malj1
25 Jul 2019
Re: hy Yet another excellent performance. Doing exactly what it says on the tin & doing it v well. In the event Bojo walks his talk & mojo’s the housing market, with a cut/cancellation to SDLT, HJ will vomit cash on a massive scale.
malj1
26 Jul 2018
Trading update Total t/o up +12% yoy (lfl +11%) on moderate store rollout. That looked good to me. The worst one can say about housing transactions/completions is they are eroding marginally. Ironically I suspect right now the more folk are stuck in their existing house the more likely they are to consider a kitchen refurb. The declines in gm%/op% look to be quasi exceptionals. Pension deficit effectively eliminated (& that whilst gilt yields are on the floor). My cf projection if a yr out there to be ca +£330m net cash on the b/s (pre buybacks). HJ are doing & delivering what it says on the tin, unlike so many other companies right now.
Gamesinvestor1
26 Jul 2018
Trading update [link] Seemed like reasonable enough results, haven’t read the forward looking statements, but the like for like sales (existing stores) grew 10%, albeit with a slight margin reduction. Is it the calm before the storm as the housing market seems now to be in deadlock with stuff sticking like glue - many on the market for over a year. Games
II Editor
11 May 2018
NEW ARTICLE: How our Winter Portfolio strategy made a 56% profit "Our fourth year of winter portfolios was not an easy one. Market volatility spiked as the bells rung in 2018, and a spectacular Santa rally unravelled in equally spectacular fashion when Donald Trump's tariff idea threatened a trade war with ..."[link]
II Editor
13 Apr 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Howden Joinery: The IKEA of fitted kitchens "The starting point for any long-term investment is to understand the business. LSE:HWDN:Howdens' annual report shows it does the same thing as it did last year and every year since it was founded in 1995, which is supply kitchens. Howdens ..."[link]
oldjoe1
26 Feb 2018
Howden Joinery Report On Thursday........ HWDN Howden Joinery. HWDN Howden Joinery Group, report on thursday I think. Ist March.Last update here......... [link] look what happened on the chart......[link] chart below its the large vertical rise coming off the bottom from Nov 1st.
II Editor
22 Dec 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Getting serious about strategy "At this time of year many investors think about performance. They may review what went up, what went down and what they learned. Since I think monitoring short-term movements in share prices teaches me nothing about the long-term performance of ..."[link]
malj1
02 Nov 2017
Re: Trading Statement Doing what I says on the tin. H2 specific LFLs are probably ca+7% min, with further uptick to feed through. Plus stable high gm%. Looks undervalued, but as any fule kno the house market is gonna collops. PS a couple of fules can be found on the Barratt bb!
Rhigos
02 Nov 2017
Re: Trading Statement Good to see one of the companies I have shares in producing a bullish trading update. Partly compensates for recent ones from WEIR and NXT. At yesterday's close SP was about 22% down on Dec 2015 all-time closing high of 531p. Was beginning to think I should have sold out in 2015. HWDN has an impressive ROCE of 47.6%. I think what has been holding SP down are brokers negative forecasts for growth e.g. pre-tax profit growth -5.1% and EPS growth of -2.3%. Perhaps they will revise forecasts and SP will rise even more.
Triggers broom
02 Nov 2017
Trading Statement Nice update, performance is looking as solid as one of their marble worktops.
II Editor
04 Aug 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Air Partner: A successful company, striving to be more successful "So what's wrong with Air Partner?What do you mean, what's wrong with it?You reduced the Share Sleuth portfolio's holding to a small rump of shares, and then said perhaps you should have got rid of them all*. Something must be wrong with it…Ah. ..."[link]
gamesinvestor
21 Jul 2017
Re: Analysis of HWDN by Phil Oakley ""However, it seems that there has been a significant slowdown in growth during the last 18 months.""Hardly surprising really, as the housing market looks like it is rolling over the top and transaction volumes have plummeted in the last 12 months. If new kitchens are linked to transactions, then there lies the answer.I have a friend who is a management consultant who contracts into Howden's and he's seeing the business on a downtrend.Also the credit facility isn't unique, trade accounts are offered at all the big suppliers so I'm not sure why this is always highlighted as unique to Howdens.This article also from Richard Beddard shows a recent purchase around today's price :-[link] argument about the 16 P/E is all well and good but the E could change very rapidly in this business.It doesn't look cheap to me, but you can probably discount something in my view, because I'm overly negative on the UK housing market.Most people think interest rates will be close to zero for ever. I don't believe they will as they were always above inflation for the last 300 years, except in the last 10 years coupled with QE.It all seems quite false - and houses selling at close to 8.5X the average salary is pxles apart from the historic level of 3.5 to 4X.This stock could get hammered if there is a severe downturn - then again it might not.Games -- It's a pass on my part I think.
Rhigos
16 Jun 2017
Why 5.1% fall in SP yesterday? Yesterday the big fall in SP triggered my 15% below high stop loss, though have yet to sell. Today's bounce is of dead cat variate.Did a quick internet search but could not find any convincing for yesterday's sell off other than perhaps fear if interest rate rise.
Rhigos
01 Jun 2017
Analysis of HWDN by Phil Oakley I found this article on HWDN by well respected analyst Phil Oakley who now works for Ionic owner of ShareScope and SharePad, very interesting. It gives a good description of business as well as a good analysis.[link] paragraph I have a comment on: "One of the key sources of growth is growing the number of trade credit accounts per depots. Howdens has been good at doing this. Note the big jump in 2016. Is this a cause for concern? Does it signal that the company is having to offer more generous credit terms in order to maintain and grow sales? Or is it a genuine sign of depot managers' ability to grow the underlying business?"I read elsewhere: that that small building firms very much like the extended credit that HWDN gives as it enables them to complete job and get paid by client before it has to pay for kitchen etc. from HWDN. A real help with cash-flow for builders.Phil comments:"Howdens has enjoyed a strong financial performance in recent years but the future looks as if it is going to be a little tougher."and concludes"However, it seems that there has been a significant slowdown in growth during the last 18 months."I am glad I reduced my holding by selling some in Feb 2016 at 489.2 and now happy to hold rump for long term. SP has moved up 26% since a low in early Nov last year.
II Editor
18 May 2017
NEW ARTICLE: A mid-cap worth keeping an eye on "HOWDEN JOINERY (LSE:HWDN)Every now and then, we get a bunch of emails asking about a share we have tended to ignore. Sometimes, this grouping of interest can suggest news is brewing, sometimes it suggests someone is talking rubbish in discussion ..."[link]
