Rhigos
26 Feb 2015
Re: HEDGE FUNDS TARGETING BUILDERS oldjoe1,I agree with pharmaspecialist I would not worry about HWDN and good results today reinforce our opinions. I am grateful for your post however as I recently bought Berkeley Group shares and am wondering if that was a mistake, particularly as they are focused on London and SE.Based on results I still think HWDN a strong buy. I gave HSDN a strong buy on 26 Nov when I first bought and am now a little over 18% up on gross purchase price.
pharmaspecialist
09 Feb 2015
Re: HEDGE FUNDS TARGETING BUILDERS Whilst I don't like Howdens customer service, it's worth pointing out that the operation of the business is unlikely to suffer unduly in the event of a downturn in the London housing market. In the downturn in house prices in 2008/9 Howden's revenue and profits fell somewhere in the region of 10% and of course that was a nationwide fall in house prices, not just London. Howden tends to expand using the cash generated by its business rather than by taking on debt and this makes it more resilient to downturns in property prices as it does not have debt to service. Indeed, it is currently in a position to pay special dividends as it generates so much cash, despite the cost of opening new branches. However, there may be a knee jerk reaction if the very high London property prices collapse and if Howden's share price falls then, I will certainly buy some shares.
oldjoe1
09 Feb 2015
HEDGE FUNDS TARGETING BUILDERS From the Ft today:"Hedge funds have begun to take out bets against property businesses that are exposed to the downturn in London’s housing market, in the first sign that investors are tentatively seeking to profit from the slowdown.Several hedge funds have taken out short positions, essentially bets that a company’s share price will fall, against estate agents Foxtons and Savills, along with property portal Zoopla, and housebuilder Berkeley Group.The capital faces a surfeit of expensive new homes as developers rush to profit from foreign demand to buy in London.While the bets are still relatively small they represent the first sign that hedge funds have begun to move against the UK property market after several years of surging house prices, and the high-profile stock market listings of Foxtons and Zoopla."
iolots
31 Jan 2015
Re: One reason Howden outperforms Excellent observation and a timely warning for me.Is this is one of those cases of a great short-term strategy for a company and shareholders but not for the real customers or long term builders?I wondered why no one has picked this up before but I suppose because if anyone gets angry it is directed at the builders, if they are still around, and the individual cases are not news. I like to see it when the consumer programmes pick up such anti-customer behaviour by companies. Obviously such behaviour will eventually blow up any company and ruin it sooner or later. That's why share holders always people need to carefully watch for directors run for the exit and follow asap,Hopefully Howden will not go down that way but I am not so confident now.Shame.Just off to look at Wickes and B&Q and put a tainted catalogue in the recycling bin.
pharmaspecialist
08 Jan 2015
One reason Howden outperforms One aspect of their business which helps Howdens outperform is rarely mentioned. This is the company's ability to skirt round legislation intended to protect consumers by aiming to sell their products only to tradesmen. The way it works is that the tradesman buys the kitchen and the appliances for the kitchen and then fits them for the consumer. A year or so down the line, when something goes wrong with the kitchen or with one of the company's integrated Lamona electrical appliances, the consumer can do nothing about this as he or she has no contract with Howdens as it is the builder who actually bought the items. You can of course contact the builder and ask him or her to take up your case to get a replacement or repair from Howdens but in my experience builders are not very keen on doing this and are certainly unwilling to take the matter further when Howdens refuses to help (Howdens always refuses in my experience). Fortunately in my case I insisted on buying my appliances directly from Howdens but I still had to sue them to get any money back when my Lamona appliance broke down and was irrepairable. They used the argument that they do not deal with the public so I had no rights even though it was my debit card that had bought the product. I imagine that this ability to avoid consumer protection legislation by selling things to consumers via builders must be worth quite alot to the company and has no doubt continued to help in today's financial results. My experience with them trying to defend this position suggests they really could not care less about the consumers who actually provide the money to buy their products and that their traditional friendly image is far from justified.
malj1
08 Jan 2015
Re: Pretax profits As for the ROCE you should realise that ca 60% of shf is cash which is earning nothing. At the last b/s HWDN had arguably ca £100m free cash (the other £60m could be used to clear the pension fund deficit). If this cash were paid out as a SD, this would make plain that the ROCE on the portion of operating assets which are really generating the return (ie the non cash part) is humungous. We shall see.
Rhigos
08 Jan 2015
Re: Pretax profits I think this company will continue to outperform for at least another year. ROCE of 42.2% is extraordinary good. PE of 24.3, based on yesterdays closing price, would suggest fully valued but I still rate as a weak buy on any dip.
EyesonHawk2
08 Jan 2015
Pretax profits Howden Joinery estimates full-year profit above market consensusJan 8 (Reuters) - Modular Kitchen maker Howden Joinery Group Plc estimated that full-year pretax profit would be above market consensus, raising its expectations for the second time in just over two months.Analysts were expecting a 2014 pretax profit from continuing operations before exceptional items of between 172 million pounds ($259.24 million) to 179 million pounds, Howden Joinery said in a statement.
II Editor
06 Jan 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: Risk/reward profile favours upside "How ratings change! When I first drew attention to kitchen cabinets and joinery products group LSE:HWDN:Howden Joinery in April 2011 its shares traded on a single-figure price/earnings multiple with the price at 112p. Now 407p it is 19 times ..."[link]
ikiendingegan
18 Dec 2014
Flatpack Kitchen Cabinets Flatpack Kitchen Cabinets.Thirty Ex Display Kitchens To Clear. www.exdisplaykitchens1.co.uk £ 595 Each with appliances.Tel 01616-694785
white_van_man
05 Dec 2014
Re: One to buy from data mining Broker recs Rhigos, will post the link tomorrow if time allows.
Rhigos
05 Dec 2014
Re: One to buy from data mining Data mining worked. I am up 5.5% in 9 days on this share.Halma (HLMA) another one selected from same data mining filter up 6.8% in 3 months.Got to admit I do not know why SP of HWDN +4.6% today. Anyone any ideas why?
Rhigos
28 Nov 2014
Re: One to buy from data mining white_van_man,Yes a typo meant 385p, 387.35p gross.It was interesting reading your comments on HWDN as a customer. I am glad to learn that they are busy. According to fundamentals they are very profitable. I wish I had bought in Oct but think there is more upside. I am already in the black +0.9% after dealing costs.Broker targets range from 440 to 500. Your target of around 450 seems reasonable. Mine is nearer 500 which would be a rise of about 40% on my purchase price. I think it could get there within 6 months. My shares relating to house building, PSN, BLND and GFRD are all doing well and there should therefore be a strong demand for new kitchens.
white_van_man
27 Nov 2014
Re: One to buy from data mining Hi Rhigos,First of all, hope your 485p was a typo mistake!Being a builder when I wanted windows or doors most merchants held only a very limitedRange in stock, I would have to order and wait 10,20, even 30 days depending on the productI wanted and demand at the time. Other direct selling joinery companies had disappeared in theearly 90's recession, then along came Howden's with an extensive stock range where I could just roll up and get what I wanted when I wanted it, at good prices too. The staff were very enthusiastic and helpful, which is not always the case with builders merchants, and as I used them more I noticed they were getting more busier and I always asked the staff how things were going and always got a good response.So I initially took the plunge at 60p, adding more at 110 and 120.I bought some for the wife on the dip a few months ago (her money) at 314 as I thought they were oversold.I do not tend to use them much nowadays, they ceased doing windows some years ago and IThink mainly they concentrate on kitchens which I do not do very often. I am not altogetherHappy with the quality of their doors nowadays but when I do go in they are always busyAnd most people in the trade use them.I am happy holding at the moment, but the time will come when they will turn down, A competitor, over expansion, construction downturn, whatever. 450p would start me thinkingAbout selling, I think its achievable in the next 6 months or so.Anyway, they have served me well, and I hope they do the same for you.WVM (above explains the name).
Rhigos
26 Nov 2014
Re: One to buy from data mining white_van_man, I have not looked at this board for a while. Congratulations for buying at 60p, you will be up about 550%! As a matter of interest what inspired you to buy?
