggest companies dual- source , go work it out. Don’t forget about Seagate HAMR ( heat assisted magnetic recording) , which uses VCSEL lasers, to generate the heat.Seagate are already producing 16TB HAMR storage disc drives and within 12 months the 1st commercial high volume 20TB HAMR drives will be in big volume production. 48TB drives by 2023?! Hyperscale customers, with relentlessly increasing storage demands will be big consumers. Those same hyperscale guys, the so called FAANG and BAT companies will also of course be massive consumers of our customers indium phosphide and gallium arsenide components mainly in their data centres. theregister.co.uk Seagate HAMRs out a roadmap for future hard drive recording tech 100TB by 2025/26? Bring it on Competition There has and always will be competition over all of IQE’s wafer divisions. Bears will quote any new start up who buy a reactor from Aixtron as a competitor- get real. There will be only a maximum of 3 real competitors in each division, for outsourced wafers. I am talking about companies that can produce quality, high volume, high yield wafers in multiple locations ( Big OEM’s demand multiple location producers, to eliminate geopolitical calamities). The biggest competition for IQE IMHO comes from 11-V1 and Finisar , it was music to my years to hear that the former has bid for the later takeovers distract management and create uncertainty within workforce’s and of course customers and potential customers , this has to be advantageous to IQE- go THINK on why. Competition is healthy but they are way behind , for reasons I have repeatedly stated in the past and still apply today, that’s why in the recent update,IQE were at pains to state that they fully expect to retain 90% of the outsourced VCSEL market during 2019- the year it really takes off, a very confident statement and given they will have good visibility ,very positive indeed.The competition is way behind us, and will be for some years to come, since acquisition and retention of customers is ‘sticky’IQE’s 1st mover advantages with a multiplicity of clients many of whom are already qualifying their products on IQE wafers AND reactors. I will repeat once again the validation and qualification process required for a module/ component in the compound Semiconductors business takes at least 6 months, once ‘employed’you have to really ‘suck’ to lose the gig! IQE have a solid gold reputation…and I don’t expect them to f**k up anytime soon. GAN on Silicon I have been banging on about the potential revenues here for years . Well at last it is starting to flow, acknowledgment in the trading statement. Initially with RF GAN and then with Power, I would draw your attention to the recent Macom ( our main partner here, whose CEO acknowledges the crucial part that IQE play in their supply chain) conference call [link] Amongst many very very positive comments these 2 stand out ‘It’s actually quite shocking when you see the unit volumes and the wafer consumption requirements. ‘!!! ‘We’re talking 3 times greater demand in 5G than the previous 4G LTE cycle. We therefore believe that the billion-dollar RF power market is poised to triple over the next few years on the back of GaN in 5G base stations.’ Remember GAN goes from zero to hero in terms of revenues, by the end of 2019, I believe they will be substantial, now that ‘gravy train’ has started. Macom are doing a presentation tonight at 8pm our time, webcast live, I am hoping their positivity on the GAN business will be restated- it’s webcast live, details on their website. Filters Another of my hobby horses- mainly because IQE has been teasing us with the potential for massive earnings for some time, especially at AGM’s. Well 1 year ago IQE had ‘cracked’ the technology issues about developing a single layer of Al Nitride into a wafer, overcoming the need for the spluttering process necessary for production of these filters. We know that IQE are working with multiple customers, and have had prototypes available for some time. With 5G imminent, new filter technologies are called for , and IQE are at last positioned to break into this hugely lucrative market. Have a read of the Skyworks CEO’s comments in their last conference call, major announcements will be made this year on new technologies and I expect them to feature our AlNitride wafers- we shall see. Comparators H1 2018 was hit by a significant £v$ headwind and also inventory issues and the comparison with the previous years license fee wins Paradoxically H1 2019,will almost certainly have a significant currency tailwind and rapidly ramping revenues from a diverse range of VCSEL customers, aided and abetted by revenue ramping up from GAN and a strong infrared performance , as well as a creditable performance from the PA wireless business.H1 2019 and indeed the full year is looking very sweet to me. I consider the forecast figures in the trading statement to be the worse case scenario, and believe they are now fully factored into the SP. As for infrastructure, all is in place, the new reactors are coming on stream at Newport and Taiwan is expanding in terms of our wireless products.The US operation is consolidating by closing New Jersey, saving $$ and expanding in other sites. I see a very positive and lucrative future for IQE I wish you all a happy Xmas, a prosperous new year, but more importantly good health and happiness. I will meet some of you at the next AGM , I look forward to that, but I will never post here again, I will leave with a comment I have made here on a number of occasions, if followed, it would improve the quality here no end? Don’t speak ( post) if you can’t improve on the silence. goodbye Dave"

jackdawsson 20 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? Hi @Lastemporer, I often refer to 4-Traders site. Chart shows we’ve tested a L/T low twice, so we’re looking at a possible a double bottom reversal. However, greater resistance seems likely ahead. Maybe around mid-70s as that’s where we fell back previously. That’s unless we get new bullish data to add sufficient buying momentum to breakout. With holding 4 leveraged longs here well underwater, rendering my past gains fairly meaningless, I intend to reduce as soon as I see a few points profit. Principally because, as with any AIM stock, it doesn’t take much volume to move SPs sharply in either direction. Very volatile. By the by, this is my only AIM holding &, going my experience so far, I’ll tread far more cautiously in this market in future. - GL. Screen Shot 2019-01-20 at 16.10.54.png814x877 52 KB

Lastemporer 20 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? Hello Jack, Can you share your chart here please. I’m also in IQE again at a loss… story of 2H 18 for you.

jackdawsson 20 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? @shabby_2_sox Good question, especially in light of previous disappointing news from AAPL. So hopefully someone who’s invested in this for fundamental reasons will get back to you. My own rationale for staying put for now remains mostly technical. As before, as long as 56+ support holds nothing changes for me. Of note, not only did Friday see a good rise, but volume behind it was also bullish. A decent 6.33M v average 3.26M. The highest daily volume for IQE since at least 15th November. - GL. Screen Shot 2019-01-20 at 15.43.31.png667x1002 116 KB

shabby_2_sox 19 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? Nice rise on some good news for the compound semi conductor industry. Good long term potential for IQE but how good will IQE management be in capitalizing on growth and profitability opportunities?

jackdawsson 03 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? Hi Zanshin, Ended at 59.35. Volume average. Still very poor, but probably not surprising considering said AAPL news & that most UK stocks were dragged down again for the usual macro-factors. If we do re-test support at 56, which held firm back in November, I’m mindful that SP did in fact dip below 56p intraday back then. Closing SPs are far more important. - GL.

zanshin 03 Jan 2019

IQE price collapse? After being stuck in a narrow sideways range since before Xmas, and with low trading volumes, the SP has sunk today following the profits warning from Apple. Although presently above today’s low so far, I am concerned that the pre Xmas downtrend will continue and the topic question will be answered in the affirmative. Will be watching JD’s suggested support of 56 closely.

eagle51 19 Dec 2018

IQE price collapse? yeah, F35 - you’re a great investor who understands everything. What happened to the pack you were hunting with who were all screaming ‘buy’ when the price was a pound higher? They’ve gone all quiet - funny that : -) If you want to call someone who’s called it right about this company and the people behind it for years a “troll”, it’s up to you. If I am, then being one has served me very well. I might not be in a certain doctor’s league but I’m happy with what I’ve gained, which has been honestly and as a result of understanding. Compare and contrast. I get the impression understanding is beyond you, but good luck continuing to gamble on prices. Sentiment works ok until reality sets in. Careful where you’re sitting when the music stops. IQE doesn’t seem to me to control its own destiny Happy Christmas imo dyor

freedom-thirty5 19 Dec 2018

IQE price collapse? eagle51: You’ve changed your tune, F35. Betting on the price alone now, eh? What happened to those fundamentals that meant IQE was a sure-fire winner you told people it was safe to buy at whatever price it traded it because the sky’s the limit? That’s a total lie. I said all along that the price, like any other stock is sentiment-driven. What drives the sentiment can be fundamentals, or it can be fear which has driven the price down since the peak. I will be buying once the technicals indicate that buying sentiment has returned. Beyond saying that, I don’t engage with trolls. Good day.

jackdawsson 14 Dec 2018

IQE price collapse? Hi Zanshin, Indeed. Brexit uncertainties liable to continue affecting market sentiment for some time yet. FWIW, since I started trading 02/2009, I’ve never held so many underwater positions at any one time as now. That alone speaks volumes. It’s a bad time to be involved in markets on the long side & that goes for many UK stocks. Harking back to the IQE chart I linked here 8 days ago, whatever happens next on the macro-front, we want 56+ support to hold. Today was again disappointing with a close of 63.50. But at least volume was very low. I’d only review my position here if 56+ support was lost. - Regards & GL.