onedb1
20 Feb 2017
For all the talk of value Ie the 120p offer not being enough ( which I agree with ) and the much awaited Stella hook up now started . We are offered shares at 116.75 in the free market today . So something weird as 1.95 / 1.631 = 1.195 Puzzling as 120 is deemed to low but 1.16775 isn't lol
Genemachine
20 Feb 2017
Re: Vote NO - persuade the institutions Sorry to dampen all the debate and conversion BUT the stock price being below the offer price tells you that this is a "done deal"! If the market thought there was a chance of a counter offer the market price would be hovering above £1.20 . So unlikely the deal will fail especially as endorsed by management who historically have been praised for their decision making. I do criticise them however for mis judging the date of "first hydrocarbons" and for delaying giving the market any updates until end March which shows acceptance of the takeover.
jaxonsax
20 Feb 2017
Re: Vote NO - persuade the institutions Great post dede. I think he absence of any RNS showing irrevocable acceptances by said II's shows it wasnt that well received by institutions as its standard practice to try and garner those in a takeover to convince others to accept. Whilst Delek can match the price of another bidder - if that bidder was to get those II's to sign irrevocables to accept a higher bid (say 140 or 150) then Deleks ability to match is basically ineffective they would have to beat the rival offer. And other smaller/private shareholders are so racked off they would accept anyone other than Delek it seems.Similarly there is much talk about the break fee of c£10m but that represents about 2.5p per share so if someone was going to bid higher it would hardly deter them would it?My guess is it wont go through at 120 whatever else happens
dede s
20 Feb 2017
Re: Vote NO - persuade the institutions Sorry forgot to mention we need 50% of the nett 323.6m voting shares, and if we could persuade the 8 known inst,s to vote NO it leaves just 53.2m shares held by smaller inst,s and PI,s.Your NO vote is important.
dede s
20 Feb 2017
Vote NO - persuade the institutions There are 412.7m shares in issue, but Delek,s holding of 81.9m are excluded from the vote, therefore there are 323.6m voting shares.The known inst, shareholding is 108.6m:-Axa 32.1mBlackrock 16.9Cavendish 13.3Artemis 11.7Invesco 11.6Thomson 10.9Aviva 6.1Majedie 6.0 I am this week writing to each of these to make clear my objections to the Delek offer, and my concern that the BOD has reccommended approval of such a low ball offer. I shall be asking for their response in particular are they aware of any "private agreements between Delek and the IAE BOD" I have investments with 4 of these Inst.s and will be wording the letter to ensure I get a response, however I doubt they will tell me how they are voting unless they make a public statement. Cavendish and Artemis have already made it clear they will be voting against.I am also writing to (possibly all twelve) the analysts who cover IAE, reminding them of the very positive statements they have made in the past, I have to my research on this front to pick pocket the most positive statements they have made. Finally I am writing to the Chairman of IAE to express my views on the offer, and stating I expect to see his resignation when the vote is NO. I urge all share holders reading this board who think the offer is low ball, to do the following:-1. Ensure you vote by contacting your broker.2. If you have investments with any of listed inst,s write them outlining your objections.Good luck, and remember you must vote, no good bemoaning the offer, take action, it is your company.
onedb1
20 Feb 2017
Currently worth 119.5 And I can buy at 117 lol Free money . Those selling are either not understanding this nice trade or are moving to another momentum stock
Scooby Doo It
20 Feb 2017
HUB - No movement with Stella news Hub, It's a tough call and Delek are taking on a lot of risk with this deal. - Not at allYou never know, once they complete due diligence, they might pull out and you will then see what happens to the share price when a 20% holder departs. - Not at allI don't see Dalek taking a risk, debt is manageable and Stella on line, it's an opportunist bid after the hard work has been done. We've had other suitors, I hope they're mobilising now.
tullowtosell
20 Feb 2017
Re: No movement with Stella news Absolutely. I will be voting NO.
moonie2
19 Feb 2017
Re: No movement with Stella news The'll ' only get away with it ' if they get enough votes. Just vote against it - we were at £1 ish before the approach.Takeovers are not a given - I don't mind selling out, but the premium is not enough for me.This is an oppurtunistic bid with a cosey management...
Fanny15
18 Feb 2017
Re: No movement with Stella news The annoying thing is they'll get away with it, and walk away quids in with the behind the scene deals that they'll negotiate with the new buyers Delek. It's our hard earnt money that's the negotiating tool here, and they could have done a damn better job at negotiating a much better price instead of selling-out so cheaply.
billjan
17 Feb 2017
Situation My irritation is with the timing of the offer but more the recommendation of the offer by the BOD in the spell before stella first oil was confirmed. One can argue that on fundamentals (some would say investment world - haha) it shouldn't matter but in the market/short term trading world it does. In the rational world it would be accepted that the Sp would go up on the good news announcement of first oil albeit we know that markets work in strange ways. risk. My trade or investment was based on good news on stella first oil would be good news for the share price - in my opinion the board in recommending the offer by Delek effectively stifled that risk/reward debate and the share price has stuck. I have been prevented from making that call by the decision of the BOD. Now I have no real idea what to do but do feel thati it has been misjudged as it seems too cozy - I am going to stop in case I get irritatedAl the best
Gus1065
17 Feb 2017
Re: Value A concern that I, and a few other IAE investors I've spoken to, have is that we're not being given the full story about what Delek and the incumbent management have planned for the future of the asset. The (quite probably unfounded) fear is a scenario where the shareholders accept the 120p price at face value while behind the scenes IAE management and Delek cut a sweetheart deal allowing them to stay on post an run an enlarged UK North Sea operation for Delek on generous terms. Plenty of noise that such a conflict of interest couldn't possibly arise - but after the fact there's chuff all we can do about it. Perhaps if the IAE management either put themselves offside for any negotiations (i.e. Appoint a truly independent non-exec Chairman to negotiate the price and terms) or maybe sign up to a severance agreement whereby they lock themselves out of working for IAE/Delek in any capacity after a reasonable post acquisition handover period), shareholders might feel a bit less exposed to being suckered.Best,Gus.
Hub
17 Feb 2017
Re: Value You also have to remember that Delek paid 53p per share for their 19% holding/stake.4 months later, you, I and any investment company out there could buy IAE shares for 17p/18p/19p etcPrior to Delek taking the 19% stake, the sp was around 24p I believe. Delek paid double for that 19% stake.All in all, they were repaid for the risk taken.The point is... they paid a significant amount above the market price 'at the time' and were 60% down on their investment some 4 months later.They had no control over OPEC but had the foresight to see the advantages of getting in early. Some would say, they jumped the gun and should have waited another 3 to 4 months.Academic now, but you take on risk with a view of greater rewards. That's the point isn't it?HUB
Drainboy
17 Feb 2017
Re: Value You'd prefer them to be paying nearer 170p, but do you think they might raise the offer from 120p?If the deal is so good that the BoD is gnawing Dalek's arm off to get it through, then why is Dalek paying so much? If it's not, then why have the BoD signed up to a £10m break clause if it doesn't go through.So hard to tell without more information.I agree that Stella won't produce at full rate for 6 years. For a start that would be far more than the reserves held by it. It's hard to tell what discount Dalek are trying to get for the production by taking the risk as they haven't released their valuation report.All in all, something smells fishy, but it might not mean the deal is unfair.
Hub
17 Feb 2017
Re: Value Drainboy,Assumptions on Stella are just that... Assumptions. Stella needs to produce for at least 12 months with stability / steady production proven. Past wells on other assets have performed well and some have declined faster than expected. Athena is a good example. Some extend field life and others are cut short. The assumption that Stella will produce at 30kboepd for the next 6 years+ is a little optimistic. Investors often become a little dreamy when looking at production figures one year only then to see them drop the next.Delek are taking on a decent wedge of risk and deserve a discount for doing so. I would prefer they paid nearer 170p but that's not going to happen.Premier Oil's Solan project was supposed to be doing 20k to 25kboepd. It's costs are up near $1.6bln and currently due to production issues, the field is doing about 10kboepd and doesn't look like doing 25kboepd until at Q2 2018 at earliest.From PMO's RNS on Solan"Production from the Premier-operated Solan field was lower than anticipated as a result of a later start-up and poorer than expected reservoir performance which is limiting water injection and P2 production rates. Actions to address this issue are underway including short term increases in water injection pump capacity (now implemented) and other modifications being considered for later in the year. Premier anticipates that production from the field in 2017 will remain at 10-13 kbopd with any material production uplift from remedial action unlikely before 2018. Production efficiency of the facilities has been good and six oil tanker-off loadings have now been successfully completed." END.In summary, the point is ... no one knows how Stella will perform and the next 6 months of production / ramp up is very important. Delek know this and have a bucket full of 'get out' clauses in place. I doubt any Delek offer deal will conclude or finalise for at least 4 months post AGM approval.All production carries risks as ultimately it is only worth what they can get out over a designated period of time. Things go wrong and on flip side, things can often go better than forecast.HUB
