Eadwig
26 Nov 2015
Re: Results - P/E? - Future "CEO sold £1m worth though so his will have had some effect"Seems like a lot of that effect that has worked out of the price now (see price dip on high volumes below). I hope the directors don't make a habit of it as they own about 25% between them from memory. On the other hand, he created a very nice buying opportunity for anyone interested at the time. Unfortunately, I'd bought more a little before he gave us that opportunity.That large land bank owned by INL (large relative to the company's size), mostly meant for re-sale rather than building on themselves, must surely make them one of the big winners from the governments new housing policy intentions announced yesterday.I would certainly be buying at this level if I wasn't a holder. Hence, strong buy @70p, although if the US Fed raises rates around 16th Dec, there might be a sector-wide reaction giving a lower opportunity - despite the fact the Chancellor when interviewed this morning quite obviously isn't expecting UK rate rises anytime soon.
Courtier1
20 Nov 2015
Re: Results - P/E? - Future I am expecting NAV after revaluation at somewhere around 100p. I think you can check out Simon Thomson (inv chronicle) for a fuller calc of that.EPS is somewhat obscured by exceptional gains but at an operating level strikes me that they are performing around the 7p mark.So for me versus other house builders 7p*12 as a p/e = 84p. Most house builders are trading around 1.4* book value (I think currently) so with NAV closer to 100p you would be looking at unto 140p. However, I don't think Inland is quite comparable at a NAV level to other house builders thus I am looking for closer to 100p from them over the next year.Interesting to see them falling though post results especially after a further sale of project at very profitable level . CEO sold £1m worth though so his will have had some effect. I am not so worried by this given his remaining holding is still high and he has limited windows in which to sell.
Johnny lite
04 Nov 2015
Re: Results - P/E? - Future Good post thanks.A few points to add...Firstly, their current NAV is only calculated at cost - so any value since then is not included. So the value added from getting consent is not included. Their next set of results will change this so we will get a very different, and much, much higher NAV. The £15m exceptional gain was part of that revaluation so if that is repeated across the whole portfolio we will see what their landbank is really worth.Secondly, p/e is not a good calculation because it ignores debt. I would use enterprise value / earnings instead to give a better comparison. But they still look cheap even after allowing for debt. I don't see their debt levels as being anywhere near excessive so I am comfortable with their approach. I would actually be disappointed if they didn't have any debt as that would be very inefficient as all of their capital would be tied up too quickly.The difficulty we have in valuing Inland is that they are part developer and part housebuilder so which should we value them as? If we value them as a pure housebuilder then this will not take into account their large land bank when compared to their build rate. It would be interesting to calculate their land back in terms of number of years of build compared to other housebuilders (all of whom are on a forward p/e of under 10 last time I checked). But if we value their landback as a developer we should use the NAV as a fair price. But that would discount the housebuilding profits entirely. Once the new NAV calculation is in place then that should be a more accurate method. In the meantime, I think we have to treat them as a housebuilder.These are currently my largest holding as I bought a few years ago at a much lower price. Still not selling, and tempted to top up but have resisted as I don't want too many eggs in this one basket.JL
KALAN
04 Nov 2015
Re: Results - P/E? - Future Hi Eadwig - good post - The NAV compared to market cap is the only concern I see here after a very brief look - at less than 50% it does not give much comfort should there be a downturn in the housing market - however the NAV is rising at an accelerated rate at about £10 million per year and rising which would narrow the gap if the sp stood still. A very interesting company - going to do some research and get the heads up from someone in the business down South - thanks for the tip.
Eadwig
02 Nov 2015
Results - P/E? - Future Biscuit Barrel, "these seem massively undervalued "I would agree with you, but by how much? Unfortunately, even over the weekend, I just haven't had time to do the research I would like. But I will put forward what I have for comment and criticism and hopefully that will get us a bit further. I am adding to my holding this morning. I may well add further as and when I get the time to do more research.The traditional way of comparing similar companies in the same sector is to look at their P/E ratios. The main problem with that is that the accounts have been 'restated', luckily the restated numbers are given in the 2015 results report. Also, you are using an EPS figure from a few months ago. I couldn't find any estimates for EPS during the year ending 2016 to start looking forward or to help measure a PEG ratio. So, for what it is worth:sp at 30 Jun 14 48.25p (EPS 2.87 P/E 16.81) restated EPS 3.46 => P/E 13.94sp at 30 Jun 15 70.25p EPS 14.67 => P/E 4.79sp at 30 Oct 15 73.5p EPS 14.67 => P/E 5.01A fair P/E in the sector could be anything from about 12.5 - 25, so why not a target price of at least 183.75p?ProsBrownfield specialist with large land bank which has increased from last year despite many plots with consent sold off. Over 5000 plots now held, but only about 20% or so have planning consent.NAV 46pps as of Jun 30 2015, current price 73.5p. That NAV has already risen this year; there are early signs (4 months in) for the current financial year looking encouraging.ConsAverage selling price? £264,000. Quite high. This tends to be measured in multiples of the average wage which does put INL on the high side compared with BDEV, PSN, Bovis. This is due to their target area being in the highest cost parts of the country, of course.Borrowing appear to be well up. How sensible is that as we move toward a higher interest rate environment? Are the loans/borrowings at fixed rates?AIM company (That itself puts some people off), with not the smoothest last few years behind it (judging by the accounts) when other builders have had continuous growth. Compare to Eg. TEF which was similar in size and also a brownfield specialist operating in London but which has performed twice as well at least over the last 5 years.Doesn't just build houses. Also performs consultancy, buys and sells plots and designs. Could be something of a jack of all trades which may not be the most profitable way to go.
Biscuit Barrell
30 Oct 2015
Re: very nice results. Hi Serious,Thanks for the lesson in share valuations and how the market works.Aside from the facetious response by me -a couple of points - these results are referenced by the company as well ahead of market expectations. Therefore analysts will materially raise their forecasts - 80p will not stay as 80p.The second point is that because the results were not on time, the analyst(s) will not have scheduled the review of numbers and update to models and forecasts - therefore the time it takes for these results to feed into the normal system of broker forecasts may be longer than normal.
serious lnvestor
29 Oct 2015
very nice results. Biscuit Barrell, the value of a share is what a stock jobber can buy or sell a contract bargain for.they know the market better than we do and will know inland homes better than we do. they will also know who is buying and who is selling. this will be interdispersed with those who are in the know as always. many other factors come into play at certain times of the day such aspeople coming home from work to see the results etc. it is also worth having level 2 on iiito see the market a little closer as well. FT's Simon thompson suggested 80p.I note that inland still has some revaluations still not upgraded. I like the company and have made good profits over the years out of inland.wish you success as well. d.y.o.r s.
Biscuit Barrell
29 Oct 2015
wow those were worth waiting for - topped up. these seem massively undervalued
coldascheese
22 Oct 2015
Re: Results Monday should be good Late results a bit annoying however they keep advising that the results WILL EXCEED EXPECTATIONS.Delay due to re-presentation of accounts in different accounting format taking time which has meant previous years accounts for comparison purposes have to be changed to.Unnecessary drop in price so I have picked up some more.Should still be out soon.
Chronictrader1
21 Oct 2015
I don't mean to be rude, but everyone of you, if not most are suffering from confirmation bias...I can see it in most of your posts. I've seen the word "hope" a lot in here too. Let me ask this question...how would you feel if this share dropped to 60p?
Chronictrader1
19 Oct 2015
From what I've seen there's been No statement from the company. It's like someone taking money from you, and not telling you when they're going to pay it back.
Chronictrader1
19 Oct 2015
Inland have shown quite a lot of unprofessionalism this year, particular S wicks. Bank profits and run
Chronictrader1
19 Oct 2015
Inland have shown quite a lot of unprofessionalism this year, particular S wicks. Bank profits and run
Chronictrader1
19 Oct 2015
I took profits on Inland when the price was a 72p. When they first announced they'd be a delay in results. And looks like it's tanked 4% today. Whether investors are selling in panic or not, it's the height of unprofessionalism. Much better options out there such as SMP and U&C
coldascheese
16 Oct 2015
Results Monday should be good Results due today or monday should gives shares a lift as they have advised that will exceed expectations and price has not moved yet.
