oggs
10 Mar 2017
Re: Tempus say avoid as well Inevitable. No PE firm holds onto large stakes in listed companies forever; it's not what they are for.
smilingmickey1
10 Mar 2017
Re: Tempus say avoid as well Well a very swift sale of the shares. Bain will be happy that they got more than the original flotation price.They still hold 25% of the Company and one might expect they will plan to eventually completely divest themselves.
smilingmickey1
09 Mar 2017
Re: Tempus say avoid as well Well my prediction of further placing of shares by Bain did not take long to materialise.I guess short term the share price will be driven by the placing price that is achieved.SM
smilingmickey1
08 Mar 2017
Re: Tempus say avoid as well The share price is now above the inital flotation price of 190p back in early 2016 after a very rough ride.On a PE basis (which I estimate at about 12) it is quite modestly rated but I guess comparable with many building related shares.The dividend for the past year gives a yield af around 3.6% which is not too sniffy.Some debt has been paid off this year, and total indebtedness has reduced despite substantial capex on new plant. I guess that Bain might be trying to sell off some more of the stock they hold but one would guess there would be interest from the safe handed financial institutions at around the current price.I don't think one will make a furtune here but I would hope fro some further modest increases in the share price.
oggs
08 Mar 2017
Tempus say avoid as well But as it's up c. 20% since Questor says avoid I'm not convinced!
oggs
17 Feb 2017
Re: Quester says Avoid It has been a slow burner but that's fine - 10% up nog to be sniffed at. The large overhang of PE shares does bother me though but that is a feature of so many listings now.
Eadwig
17 Feb 2017
Re: Quester says Avoid I was aware of that Mickey. I think they still hold 37% after the last sale (m,entioned below somewhere).It doesn't seem to be retarding the share price right now, although very bad figures for new housing starts in the USA today, although perhaps it evens out after the much better than expected number reported last month.Whatever, I've had plenty of time to regret my sale on the assumption I would get back in lower.. Not my finest hour, it must be admitted.
smilingmickey1
03 Feb 2017
Re: Quester says Avoid Just so you know, the seller of the large block of shares, is the Organisation that arranged for the listing of the shares on LSE. They owned 100percent of Ibstock prior to the listing, and remain a major shareholder, and received cash for the shares listed on the LSE.Maybe the fact that they may sell off more shares is subduing the share price, which rates the Company very lowly.SM
Eadwig
26 Jan 2017
Re: Quester says Avoid Questor strikes again! I never did get my @174p re-entry point. looks like people are buying in the run up to better than expected results - or what they hope will be, at least.I think they'll have a big plus from the Fx advantage, otherwise pretty steady growth only, 5% or lower, but beating estimates.Good housing start numbers from USA also, so forward guidance over there should be good. Probably here to judging from what we've seen from house builders. New mortgages figure higher than expected again today.And we've still got Hammond's announcement to come of the government sponsored building programme in the UK. Might have missed the boat for now though.
Eadwig
18 Jan 2017
Re: Quester says Avoid Rhigos,Although they say they are on the lookout for further acquisitions to enhance the group, I went through several reports and presentations last night and there was not a single mention of exporting any of their products. I found that pretty strange. Some developed with a new concrete technique specifically for Railtrack must be equally saleable across Europe and indeed the world. No mention of any export strategy.(If you have or are looking at housing investments, they have some very good industry figures in their presentations, and comments on government targets and schemes which are pretty useful for general understanding of the sector.)There was a shortage of bricks for the UK housing market maybe 12-18 months ago that was blamed as a limiting factor for some companies and how many houses they could build, thus depressing supply.That seems to have been solved by importing bricks, but they are set to get ever more expensive given exchange rates and if you're looking for a brick play in the UK Ibstock will have something close to 50% of Uk produced supply by the end of 2017.However, housing completions have slowed, many new projects are tower block style apartments, the government's big push to up the number of completions is definitely looking at modular pre-fab housing so I'm not so sure we'll see another brick shortage anytime soon. Ibstock also provide product that would fit in with that do provide other products that such projects will use though, and growth in those minor parts of the group look very possible, although I don't have a handle on management yet. One of those groups appears to have any cable ducting business along future rail infrastructure tied up with Railtrack. If cable theft is a problem on older lines, they may well get retrograde orders too. They do seem to be pretty innovative in some ways.Although a very old company, they haven't been floated very long, and there are some oddities with the fundamentals. E.g up to September one holder owned 47% of the shares. I'm not sure of the story behind that. They reduced their holding to 37% by placing two 5% wads with institutional investors @175p, which caused quite a sharp pullback on the share price. There's no guarantee they wont do that again if there is some share price advancement, or even if there isn't. Of course, you always give a discount to the market price when selling as much as 5% of a company to someone, so not quite sure why the market reacted so badly, they always seem to with placings though. Even though there was no dilution involved with this one.It does set a milestone value at which professional investors have been prepared to take a large position though, so is quite helpful to late comers. Hence I retain my limit order in place @174p which is just under the 175p tide mark after stamp duty.The 20% revenues from the US company, plus that is the fastest growing part of the group, are going to blow away previous profits due to Fx rates, despite the very flat trading update. Two previous financial reports that took Fx into account were at 1.4x and 1.5x to the dollar. The lower figure added about £3m to profits reported in GBP. A short term catalyst, but it could run for another year at least yet, and increase.
Rhigos
18 Jan 2017
Quester says Avoid [link] read another article in yesterday's Telegraph about Ibstock and was quite interested in company as biggest brick maker in UK and rumours of brick shortage by house-builders.Quester column has put me off and fundamentals do not look that great. I had thought with pound falling they might be good at exporting bricks. Raw material clay available locally so no need to import, however it struck me biggest cost would be energy and that is linked to dollar and not cheap. Broker consensus is 'Weak by'. Do not think I will buy.
Eadwig
18 Jan 2017
The markets seem completely underwhelmed by Ibstock's trading update; revenue up just 5%, although more when Fx rates taken into account on US business. The language is very staid, less than enthusiastic in tone, I must say.My previous post states I sold due to Hammond not delivering the impetus I was expecting in the Autumn statement, but I found a piece in the Telegraph that the planned infrastructure spend is indeed still on the way. Trouble is, there appears to be a movement underway to use modular, pre-fabricated housing in great part. Which means not so many bricks required. But they're still planning to hit 1 million houses delivered between elections. Well off course already but ambitious targets can't harm.The new brick factory wont be online for at least 6 months, so no great catalyst there short term, although the trading update reports more bricks sold in 2016 than the year before and the factory will add 13% capacity to clay brick manufacture. 5% capacity was added to concrete roof tile manufacture in August 2016 and the new tile product line has been received well.The update also says fewer bricks are being imported. That seems to have spooked investors who appear to think it means less housing to be built. I think bricks from abroad are too expensive and Ibstock should see increased sales. That's how I read it anyway: "Growing house builder activity supported a stronger second half and national brick imports declined significantly over the year. "Favourable broker coverage before the trading update:5th Dec - Jefferies International today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Ibstock Plc (LON:IBST) and raised its price target to 230p (from 190p)15th Dec - Barclays Capital today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on Ibstock Plc (LON:IBST) and raised its price target to 200p (from 190p)4th Jan - Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Ibstock Plc (LON:IBST) and raised its price target to 240p (from 205p).But after:16th Jan - Peel Hunt today downgrades its investment rating on Ibstock Plc (LON:IBST) to hold (from add) and raised its price target to 190p (from 175p).All seem to think there is upside from here. And so did the investors who bought the placement at 175p. I think I'll set a limit order for about 174p and see what happens from there. There is a couple of dangerous technical signs on the chart so recent selling may not be over yet. But I'll go a second tranche if the price does fall 5% below my first buy.A weak Buy for me. HMG still determined to see min. 200,000 new houses delivered each year between now and 2020 and new initiatives on the way, looks like one for the medium term, even if perhaps it wont shoot the lights out when the prelim results are announced 7th March. 20% of revenues in US dollars too, that's a back-up worth having over the next couple of years, I reckon.
Eadwig
23 Nov 2016
Sold Today - Hammond disappoints I think Ibstock has been up on the expectation of Hammond announcing big infrastructure projects in the Autumn Statement today. I certainly bought on that basis.It looks like the statement is going to be a lot more conservative and a lot less Keynsian than people were expecting. I sold out at around @181.2p for a small profit of about 7.5% in approx 10 weeks.If the price drops back below @175p I'll likely buy in again - there is still the unexpected catalysts from the Trump win for the US portion of the business.
oggs
10 Nov 2016
Re: Gratifying .. The Redrow statement must have helped
Eadwig
09 Nov 2016
Re: Gratifying .. oggs,Seems to have been a rise in the whole sector today, Dunno what;s driving it,I hope its leaking info from the Chancellors plans later in the month, BBY up 7%+ - something going on, no special news or results.
