Drainboy
17 Feb 2017
Value I've been trying to figure out what fair value is and how likely we are that Dalek will move their bid in that direction.On January 3rd 2014 oil was around $107 and we were at 154pBack then we were just completing the A2 well. In May 2014 FPF-1 was scheduled for completion in spring 2015 with first oil for mid-2015 (and we all know how that turned out). We had around 328m shares in issue giving a market cap of £505m. We also had debt of $348m, which would have been £209m at the exchange rate at that time, to give a total enterprise value of £714mWe now have FPF-1 producing hydrocarbons, five drilled wells, oil at just over half the price and an offer at 120p. With 413m shares that gives a market cap of £485m. We now have debt of around $600m, which works out to £480m at current exchange rates, giving an enterprise value of £965mSo old IAE had an EV of £714m with FPF-1 a distant dream and oil at $107 pb.New IAE has an EV of £965m with first hydrocarbons from a finished FPF-1 and oil at $55 pbIs 120p a fair price in that scenario? I'm not sure. I was always hoping IAE would manage to buy up more reserves on the cheap, but we hardly have spare debt to do that and new production will take a while to get us that headroom (though it's certainly possible).I'm hoping that to ensure things go smoothly, Dalek will up their offer. I don't know how likely this is nor how likely a counter offer is.In summary, there are some facts and absolutely no conclusion
moonie2
17 Feb 2017
Re: No movement with Stella news Not strange if the vote is before is before the end of March!
waldpyk
17 Feb 2017
Re: No movement with Stella news why "delay" further info on Stella till end marchwhy not keep us up to date on our most important fieldstrangewaldpyk
Hub
17 Feb 2017
Re: No movement with Stella news Great bull,The sp has gone from 16p to 118p+ in just over a year due to sector recovery but mostly due to Stella coming online.I understand your sentiment, but it was managements astute hedging policy that got Ithaca through the downturn. It was management's smart deal with Petrofac that got Stella to where it is today without more debt. I could go on.It's disappointing to see first oil and the sp not move due to the offer price of 120p capping any rise. But it's a risky world out there with a lot of 'change' going on which normally spells trouble in the future.The DOW is at all time highs and the market overall looks like a bubble created by QE.If things turn nasty and PoO drops due to recessionary style gdp's (inc china) the Saudi's and OPEC will not be able to do much about it. They can control supplies but they can't control demand.I'd rather the DOW was around 17000 right now rather than 20500 as any blow correction will see 'all' stocks effect although I suspect a flight to gold would take place strengthening that price.In summary, IAE's management got it in the neck for turning down a 190p+ bid some years ago. What if they turned down this120p bid only then to see the markets wobble and the so drop to 50p+???It's a tough call and Delek are taking on a lot of risk with this deal.You never know, once they complete due diligence, they might pull out and you will then see what happens to the share price when a 20% holder departs.I think the management have done a great job on many things. Stella's delays have actually proven to be beneficial as PoO is higher now as opposed to 2015/16. In the end, they failed to deliver 'top whack' for shareholders but bear in mind that many holders have averaged down over the last few years so 120p may well feel like 200p+ to some. A near 8 bagger in the last 12 months will have quite few doing much much better than any 200p deal from years ago. And that's the problem... the market downturn provided opportunities and Delek took them.That's life.HUB
Mr Papillon
17 Feb 2017
There she blows Now let's wait and see what happens with this offer debacle!
great bull
17 Feb 2017
No movement with Stella news Very sad to see the share price just frozen with no movement, Ithaca BOD should hang their heads in shame,they have turned a special moment which we have been waiting for years into a non event. Criminal.
Scooby Doo It
17 Feb 2017
Re: FFS Vote If they get to 80% we have to take the offer anywa
Scooby Doo It
17 Feb 2017
Re: Stella First Oil - RNS Before the Delek offer we would be re-rating, now the news is a damp squib. I can see the value of a bid from Dalek POV as Buffett says I like buying dollars for cents.There has to be another bid,
Gus1065
17 Feb 2017
Re: Stella First Oil - RNS Well, it was released Friday after all...... Just a week later than suggested.---------- ---------- ---------- ------Ithaca Energy Inc.Stella First Hydrocarbons17 February 2017 Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX: IAE, LSE AIM: IAE) ("Ithaca" or the "Company"
is pleased to announce the successful start-up of production from the Stella field. Production has been started from the field and oil export to the adjacent shuttle tanker has commenced. The production ramp-up phase will commence when the on-going commissioning of the gas processing and compression facilities is complete. Further information on the status of Stella field operations will be provided when the Company issues its 2016 Financial Results in late March 2017.
onedb1
15 Feb 2017
1.95 at current fx of 1.625 = 120p Yet trading at around 117.75 today lol. In sterling terms we may even go above 120p if £ keeps on falling vs Canadian
AvonSeaWitch
14 Feb 2017
Re: FFS Vote If you vote no and the bid goes through anyway, you will again be offered the opportunity to sell at the bid price. At this point, you will end up as a minority shareholder if you still don't agree although the company will often buy your shares anyway if you approach them personally - more hassle tho as you have to do the admin yourself.
high blood pressure1
13 Feb 2017
Re: Knew it If first oil is announced before a new bid, it won't go above £1.20 I can tell you that with confidenc
high blood pressure1
13 Feb 2017
Re: FFS Vote Selling and buying premier is already paying off for me. Just hope for a reversal of some substance over there.If the bid is rejected and the price falls ill buy back in but as with most things in this corporate world. My experience is that the big boys always win.
avno
12 Feb 2017
Re: FFS Vote As a person who has seen many takeovers, I have voted no at least twice and not managed to stop the bid but still ended up getting the offer price as the company did not want minority share holders. I will not be accepting the current offer.
pannon
12 Feb 2017
Re: FFS Vote Its good point about the 51% ...but hard to know how the percentage is progressing and will large Institutions really want to get locked out ? Lets see how Institutions behave in next month or so...and what happens when new oil is online..Even Malcy in his interview seemed resigned to this deal even though its rubbish
