tamdee
08 Feb 2017
Re: Stella First Oil [link]
onedb1
08 Feb 2017
Re: 2.75p profit for every share Well factually as it stands 1.95$c is 1.184 , ( fx = 1.647 as I am typing ) So 117p is a bit weird . We are in full 'twilight zone' these days must say .Low offer and people bailing out some low offer . Someone wake me up. What baffles me is that Stella results should come before the offer goes to vote tooA good result should find a counter bid IMO .
jaxonsax
08 Feb 2017
Re: 2.75p profit for every share thats not actually the case. The offer is C$1.95 which on 3rd Feb equated to 120p. the offer is in C$ not £/p.Nevertheless a lot of the main holders are UK funds and investors so id the C$ : £ worsens the offer in pence it is even less likely to be accepted than 120p (which in my view wont fly anyway)
colebrooke1
08 Feb 2017
2.75p profit for every share Worth buying at 117.25 better percentage than in the savings account! I can't see this going for 120p Delek will be forced to up their offer. Even at 150p this is cheap...
killermanjarrow
08 Feb 2017
Can any long term holder tell me... what happened to lionsfan? His insanity was quite amusing and then the bottom fell out of this share and I had to stop looking. Now he seems to have gone....although I imagine that he might still be lurking..
Mr Papillon
08 Feb 2017
Re: Long time holder breaks voyeuristic sile... If this is your view, then sell now and take the money and allow the rest of us to hold out/hope for a better deal.
TwistedMachine
07 Feb 2017
Undervalued offer £1.20 I haven't posted for a while, but as a long term holder I felt I had to add my tuppence.This is poor show by the BOD to lock in their shares and give Delek a lock in agreement so that they counter match any higher bids. That just puts companies off spending thousands in due diligence to decide to make the effort to put a counter offer in because Delek will match up to a point and their due diligence money will be wasted. Delek will know this, so its in their interest to put a lower ball bid in as there starting bid, which is what I think they've done because they know damn well, even in a few months time this will be worth more than £1.20. The BOD may have ticked all the boxes for an independent analysis to be between 1.60 and 2.10 Canadian dollars but that's just the current valuation. Does anyone really think that when those first stella numbers come in with increased earnings per share in the quarterly reports in less than 4 months time that the share price isn't going to be above £1.20. It's daylight robbery, and the BOD seem all too casual in shutting up shop. Iain Mckendrick the former CEO told bidders a few years ago, to up the bid, when the sp was around £1.40 and the bid was north of £2 (rumours were £2.20) and stella wasn't even close to production. I know the oil price was a lot higher then but still Les isn't a patch on him in that sense in maximising shareholder value. To suggest people have invested and received a good return over the last few years is completely disingenuous because it was the dive in oil prices and the macro sell off in oilers that allowed people to get in at lower prices not his magic touch that has organically grown the business, stella was already work in progress when he came on board. Stella is the flagship project all shareholders have been waiting for. The carry forward on the tax will ensure no tax is paid for years on profits, plus we are the lowest cost operator per barrel of oil produced in the north sea by a good margin, so we will have the highest operating profit margins per barrel of oil in the north sea. All this for a 13% higher bid than the current sp?? Delek know this, and I suspect they have been rushing this bid through as quickly as possible before stella goes online and getting the BOD's approval before the share prices increases beyond where they can make a health profit. It is shocking the BOD is standing by them and this deal as being the best deal for shareholders. They must think we can all be hoodwinked, hence Artemis and Cavendish fund managers strong response to the poor offer. Delek have also played a blinder, in that the share price might be pegged back now to £1.20 even if Stella comes online due to no big buyers wanting to buy in if the bid is £1.20.If Delek get this for £1.20, within 6 months shareholders will be kicking themselves for giving it up as the valuation of the business in whatever form will be much higher barring no shock in oil markets to the down side, and in 12 months it wouldn't surprise me if Delek sell it on, making 40-50% profit on the assets. Nice for them but a shocking BOD recommendation. I expect their excuse could be the company will be too big to operational manage, risk is too great as the project coming online is too big for the company. Still a shocking performance.The BOD is being complicit and lazy in my opinion who I think simply want on their CV, ''Increase shareholder value by 400% in the last 3 years (based on 16p shock downside when oil looked like it had no floor) and brought a flagship project to bear'' so they can cash in on the next oil BOD job with a big pay increase to be taken on somewhere. They probably have hundreds of thousands of options at lower share prices granted when the Sp was low and this is quick cash in for all of them in one go.I see Delek have until 31 March to post the shareholder circular for voting. People who trade through platforms will have their shares held in a nomine
billjan
07 Feb 2017
Re: Long time holder breaks voyeuristic ... Hi HighI agree that offer underpins Ithaca SP so no need to panic but still good to see someone in exactly the same quandary - feel like spinning a coin as we have no idea what is really going on.However my thoughts - I am currently a little down on Premier on latest buy and not yet sold out but am near stop loss limit like Trendfriend who has already shipped out! No emotions says sell! Emotions says Premier must come good surely after recently removing the financing uncertainty unless the deal is that bad - surely not. Onedb1's observations on Premier share price moves and comparison to EnQuest after their finance deal was interesting and also gives confidence to stick with it for now.I am hacked off that Ithaca board recommended 120 before Stella first oil was announced - that surely would have extended the winning run for a while at least but switching to Premier at the moment is not a must move while market is adjusting to announcement of their finance deal.Might be a good time soon if shorters continue to drive Premier down and I can average down on the dips but in mean time I am sticking with Ithaca and holding Premier with confidence in medium term.Comments welcome.Hope that makes some sort of sense!!
high blood pressure1
07 Feb 2017
Re: Long time holder breaks voyeuristic ... If anything the offer has underpinned the share price during a bit of volatility in the market.I'm holding premier and have had a tough ride this week. Would imagine ithaca would have followed a similar suit had we not had the bid yesterday. I'm tempted to sell out and buy a bit more premier if it drops but there's every chance we'll see Ithaca jump again in the month of F
Seesawpat
07 Feb 2017
Re: Long time holder breaks voyeuristic ... If Delek are offering 120p I'd say it's a fair old bet they'll have a wee bit of inside knowledge that the great unwashed don't have access to. And given that they seem to know their onions when it comes to the oil sector, I would extrapolate that conclusion further and suggest to you all that they're trying to steal your company from under your noses.I'm perfectly happy for that offer to be taken off the table right now and for us to see full value. And I would be amazed if there are no other interested parties now that Delek have put their heads above the parapet.100% No to the current offer
Otterman
07 Feb 2017
Petrofac 20% stake in GSA With Petrofac having a 20% stake in the GSA, I wonder whether shares in Petrofac are a better way of playing this now given that Ithaca is close to the bid price. Think the bid price of 120p is too low but not that convinced that a higher offer will appear. The analysts have mainly viewed the share less well than the PI's, probably due to the low reserves number. Petrofac have fallen back a bit since the Delek bid so not too bad an entry point. Also believe that Petrofac have a 20% stake in Harrier. While GSA is relatively small compared with the size of Petrofac, it will still have a meaningful impact on the bottom line.Any thoughts?
smilingmickey1
07 Feb 2017
Re: Currently trading below offer Those holding (including me) are taking the risk on the exchange rate movement between now and when the rate would be set which may give a positive or negative return. Also bear in mind that the were the bid to be accepted the exchange rate is likely to be set little less favourable than what is quoted on the exchange rate web sites at that time.What the current price says is that mr market thinks this is a knock out blow.One of the posters has bought more shares. This is a punt with limited downside risk on currency movement with potentially a more significant upside in the case of a better offer so one worth considering. The CEO said on the conference call that he confidently expects first oil before the end of February. A good start up might trigger another bidder to come forward. Note however that IAL will have to pay Delek a tidy sum to break off the agreement so the bid will need to exceed Delek's offer by (I think) circa 17 million can dollars to be equivalent to Delek.SM
pannon
07 Feb 2017
Re: Long time holder breaks voyeuristic ... I know what you mean...I stuck with Dragon oil till we were taken out but made a six figure profit. I got in at 20p here (but also bought at 1.40 so doohhh...but now extremely well up after a 6 bagger. I hate greed and I know that what I have is a very handsome sum of money I can cash in..already done so with 70K to help the kids out. But I really hate being ripped off and this deal is just that...£1.40 or £1.50 fair enough but if the oil doesn't flow before the the end of the takeover period they the BOD must be culpable ...Thats way another offer will come fro Delek if not from another party...we do need another bidder to help out..rant over..have a good evening. PS Money I make will be circulated back into the economy without doubt so allow us to make a bigger contribution to the economy Ithaca Board and Delek
NerveWreck
07 Feb 2017
Re: Long time holder breaks voyeuristic ... I've been there before too...When Dragon bid for BLVN and we all sat tight waiting for a better offer - then it was withdrawn and replaced with nothing.I'm out today just because of that lesson - but I sure hope this pays off nicely for those of you who believe in it and want to stick around.Hands down this was my best investment ever. 1st tranche at 16.8p, second at 17.2p out at 118.75p. Can't risk having this offer withdrawn.With gratitude... Best of luck to all holders,NW
jaxonsax
07 Feb 2017
Re: Currently trading below offer some significant levels of buying in the last hour - buys/sells almost level
