Eadwig
03 Sep 2019
No new bad news in H1 results Hopefully a recovery from here … image.png671x664 27.5 KB
jackdawsson
23 Jul 2019
IQE price collapse? jackdawsson: Buy at 59.51. Sold at 63.69. Booked some quick gains as is my way due to extent of today’s rise. Up some 22% or over 12p. An excellent day whatever happens next! Also still hold longs here. - GLA.
jackdawsson
23 Jul 2019
IQE price collapse? Welcome rise this morning. SP up nearly 10p, just below 61 as I write. Despite mixed headlines, also some good news in today’s report linked with announcement of new deals & customers. - GLA. (Reuters) - Britain’s IQE Plc (L:IQE) said on Tuesday its sales had been hit by the trade war between Beijing and Washington, while reporting a handful of new deals with Asian customers that would give it access to new supply chains and provide “significant†volumes. [link]
jackdawsson
17 Jul 2019
IQE price collapse? Lastemporer: Hope you sold at 62 Jack, chart looks awful, firm downtrend. Also IQE have awful PR / Marketing so there’s never any RNS news to help steady the SP, just trading statements and results to send it down more. Hi @Lastemporer, Thanks. Valid points. Unfortunately not. Still hold. I’d have posted any trade live as always. Missed 62 as was away from my desk at the time. I agree chart looks poor. OTOH, IQE’s lowest L/T close was, as noted, 53.85. SP 54+ as I write &, for now, I remain unfazed unless SP closed below that support level with strong volume. That said, I’ve no plans to bail even if it loses support. As we’ve seen, this can move fast & by significant percentages in either direction come the next germane news. I still think a lot of bad news may be priced in at these levels, though also prepared to be wrong. - Regards.
Lastemporer
17 Jul 2019
IQE price collapse? Hope you sold at 62 Jack, chart looks awful, firm downtrend. Also IQE have awful PR / Marketing so there’s never any RNS news to help steady the SP, just trading statements and results to send it down more. I held this back in 2017 to ride the trend which was a profit, then lost some of that when I retook to do the same as you in 2018 which I sold for a loss and so glad I did looking at SP now.
jackdawsson
12 Jul 2019
IQE price collapse? Buy at 59.51. Re-bought tranche of shares to add to 3 well underwater longs (but fortunately small stakes). Reasons: was plainly oversold when falling to L/T intraday low of 41+ on 21st June. Lowest close 53.85 on same date. Recent resistance at 70+. Target on this about 10%. - GLA.
jackdawsson
21 Jun 2019
IQE price collapse? jackdawsson: Bought at 44.85. My first real shares in IQE. A gamble indeed, but so is much else in markets. Looking for bounce after today’s huge drop. jackdawsson: Edit: For those interested in technicals. IQE closed 71.65 yesterday, opened 48.50 today. That’s left quite a gap above that seems fillable when the macro-climate & germane data improves. Cheers. Sold at 53.01. Decent enough for a day trade, despite the gap referred to above. Rather book gains than risk a reversal. Would re-enter on any drop, but don’t mind further rises as I still hold smaller long positions here. - GLA.
Lastemporer
21 Jun 2019
IQE price collapse? Mick b on LSE sums it all up well: My view I’ve written about IQE many times, including twice this year (in March and May). I’ve been consistent, saying that it’s a capital-intensive manufacturer with poor historic returns for shareholders and significant customer concentration risk. Where I’ve been wrong is that I thought that the variable demand from Apple was the main source of risk. It turns out that Huawei has been the big disappointment, instead. My overall view is unchanged but I now also think there is a small chance of IQE experiencing financial distress. Net cash at December 2018 was £21 million, after £16 million of operating inflows during the year were offset by £42 million of investing outflows. Guidance for 2019 was for capex of £40 million and capitalised development costs of £10-£15 million. Spending over £50 million on investing activities using a £20 million net cash balance is a bad idea, given that profitability is set to collapse and its lending facility stretches to a maximum of $35 million (£27.5 million). I’m not saying that IQE is destined to run out of funds, but the company itself has acknowledged that it needs to cut costs and slash the capex budget. Some readers have believed in this company’s prospects based on its unique IP and the growth in the photonics industry, and there may be a lot of merit in that point of view. Based purely on its historic results, however, I have always questioned the quality of this business. In addition to (in my view) its poor quality, investors now need to factor in its greatly reduced growth prospects in the short-term and the small possibility of financial distress. For these reasons, I think it is more interesting as a candidate for a short sale rather than as a candidate for a long position. Stockopedia has called it quite well: a Falling Star.
eagle51
21 Jun 2019
IQE price collapse? OBO - in case you didn’t see it, this is what I wrote to shabby back in January after he had alerted me to Dave Sweeney’s last ever mega-ramp: "Jan 27 Thanks shabby. Glad to learn that Dave KNOWS so much will happen in the future that’s good for shareholders. You know the reservations I have. Ultimately it’s profits and cash that support share prices, not talk. Maybe one day they will arrive for IQE in the kind of volume that makes someone other than Nelson and a chosen few rich. Investing should be about more than hope. Maybe Pullen’s appointment signals a change in management calibre that will lead to better results and a stronger balance sheet. I have never doubted the quality of IQE’s offerings but the Company has been too dependent on much bigger customers higher up the food chain who restrict IQE’s ability to price their products at levels high enough to book the profits and cash I refer to. I’ll say it again - Nelson’s personal greed is notable. His and other directors’ shenanigans to disguise the fact they’d been selling shares was imv dishonest and a disgrace. My general feeling is that you’ll all do better when he’s gone (and taken a few others with him). There are much better investments out there without the risks all high-tech businesses carry. On a wider scale I got so fed up with directors lying about results and future prospects, whilst making themselves rich despite their failure to produce promised returns, that I now have only 3 investments in total (all in oil & gas, where there are no hiding places). Understand and choose them well and returns can be spectacular - as they have been for me. But there’s no denying the risks so my strategy wouldn’t suit most. GL shabby - you deserve to do well. Not sure about choosing IQE to get you that Gulfstream 600 but things might improve under different management. Always remember, cash is king. IQE doesn’t presently make any to speak of. Don’t listen to those who tell you the future is rosy. There have been too many rosy futures in the past and they’ve never arrived. If you’re going to fall in love, fall for profits (real ones, not pretend) and cash. Dave S should write a book (preferably on medicine - I think he said he was a doctor; he certainly knows very little about investing and the niceties of investment return). He’s the pied piper. Hope those who follow his music don’t find themselves all at sea… all imo/dyor" GL
eagle51
21 Jun 2019
IQE price collapse? Sorry Old Brown Owl - I don’t look in here that often and hadn’t seen your post about JOG. On paper I dropped what would be a fortune to you on the dry appraisal well but it’s far from over. I fully expect a sharp reversal during the next couple of year but who knows? I don’t have a crystal ball and an element of luck is always required. When investing in junior oil explorers one has to accept the inherent risks. I would have preferred £6 to 60p but c’est la vie - I can wait. At least JOG’s directors don’t tell lies and they have a great deal of their own money tied in - I still expect JOG to be a long term winner. It doesn’t owe me a penny because I top-sliced at close to £4 and added to my SQZ (you didn’t mention this company - my average is about 22p). I’m disappointed with CLNR which has turned into yet another case of directors putting their own interests before other shareholders. I have downsized considerably and added more JOG & SQZ. How’s your investment in IQE going, OBO? You have to admit Dr Nelson played a blinder selling all those free shares he held after exercising options - plus he’s still got countless millions left and is getting paid more than £1m a year for not making any (cash) profits. Take a bow, Dr N. Has Dave Sweeney the doctor turned investment guru gone into hiding? If not, he should do - offering all that investment advice that turned out to be horse manure. very naughty (and incompetent) You may recall me warning of the dangers of over-reliance on a small number of very large customers…? Do Apple and Huawei fit into this category? I doubt IQE’s next cash call will be quite as well received by the experts who bought DrN’s bullcaca at 140p, a short while after he’d sold a big bundle at 106p or whatever - only for pension planning purposes of course… I assume you and Les Paul C sold enough at 180p to go on a nice holiday together 43p eh?..tut tut …you can’t say you weren’t warned… warm regards eagle
jackdawsson
21 Jun 2019
IQE price collapse? Bought at 44.85. My first real shares in IQE. A gamble indeed, but so is much else in markets. Looking for bounce after today’s huge drop. But I’ll not hang about if it recovers even to circa 60+ over coming weeks. Also have 3 underwater SB longs in this outfit, but thankfully far smaller stakes than I had in VOD & BARC, both since jettisoned. - GLA.
old_brown_owl
28 May 2019
IQE price collapse? JOG crashing from 240 to 66p in the last couple of weeks, think you’ll be eating your words Eagle with your wager on this. You are exposed as both extremely naive and a gambler on this alone. Your smug line of not needing any luck on an earlier post is coming home to roost.
jackdawsson
01 Apr 2019
IQE price collapse? jackdawsson: Long at 66.40. Closed at 75.10. Booked over 8.5 pts. Reasons: though we’ve support at circa 65, we all know that things can change very rapidly with this one. Hence decent leveraged gains are better taken than not. - GL.
jackdawsson
25 Mar 2019
IQE price collapse? jackdawsson: Still hold longs at 96.90, 100.20 & 104.80. Long at 66.40. Re-opened a 4th long for similar reasons as before. ie. mostly technical, averaging down. IQE also seen decent support around these levels previously & most UK stocks down again today. - GLA.
eagle51
25 Mar 2019
IQE price collapse? Shabby - it was always coming. I could add quite a bit to what you say but see no point. Plus ca change. I can understand your reluctance to bale out - as in the emergency exiting of aeroplanes - but the idea of investing is to put your money where you realistically expect it to do best. It seems to me there are a lot better candidates than IQE. Just for starters - and as an indicator of who’s bearing the pain - I doubt very much you will see any scaling back in directors’ fat pay packages for producing this latest lot of manure. Being so dependent on a (very) few big companies - which IQE has been for so long - has really come home to roost. There are probably historical comparisons - eg I wonder what happened to all Nokia’s suppliers that company was so dependent on too. Another comparison might be the South Sea Bubble. I never leave my money in a company where all that a significant improvement in trading performance would achieve would be to put the company onto a sensible p/e. You can do the numbers; on the latest released, IQE’s p/e is off the scale. It would need to be making something like £30m a year in post tax earnings (real ones) to anywhere near justify its present market cap - even after the latest price correction. I moved my funds into higher risk territory (North Sea oil & gas at a junior level) a while back to take advantage of much better trading conditions post the oil price fall from 2014 to 2016. Oil & gas companies are far less susceptible to manure talked by directors. The oil (or gas) is either there or it isn’t and there are realistic ways to measure fair value. The OGA has it on its agenda to extract maximum economic return from a major UK asset that had lost its way and this has been - and will continue to be - good news for well-run smaller and medium sized companies trading in the NS… I have funds invested in JOG, SQZ & CLNR. Just for fun, make a note of the prices of these stocks today alongside IQE’s and look again in a year. I’ll have a friendly bet IQE’s price won’t have put on the most!! GL
