Hurricane Energy Live Discussion

bobsson 15 Jan 2020

Share Price squinn, 6 months so middle of July. I have no idea what the share price will be then. However things that might happen between now and then, and I will state them in the positive but they may turn out to be negative. The Lancaster EPS production ramps up to 20,000 bpd average The water cut from the 7z well starts to decline, so proving it is perched water The FPSO modifications and tie back to the WOSP nearly complete to enable it to handle 30,000 bpd The Lincoln Crestal well is completed and work is being undertaken to tie it back to the FPSO in partnership with Spirit The Warwick licence, which expires 31/8/2020 is extended for 5 years with a one well drill obligation The Halifax Licence, which expires 13/11/2020 is extended for 5 years with a two well drill obligation The sub vertical Lincoln well has completed and been P&Ad and shows Lincoln field is large and does run into PMOs licence area - Solan. The rig has spudded a third Lancaster production well. The JV has agreed to drill a second Lincoln production well and it is going to be tied back to the Solan production facility. The oil price is now consistently at $75 per barrel and HUR is receiving $30 million for every 21 day offload of oil. The continued success of HURs WOS project leads to media speculation that a major oil company is considering either a farm in or a takeover bid. Just my rose tinted view

ash6666 15 Jan 2020

Share Price I guess they balance out, more certainty about the ones flowing but only about half the overall full field left. Everyone, ie the big boys, knows the plan so I’m assuming all we are likely to get is the current SP, for at least a year anyway.

Flossoffa 15 Jan 2020

Share Price ash6666: My guess for 6 months from now - 31p Is that a minus sign? `The market’ is supposed never to be wrong but HUR was valued (by the market) at almost twice the current price well before there was any certainty about getting commercial production from fractured basement, yet the reality must be far better than envisaged back then as we now have a high oil price and tankers shuttling back and Florth

ash6666 15 Jan 2020

Share Price My guess for 6 months from now - 31p

squinn 14 Jan 2020

Share Price I agree Ricfle, I also would like to hear any other posters opinions on the SP and where we might be 6 months from now. I feel like the company should give a little more info…all seems pretty vague at the moment. We would really need to see a tie back to LC for any increase in price… However I seriously doubt that will happen 2020 so I agree with your statement on this being 2021. As I say, I am finding it extremely difficult to be bullish on this share now… Even in the mid to long term… Am I right…?.. Who knows, time will tell. Defo not for the faint hearted this one now…

Ricfle 14 Jan 2020

Share Price Squinn News as I see it: Next offload. Cannot see it making any difference to the SP. 2020 Q1 Presentation. Would be nice to know just what HUR and Spirit are actual going to do in 2020, but from reading the EV article they do not seem to know themselves. Could help or hinder the SP. Rig/drilling news. Cannot see any of the proposed wells giving the SP a boost. Tie in of Lincoln to FPSO. Looking at the EV article it seems to be on hold, so 2021 at earliest. At a total cost of $187.5m with Spirit paying $140.5m, plus rig costs of up to $52.5m, you can see why Spirit would drag their heels for a well with a PI of 18-20 after already paying $180.5m to drill it. Offloads at 20,000 barrels per day. Cannot see this making any lasting difference to the SP. End of year results. Sometimes the market does not take into account the money earned until the end of year results are published. Could benefit SP. CMD. This is water cut dependent. I believe the water is perched as HUR state, but what no one can say is how large it is. It could start decreasing as soon as they turn the next well on or it could increase for months. Also what was meant by Dr T in the EV article when he dodged the question “But what does constant production currently mean?”. Does the 6-12 months start from late Jan 2020 when they turn the wet well back on? Has anyone something I have missed or good reasons why the SP will go up, I would like to hear them.

bobsson 14 Jan 2020

Share Price Share price continues to struggle at around 27p today 14th January. We have no recent news from the company, but we await the 8th lift of oil soon. A poster on another bb has found that HUR are going to charter an anchor handling/survey ship soon. I am hoping it will be hired to find a location and lay anchors ready for another Lancaster production well. Another poster has speculated that the requirement for a Lincoln sub vertical well could be to define the field boundary to establish if the Lincoln field extends into PMOs Solan licence area. As I stated in an earlier post I think the joint venture between HUR and Spirit is unofficially paused pending the sale of Spirit this year. I would be happy to see Spirit leave, it means HURs stake will revert to 100%, I just hope its 100% of something big. HUR will be producing 20,000 bpd at the end of this month. We know the FPSO is easily capable of handling all the currently produced water, and then some, that the one Lancaster well is producing so no problems at all as far as I am concerned. There should be an oil lift every third weekend going forward, with two lifts in some months, this should be generating $25 million per offload. I fully expect an oil price in the $70 to $75 range this year which will push each offload to over $30 million. I really think HUR should give us a corporate update prior the CMD at the end of March. IMHO

Ricfle 14 Jan 2020

Share Price Thanks to Missdosh and Smoggey79 on LSE: Energy Voice – 14 Jan 20 Spark Exploration targets deal on billion-barrel West of Shetland licences -... Australia-based Spark Exploration is aiming to find partners in the first half of this year for its West of Shetland licences, which potentially contain north of a billion barrels of oil. [link]

squinn 14 Jan 2020

Share Price Ricfle, Share price has taken a beating. I think its hard to stay bull now. I mean, realistically is there anything positive to look forward to?..I’m starting to doubt that myself…what do you think? Cheers

Ricfle 08 Jan 2020

Lancaster Oil Production ( EPS ) Alibi_8: They may occasionally be affected by bad weather, although I would have thought that if that were the case it would only lead to there being more oil in the FPSO tanks than a tanker could take in one load. My understanding is the off load tankers BP use, are good for 700,000 barrels of oil, which is greater that the capacity of the FPSO (604,000 barrels). All HUR need to consider is the weather and tanker availability, which is presumably stipulated in the contract, so basically weather. 150,000 barrels of oil, or presently 10 + days of production seems like a good margin of error.

Alibi_8 08 Jan 2020

Lancaster Oil Production ( EPS ) They may occasionally be affected by bad weather, although I would have thought that if that were the case it would only lead to there being more oil in the FPSO tanks than a tanker could take in one load. In that case the time until the subsequent offload could be reduced as they wouldn’t have to wait as long from the offload until the tanks were back to 450k. In essence average over a longer period of time, what you are saying is clearly correct - they can only take off however much they get out the ground and there should be a direct correlation between pumped volume and offload volume.

Ricfle 08 Jan 2020

Lancaster Oil Production ( EPS ) bobsson: So perhaps there has been 300,000 barrels of “test” oil produced which is accounted for differently. They swapped them for 5 magic beans, so it may show as a loss in the end of year accounts. bobsson: So whichever figures you use, the AM is due an offload this weekend 11/12th Jan. From the RNS of the 13 Dec and the EV article we know that HUR are flowing the 6 well at 14,700 barrels per day until late Jan. The last offload was the 22 Dec 2019, so to produce a further 450,000 barrels it will take 31 days approx’ so 22 Jan. I think, I will use these figures as yours assume that there are hundreds of thousands of barrels left in the FPSO after an off load. For clarity, I am no expert on FPSO’s, but common senses would suggest that you fill it up, to less than the maximum, then off load all the oil, then repeat. After the first off load of 350,000 barrels we have seen evidence for 3 off loads at approx’ 450,000 barrels. The lasted RNS states 3.1m barrels after 7 off loads (6 X 450,000 +350,000) sounds about right. Would anyone like to explain why it is more difficult than this?

bobsson 08 Jan 2020

Lancaster Oil Production ( EPS ) w. Yes and the stormy weather is due to continue into this weekend. So perhaps offload next week as soon as the weather calms. Hang on to your hat!

westburrashetland 07 Jan 2020

Lancaster Oil Production ( EPS ) If the weather permitts? Weather and sea conditions around Shetland area at present are quite wild

bobsson 07 Jan 2020

Lancaster Oil Production ( EPS ) If HUR sold 2.8 mmbls and produced 3.1 mmbls in 2019, and will have produced around 3.5 mmbls at the time of the EV article above the AM is now holding around 700,000 barrels, it only holds 600,000 barrels. So perhaps there has been 300,000 barrels of “test” oil produced which is accounted for differently. So whichever figures you use, the AM is due an offload this weekend 11/12th Jan.