In_the_dark_yet_again
14 Nov 2019
Results LSE:III Well that just goes to show how little I know! I read them and was quite happy… obviously the market thinks differently. [link] Only explanation I can think of is: close yesterday 1125. NAV announced today 873 means 1125 is a 28% premium to NAV. It’s been up above 25% before but the SP has always fallen back immediately afterwards so history repeating itself - 3i NAV has always been understated; not dishonest just prudent accounting given the nature of many of the assets (ask investors in Woodfood about the risks of investing heavily in unquoted assets!) 3i have been doing it for donkey’s years and have always kept unquoted assets on their books at the minimum value they can get away with, not the max. Then again, it has come quite a long way this last year so clearly the market was expecting more. Me, 10% rise in NAV, interim dividend up 16.67% (old fashioned I know but chunky dividend hikes are indicators of intent in my experience - hiking it then having to cut it later makes CEOs look bad so they’ll tend to veer on the side of caution if they doubt it’s manageable). A 3%+ yield, underlying growing 10%, dividend up even more. What’s not to like? OK… I know plenty of risk given the nature of the underlying assets but I’m a fan - they are much better at it that I could ever be so I’ll just sit on for the ride. Regards, ITDYA
In_the_dark_yet_again
05 Apr 2019
Results LSE:III There you go… £10 plus and not just for a few seconds! I did think so at the time and did buy a few… just too few it seems. [link] £2m of his own money, not share option money, proper hand in back pocket money. Said at the time he’d probably know more about what was really going one that I did! 25% in less than 6 months. I know, only 15p divi plus as well in the meantime… Regards, ITDYA
In_the_dark_yet_again
05 Dec 2018
Results LSE:III Soft Brexit, how soft? I still hear some (misguided IMO) mention a Norway model. Not in the EU but: pay 80p per head of population for every £1 we chip in; open borders to all EU citizens, work permits, residency rights, Social Security benefits simply by asking/filling out a form; full compliance with ECoJ, EU rules have precedence over domestic rules/law; and no formal representation, no vote, no veto. Iceland is not much different. It’s no Brexit, it’s being IN just with no representation, literally none regardless of how ineffective anyone thinks our current representation is. That is clearly far, far worse than no Brexit at all (for ref, I voted to stay, not because I love the EU, loads I dislike, so so much! Just I could see no viable way - better to stay in, get very active with any/all dissenting voices who like a united Europe but hate the idea of a Federated State - we are everywhere, all over Europe, in all 28 states - but open borders is the price you pay, an immoveable object and seemingly a bridge too far for too many. No idea how it will wash out. So huge uncertainly here, the Trumpster as unpredictable as ever, a sword rattler who’s friends love the idea of a big red button… markets love uncertainty! NOT! Regards, ITDYA
davidnmog
30 Nov 2018
Results It does appear inevitable at the moment that the deal will be voted down, but there is no majority in parliament for a no-deal, so I assume our withdrawal will be delayed by some mechanism or other (current ECJ court case on UK unilateral right to rescind Article 50, or with agreement of EU, who presumably will be happy for our future contributions to continue). I expect a second referendum after that looks inevitable, as opposed to a general election which the conservatives may loose. Either way the European question looks certain to continue for many years ahead. My personal preference would be to extend article 50 for another couple of years and leave without a negotiated deal, taking the time to make the necessary preparations; clearly the EU has never wished to make a deal which we would find acceptable. If we leave without a deal we can impose our own solution for Northern Ireland (technological; no hard border) and not make trade offs for access to our waters nor pay a divorce bill. I would call this a clean Brexit, but I don’t see this happening. I see the softest of Brexits happening or no Brexit at all. Short term this will be a positive for the UK, long term, you should favour USA, Far East and other emerging markets.
holland44
30 Nov 2018
Results Thanks ITDYA: I didn’t know Mr May had a deal on offer, as well as the one promoted by Mrs May! I’m in agreement with you that the Withdrawal Agreement is likely to be voted down, but I think almost every other option will be too. A second referendum need not be won by Remain; the promoters of this option can’t even agree what the question will be, and it seems a real gamble to me: what if Ref2 comes out 51:49 for Leave, or worse 50.05:49.95 for Remain? I don’t think it will solve any problems, and does anyone investing their money think a Corbyn government will be anything but a total disaster? My preference now is either WTO/No Deal, or if that cannot achieve a majority in Parliament, I could live with Norway+, i.e. temporarily rejoin EFTA while we negotiate a trade deal with the EU, thus escaping the ghastly Backstop. I think that could command a majority in both Parliament and the country. See Nick Boles MP’s article on 27 Nov in the FT.
In_the_dark_yet_again
29 Nov 2018
Results LSE:III @holland44 The 29% premium was exceptional even by III standards… but it’s a premium against book value of the assets which frequently doesn’t reflect their true value - they have a lot of unquoted investments which sit on the books with a value of the original stake, only being revalued when they have to; a partial disposal somewhere, a float of shares or occasionally when it’s so massively out of sync they can’t not (and even then they take a very conservative value). With the unquoted stuff they mark stuff down very quickly when there’s bad news but are very slow to revalue up, only when they have to. So the ‘NAV’ they report always understates the true value of the assets hence the shares always trade at a decent premium to that reported NAV. The true NAV of their assets I doubt anyone knows although the insiders will have a much better clue than us. But yes, 29% is exceptional even by 3i standards but then there were rumours of some substantial disposals due imminently as a massive premium to book value and a ‘bad’ Brexit could certainly hurt the realised value or even scupper the disposal all together. The fact that the CEO piled in and a few of the other directors followed suit albeit in smaller size does provide me with some reassurance - they should know a lot more than they are telling me! More worrying is politics. Mr May’s deal is complete garbage: it’s a great deal for the EU, dreadful for the UK. It’s not really Brexit, it’s more like all but staying in just with no vote or veto on anything that happens, worse than if we had stayed in. I don’t think it will pass parliament - none of the leavers will support it and, if it was me (a Remainer), I’d vote against it as well - kill it, call a vote of no confidence, general election, Conservative government falls. New government say the election really was about Brexit so calls a second referendum despite the howls from the Leavers and this time it’s a clear stay vote as way more people than necessary to swing it the other way have realised what a pack of false promises (downright lies) they were sold by Mr Farage, Boris and Gove. It could be a complete disaster; I have no idea if/how/what happens should we change our minds, even whether the EU would let us. I’m preparing myself for a pretty hard Brexit. Fortunately I have pretty deep pockets but it could crucify those that don’t. Regards, ITDYA think, Farage, Gove and Boris also have deep pockets and don’t care what happens to the rest of us.
holland44
29 Nov 2018
Results Gavin Lumsden at Citywire commented on 19 Nov 2018: “Brexit turmoil has created a buying opportunity in private equity giant 3i (III) with its usually hefty premium subsiding in last week’s sell-off . . . from 13% in mid-week to a little over 2%. That looks an absolute bargain compared to their 29% average premium of the past 12 months.†I too can’t see much wrong with the results, but a 29% premium is unusual and arguably III was due a correction, on top of the general market one, to reflect our uncertain times. Look at how Independent (IIT) has come down to earth too in recent months. Lindsell Train trust will probably be next. I decided to buy III at 818p last week, so have caught some of the recovery to 875p, but with the key Brexit vote in the next two weeks, the Italy situation etc, I am expecting choppy times irrespective of the quality of the underlying business. It is extremely difficult to work out where to invest at the moment, so I am sitting on a lot of cash and drip-feeding.
In_the_dark_yet_again
20 Nov 2018
Results Having read a few articles on-line it appears analysts agree with me in that the reaction was a Brexit thing as the results were very solid - a bit worried as I don’t usually pay much notice to what analysts let alone financial ‘journalists’ have to say since they rarely seem to know what they are talking about so them ‘agreeing’ with me makes me doubt my own judgement a tad. On the bright side the CEO immediately jumped in buying 250,000 (£2m worth approx) and 3 other directors came in for 65,000 between them over the next few days indicating they have faith and maybe think it’s a blip? It will be interesting if/when they unload them whether the market remembers the timing of the purchases. I have no spare money lying around otherwise I’d chip in with a small punt of £5k but only with a 950 offload target. Worth the risk here I reckon. Regards, ITDYA
Hydrogen_Economy
15 Nov 2018
Results ITDYA I looked at this yesterday wondering what the results might do. I am looking to build on my cash position so was inclined to sell all, In the end I sold half as a hedge. Saw the results this morning and thought they were pretty good so kicking myself at selling. Now thinking I should have sold the lot but anyway it has worked out OK, may be tempted back in if it drops far enough. Hard to say why it has dropped, you’d think the fall in GBP would be a positive, apparently not. The automotive cables business was a predictable hit in current Auto environment but the management still got fired, pretty tough but maybe there was more than environment hurting results. The issues with Action supply chain look like they are not yet fixed so could continue to hurt, these things get more difficult with scale so there is a risk that things could get more ugly but lots of steps taken to fix. General European outlook seems flat, but we already knew that. So to sum up why did it fall on decent results- don’t know, sometimes it happens that way then recovers over a few days (as GSK did a few weeks back). H2 - still here but wondering why, habit probably.
In_the_dark_yet_again
15 Nov 2018
Results LSE:III [link] Well the market reaction appears a bit harsh on those results. I can’t see too much wrong with them… am I completely missing something? Or is this sell off more of a reaction to the Brexit news, i.e. despite Mrs May managing to squeeze out a cabinet agreement for her plan, it’s far from certain whether it will get approved by parliament - small companies always bear the brunt of uncertainty. Curious about anyone’s (if there is anyone else out there) thoughts. Regards, ITDYA
holland44
19 Jun 2018
Where are the tags? Unfortunately we have been left to fend for ourselves in terms of working out how to use the new site: I can’t see any Discussion Help pages, even very basic ones. I’ve just entered Tags and found an impossibly large list of what like like LSE, NYSE etc equity tags. In practice, I can’t see many people actually bothering to wade through these, on top of the time spent composing their message.
ValueSeeker8
18 Jun 2018
Where are the tags? Click on the three bars button (the menu) at the top right next to the magnifying glass symbol then click tags, sort the list by name then take your pick!
cashcrash
18 Jun 2018
Where are the tags? where can i find all tags? the all tags only shows a few! how utterley useless is this platform! no instructions no guide, nothing!
In_the_dark_yet_again
14 Jun 2018
XD today Saw the drop and thought ‘why?’ but then realised it went ex div this morning. 22p payable 20th July if unaware. Regards, ITDYA
Rhigos
21 May 2018
Re: Results At the moment today 3i my best performing share, with AZN a close second on some good news about regulatory approvals.FTSE 100 up about 1.1% at new all-time high. Happy days (except for equity investors with a lot of cash to invest).
