Hydrogen Economy
21 May 2018
Re: Results TRGI bought some in March/April as they were at a decent discount for a change and I thought the dip overdone, so far that is working out as 7% up but slow off the mark and didn't buy as many as I'd planned but happy enough. That was before the doubts on Euro growth came up and that could well be just a blip. 3i still heading up nicely.H2
Rhigos
21 May 2018
Re: Results Hydrogen Economy,Re timing I often get wrong. I sold an above average, for me, holding in Treatt (TET) Jul 2016 for a small profit because SP seemed to be drifting down. Since then share price gone up 180%. Very annoying.Regarding concern about how robust European growth will prove to be. I considered buying TR European Growth IT (TRG) in October last year as opinion seemed to be European economy would outperform UK. Fortunately I held off buying. Since then fund not lived up to name and down 10% since October, so glad I did not buy.I like the way 3i distributes capital from selling assets in the form of dividends.
Hydrogen Economy
19 May 2018
Re: Results Rhigos Good timing, I bought in just before you but sold out at a moderate profit just before the big rises! Bought in last year through gritted teeth to see it dip and only recently back into the black. Who said don't try to time the market.Market has got over its initial disappointment over results and pushed to a new high. 3i seems to have periods of flat or downward drifting punctuated by rapid and substantial rises. It would be nice if that what the new high is telling us.Re the premium, it has long been an issue with 3i. The private equity component is always a bit of a black box and it is often suggested that 3i are conservative in valuation which would be appropriate, but presumably ultimately that is how the market is valuing assets which 3i has proven capability to grow at rates above the general market.The slight concern is how robust European growth will prove to be. There was optimism a couple of months back but recent poor growth numbers is prompting fund managers to change to favouring US and EM over Europe. The EU customer will decide 3i's success and I guess Action's position as a value retailer is well positioned to ride out or even benefit from weak EU market. If they can get the stuff to the stores that is.H2
Rhigos
18 May 2018
Re: Results 3i have been good investment for me since my latest stake built up since Aug 2016 and one top slice in Oct 2017. Estimate average total return of around 30% pa. One thing I noticed from results was NAV of 724p so trading at a large premium. This must add to risk. Before I topped sliced 3i was my largest share holding now my third after PSN and RIO. Happy to hold for the moment.I did first buy 3i at an IPO in 1995 from government ownership and then bought more but sold last of them in 2006. Profit only modest. Recently their performance has been a lot better.
Hydrogen Economy
17 May 2018
Results They looked pretty good to me, down on last year but ahead of forecasts, but market must have been expecting more. A couple of minor issues mentioned on German Jeweller (called Christ!) and some distribution issues at Action due to rapid expansion which is slowing business. "Growth on this scale is very challenging to manage and Action encountered its share of issues in logistics and distribution and within certain product categories in 2017. Thesechallenges, together with building a pan-European infrastructure to cope with the medium-term ambition of €10 billion of revenues, will have a dampening effect on the rate of profit growth expected this year, as they did in 2017. But Action is an exceptional business, it is still likely to generate sector-leading sales and profit growth in 2018 and this ongoing investment in logistics and infrastructure will facilitate its considerable medium-term growth potential."I guess with Action being such an important part of the portfolio, any doubts cause anxiety.H2
holland44
16 Mar 2018
Is now a good entry point? I am relatively new to looking at 3i, so would appreciate any sage advice from the wise heads on this board. Is now a good time to consider investing? Of course I can drip-feed, but I'm considering selling up some other under-performing private equity holdings and switching a long-term lump sum to 3i.I've previously been put off when I've looked at the trust through 2017 by the very large premium, but 3i has been range-bound for about 9 months now despite several NAV upgrades, and the premium has declined steadily to 30%. However the premium on this trust has been all over the place: it was close to zero as recently as 30 June 2016, but back up at 30-35% in the preceding summer of 2015, so market timing clearly matters.For what it's worth, the charts are showing a similar degree of calm at the moment; there's no clear trend on MACD, RSI, CCI or momentum, but one of my favourite indicators, Intermediate KST, is turning and may be preparing to cross the signal line in a favourable direction. However this probably just reflects the long period of price stability rather than something one can use looking forward.On fundamentals, the company seems very confident, in both the latest Annual and Semi-annual reports, and in the Q3 update on 1 Feb 2018, so I'm inclining to think I should just overlook the premium and go ahead and invest. However private equity SPs tend to be pretty lumpy, as the market responds to quarterly or semi-annual NAV updates and/or announcements about major realisations, so for all I know, I will sell my other PE shares at just the wrong moment!Perhaps the best course would be to gradually sell down my other holdings and drip-feed into 3i after all . . .
sage in the hills
14 Dec 2017
Re: XD today yet SP up about 2%! Hi Rhigos .........I think if we can get a closing price over 920p in the next few days, we will be away .....SAGE
Rhigos
14 Dec 2017
XD today yet SP up about 2%! One of my best performing shares since buying in Aug 2016 but SP not gone up over last 6 months. Looks like upward trend is coming back. Yield of 3.0% so overall return not bad recently despite lack of rise in SP.
holland44
03 Dec 2017
Re: Double top but undervalued? The Technical Insight section for 3i on this website shows a Double Top and Megaphone Top on 15 November, with a target price of 819-833p.I've been looking at buying 3i recently, but the hefty 40%+ premium has put me off; the charts at hl.co.uk show that the premium in the two years before 2017 was in the 10-20% range, even falling to a discount in the first half of 2016, and it was regularly at a large discount before 2012, presumably reflecting the recovery from the financial crisis of 2007-08.I've read elsewhere that some of 3i's premium can be justified by business assets that are not fully reflected in the accounts, but I can't find any more information about this; do you know anything?
Hydrogen Economy
03 Dec 2017
Double top but undervalued? 3i SP has slipped significantly from the October high, having dipped then bounced from the earlier Aug high. I'm no TA specialist, but this looks like a double top dipping from 970 to 860, recovering to ~960 ish before falling through the 860 support. If so that suggests a price to fall from the 860 support by as much again as the mid top trough (ie ~110p), ie. 750p. I'd be grateful if a TA expert can advise on that.That said and moving to fundamentals where I feel a little more comfortable, I see that the consensus forecast NAV for year end is 679, 12.4% up on the year. EPS is ~106p down from 168p last year but that was flattered by currency and other one-off gains. 106 is on a good growth trajectory from 73p and 85p in YE 31st March 15 and 16. The FY 2018 and 19 forecasts have been continually revised up through this year. Based on the current estimates, even with zero growth from there on I would estimate fair value at 1050p on a DCF basis, which seems way too conservative a growth figure given track record.[link] trades at a substantial premium to the NAV so I guess will be hit hard if/when a major correction kicks in. Further strength in the pound would also hurt (but that risk could just as easily work the other way depending how Brexit plays out)My feeling is that on a fundamentals basis, 3i is very undervalued (one of the most undervalued on my watchlist on DCF basis). Short term the trend may be to push SP lower. If SP does hit get near 750p as discussed above then I would think that could be a fantastic buy.I have a small holding here and looking to increase significantly but will watch for now.GLA H2
sage in the hills
27 Sep 2017
Soc Gen target 1020p Barcs to 1000pat 19 /9SAGE
sage in the hills
13 Jun 2017
Barclays says 980p Broker Forecast - Barclays Capital issues a broker note on 3i Group PLCStockMarketWire | Thu, 1st June 2017 - 10:20Barclays Capital today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on 3i Group PLC (LON:III) and raised its price target to 980p (from 750p).SAGE
II Editor
07 Jun 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Big profit upgrades make these 10 shares worth watching "Earnings season in the UK doesn't have the same headline-grabbing appeal as it does in the United States. But make no mistake, hits and misses in UK corporate earnings command the attention of analysts and investors everywhere.Analysts of course, ..."[link]
Merlindale
25 May 2017
Re: Excellent performance I hold 3i and Intermediate Capital ( up 14% TODAY ) both extremely well run professionally managed businesses, and I now have about 12% of my portfolio in these 2 babies, up about 280% in 3i and over 160% in ICP respectively with excellent yields to boot - I like Melrose too up 160% in recent years. All 3 are run by astute financial managers who are really good at what they do.
Rhigos
25 May 2017
Excellent performance I sold out of 3i Group in January 2006 and only bought back on 22 August last year. Added to holding in September and January. Now 4.82% by value of my share portfolio. Since August SP has risen an impressive 35%, at yesterday's close, one of my best performing shares. I note that out of 44 companies I have shares in it is up the most this morning +1.7%. On top of that a yield of 3.1% covered 6.4 times.
