Ricfle
30 Jan 2020
Share Price fynne: This is a pointless hypothetical argument… currently the average water cut has been less than 10%. 20,000bopd will mean less than 2000b water … all easily within capacity. The point is that the more water produced less capacity for oil. As to an average 10% water cut, no one can say if this will increase or decrease when the wet well is put back on production, or over what period. As one well has produced water at 25-30% I am not sure where your 10% comes from. If you were trying to produce 10,000 barrels of oil from the wet well you would produce 3,000 barrels of water. Say, for example, you tie in another Lancaster well and it is also wet at 30%, then producing 10,000 barrels from each well would produce 6,000 barrels of water, so to handle this you would have to reduce production to 29,000 barrels of oil (max fluid handling capacity of FPSO 35,000 barrels per day.) The good news from yesterdays RNS is that there was no mention about the dry well making any water.
fynne
30 Jan 2020
Share Price This is a pointless hypothetical argument… currently the average water cut has been less than 10%. 20,000bopd will mean less than 2000b water … all easily within capacity. We’ll find out in the next quarterly update (which I hope will clear up some of the misunderstandings on production) whether the water cut is higher (or lower?) As for the share price … I think the last two drills with spirit we’re not only a disappointment but also added an extended period of uncertainty … people sold out!
ash6666
30 Jan 2020
Share Price Yes, very good, but would this not reduce the oil production to 15,000 barrels per day? The AM can handle 20,000bwpd if so required. HUR produces nothing like that.
Ricfle
30 Jan 2020
Share Price bobsson: No it would not I suggest you look at the data sheet for the Aoka Mizu. Total fluid handling capacity is 35,000 barrels per day, minus the 20,000 water leaves 15,000 oil.
ash6666
29 Jan 2020
Share Price I came to the conclusion that this is a longer wait than I expected or wanted a while ago. Too late to sell now. Still worried that we will only end up with the oil we have today plus one more drill on Lancaster. Given up all hope on the bigger Warwick area and Halifax. If the SP ever gets to £1, maybe less, I will sell. Maybe this time next year I will sell at 60p.
bobsson
29 Jan 2020
Share Price No it would not
Ricfle
29 Jan 2020
Share Price bobsson: the FPSO has capacity to handle 20,000 barrels of produced water a day Yes, very good, but would this not reduce the oil production to 15,000 barrels per day?
bobsson
29 Jan 2020
Share Price Hi Albi, Yes it looks like a case of get rich slowly here. However when the penny drops that HUR is onto something good the sp action could be very exciting! If we see tanker offloads every 21 days we will know all is well. There is scope for more production success confirmation in any February RNS about 2020 drilling plans. Produced perched water is always going to give the derampers ammunition to speculate, but the FPSO has capacity to handle 20,000 barrels of produced water a day, and for 20,000 bopd the Lancaster wells are likely to produce less than 3000 bopwd. Cash is flowing into the company coffers, lets keep building the cash and buy back the convertible bonds whilst continuing to appraise the contract areas. IMHO NAI
Ricfle
29 Jan 2020
Share Price Albi1: Today’s RNS I would have hoped would put end to speculation. Why? State some reasons? What new information did the RNS give us? Anything new about the water cut? Albi1: They have always stated they need 6-12 months of data - 12 months takes us to September this year From todays RNS: “The planned Capital Markets Day, on 25 March 2020, represents the earliest date that the Company anticipates being in possession of data and analysis suitable for dissemination to shareholders and the wider market.†So not Sept 2020, but 25 March 2020. Try and reading the RNS and not what you want to hear.
Albi1
29 Jan 2020
Share Price Hi Ash, Bobsson and Alibi_8, Carliol and Lawven if you’re still here! Today’s RNS I would have hoped would put end to speculation. It seems to me it’s simply a matter of awaiting either the CMD or the update on 19th March by which time they will have had enough time to reach some preliminary conclusions based on hard data. They have always stated they need 6-12 months of data - 12 months takes us to September this year (if you go by the September '19 RNS re. well testing etc.) So not much to say apart from I’ve come to terms with the fact this is a longer hold than I’d first anticipated and in the bottom drawer for a rainy day it goes!
bobsson
29 Jan 2020
Warwick & Lincoln 3 wells drilling 2020 The contract for the PBLJ drilling rig starts on 15/2/2020, sadly as we know the rig will not be emerging from the Norwegian fjord in a couple of weeks time. However I look forward to an update from the joint venture in February to confirm the rig will be used to complete the Lincoln well as a production well, and also to drill the Lincoln sub-vertical well as required by the OGA. I also hope Spirit agree to let HUR use the PBLJ to drill another Lancaster production well. Any other drilling this year will I think be a bonus. I am also looking out for any signs drilling site preparation work. DYOR
bobsson
29 Jan 2020
Lancaster/Halifax drilling 2020 Ops update today confirms HUR want to drill another production well at Lancaster this year. It will produce from a separate part of the field from the current two production wells. Further details in February I hope.
bobsson
29 Jan 2020
Share Price squinn, As your post was 5 hours ago, I take it you read todays RNS before making any decision to sell? The EPS is working well and is about to start producing 20,000 bpd which will bring in $36 million per month at $60 oil. The UKCS fractured basement play is being proved up bit by bit, I am sure the share price will respond positively to continued good news. IMHO
bobsson
29 Jan 2020
Lancaster Oil Production ( EPS ) A much needed positive operational update today. Well 7z going to be opened this weekend to make a combined average of 20,000 bpd going forward. I just hope that at the CMD on 25th March the 7z water cut is shown to be receding. Still lots of operational news to come, and that should be in another ops update in February. Good to see we will have quarterly production numbers released, including water cut! The company continues to generate strong casfhlow, we must be the envy of so many other small E&P companies. EPS news I want to know in February, details of the next Lancaster well, progress report on FPSO gas utilisation and WOSP export. Share price up a meagre 1.5p at 23p (ish) 12.10 pm on such great news DYOR
Alibi_8
29 Jan 2020
Share Price You may wish to revisit that post, Squinn.
