thirty fifty twenty
24 Dec 2015
Re: Bingo that'd be great for some NY reading [email protected] price has tightened a little.I guess Hoyer with > 10% still have a position of influence..will they use that influence?and if so, use it for their personal benefit, or the benefit of all shareholders?All IMHO, DYOR + BoLINB is in my portfolio
muscati
23 Dec 2015
Re: Bingo I am pleased for you thirty fifty twenty. Your belief in the company was unwavering.Could there be a counter bid? Not according to the market. You quote 74% acceptance. My guess is that Hoyer may be holding back their acceptance so could they be contemplating a counter bid. Long shot me thinks. I suspect they may be having a serious think about it.For me today's announcement this is an unexpected bonus in that it frees up my cash that's been locked in for years.As for an possible investment idea I am always reluctant to recommend a stock but have a look at ELECOSOFT as a growth stock trading on the Aim market. I have followed this company going back to the late nineties. In the last two years I have bought in heavily as I have a very high regard in its management. It's off the radar though quite a few publications have written about this company. If there in any pull back and I hope there is, I may add to my already substantial holding.If you give me your email, I can post you several links to articles on the company.
thirty fifty twenty
23 Dec 2015
Re: Bingo indeed Muscati - its been a lonely board at times!the business generates HUGE CASH,so although a great premium to the recent price,I do think they have got a bargin!I will enjoy working out my cumulative return over the c.3+ years I've held,it ended up a fair % as I averaged out a little on lows,CASH flow always the driver in a business,so very nice to see this recognised in a business transaction,even if the market did not seem to value for several years.well done to you - any good investments to flip inot?All IMHO, DYOR + BoLINB is in my portfolio
muscati
23 Dec 2015
Bingo A surprise Christmas present.. Kept faith with this company as I always felt someone will bid for it.
thirty fifty twenty
23 Dec 2015
CASH bid at 9p CASH bid of 9p made ...there are 74% acceptances.I've not had time to analyse in detail to understand if there may be a possibility of a counter bid,or maybe more realistically a 10% holding blocking a full take-over to force a higher price.the final results from interbulk are VERY good.debt is reduced a further 7m to 53m - the 6th year in a row,the lower oil price gives net benefits to the now recovering Euro chemical industry,Globally the chemical industry grew by 3-4% last year.EBITDA, even with turnover 12% lower was £15m.so the bid price is only an economic value of 6.5t - this seems very low for a proved CASH generative business, at the bottom of the cycle,and passes on none of the merger benefits.it will be interesting to see how this pans out in the new Year.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLINB is in my portfolio
muscati
05 Nov 2015
Re: at 4.5p - update confirms good CASH ... I just cannot see that happening irrespective of where the share price stands.For a start both Artoka and Hoyer who between them hold 41% of the equity would be non starters. Artoka's holding is held by the banks and I am sure they would be willing sellers but only is they get a decent price for it, so that's them out. As for Hoyer they took a stake hoping that one day they would take out Interbulk.Well since they bought their stake, Sinotrans came in and it put an end to their ambitions. Sinotrans paid 11p for their 165,000,000 and must be wondering what have they got out of that placing over 4 years later.
thirty fifty twenty
03 Nov 2015
Re: at 4.5p - update confirms good CASH ... Hi MuscatiI agree that the quality of CASH flow has gotten tighter as operating profit has fallen,but EBITDA pre-exceptionals will be 15m+,PBT of 3.2 (as per LY), + Interest 5.2 (lower than LY), + Deprec 7m,So that is 10m+ of Free CASH flow,some of which needed for Tax (2m), some for exceptionals (2m max?), other (say 1m?)so I think that leaves maybe 5m from the business + operating lease less the 'investing they talk of....in total I think that means capable of at least 5m reduction.Do you see any chance of an equity raise with renegotiated bank facilities?1 for 1 at 4p would take debt down to c.2 times ebitdathus leaving 15m EBITDA on 1bn shares = 7.5p (at 5t EBITDA)All IMHO, DYOR + BoLINB is in my portfolio
muscati
03 Nov 2015
Re: at 4.5p - update confirms good CASH flow However we will have to wait and see if any reduction in debt was due mainly as a result of the $9.4m from the sale and leaseback back in July.
thirty fifty twenty
02 Nov 2015
at 4.5p - update confirms good CASH flow was encouraged by that trading update.for me, this business has always been about CASH flow and now profits.....they confirm that debt has reduced for 6 years in a row(not many businesses achieve that!!),AND it is during a time of tough trading conditions!!!!so imagine what they could do if the European economy was stronger!they always refer to the longer term as they know their strategic strengths,they have a moat and they able to generate large amounts of CASH even in touch times.it will be interesting to see how much they save with the bank refinancing... we'll know before end of the year. My bet is also that they will raise some equity to invest in America and China.This will allow the equity a re-rating as they'll be a well financed cash generating business at the bottom of the cycle.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLINB is in my portfolio
KayCatso
12 Oct 2015
White Knight My analysis shows they need a white knight or they will run out of cash in 4 - 6 months. Up for sale but at what price? Dry bulk business is down the pan.
thirty fifty twenty
17 Aug 2015
read across from Norbert + 9% in t/over good results from Norbert this morning. though not much additional comment!there is 9% revenue growth and they expect H2 to continue as H1,the proof is in the results for INB, not the forecasts,but given the operational and financial gearing,the favourable financial restructuring to come,the rising share price,and the Baltic Index trending higher.it could well be at last that early 2015 marks the lower share price of INB.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLINB is in my portfolio
muscati
30 Jun 2015
Re: debt restructuring at 4.5p Well the new CEO seems to have had a handle on cost which is very positive and so is the debt reduction.According to the last RNS in February , Cavendish Asset Management added 5m shares to their existing holding. Someone sees long term value here but for me it has been a very long wait.
thirty fifty twenty
30 Jun 2015
debt restructuring at 4.5p last post on INB today - honest!i forgot to add about the finance restructuring....INB describe this as financial re-structure - not debt restructure...interesting.at the moment equity is < 2 times EBITDA,and debt is say 3 to 3.5t EBITDA.The effect of another equity fund raising (say 400m at 5p?),would dramatically change valuation of equity given reduced risk b/c debt now < 2t EBITDAeven say then it INB was valued at 4t EBITDA or 10x P/E gives a price of 6p(Op Prof of 8m, interest of 2m (reduced debt), gives PBT of 6m, 20% Tax, 900m shares)so that is c.50% upside from current, at the bottom of the economic cycle for their business.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLINB is in my portfolio.. just a thought but demonstrates the upsid
thirty fifty twenty
30 Jun 2015
Re: great Interims DEBT reduction thanks TP I have a trend of CASH flows and WC ratios for INB. I used the assumption that FX would remain unchanged. There is likely to be seasonally a little more CASH flow in H2,and also the CASH flow in H1 was probably impacted by exceptional redundancy costs, which I am assuming is a CASH cost.Regardless my broad thrust was that debt will very soon - whether 6 mths or 9mths, be down to c.3 times EBITDA,which given that it is already a 5 year trend,takes the perception of INB from being valued as a 'going bust' risk,to being valued on closer to normal EV multiples.This, IMHO could easily take the price to 10p.Volume and price action recently shows that some-one was well ahead of the market buying at 4p and given the l.term nature of major shareholders, small amounts of buying can cause quick price movements.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLINB is in my portfolio
Tentative Predator
30 Jun 2015
Re: great Interims DEBT reduction I haven't looked in detail, last time i looked this was worth more than 5p. But with regard to debt, you're being a little too optimistic, the actual cash debt reduction was 1.7m in the 6 month period; the Euro exchange rate component could just as easily reverse so it's unwise to factor that in as if it will continue to benefit the debt.Debt reduction has been the key here for a long time, I don't see that changing, so you need to be quite careful on forecasting that.
