Rally over? This has had a bit of a rally recently but now that Opec have stuck to their strategy and are profucing 1m+ bpd surplus to demand, will this fizzle out or is demand catching up? I'm still down on my holding. D
NEW ARTICLE: Hunting keeps rising despite profits plunge "After admitting it didn't have a clue how 2015 would play out back in February, LSE:HTG:Hunting is being rewarded on Wednesday for shedding a little more light on this year's trading performance.First-quarter operating profit is down 60%, as ..."[link]
Very tough going From today's update:Hunting PLC (LSE:HTG), the international energy services group, which will today be holding its Annual General Meeting commencing at 10.30a.m., issues a 2015 Q1 trading update. During Q1 2015 market conditions across the oil and gas sector continued to be volatile, with global rig counts continuing to decrease, particularly in North America where data indicates a 46% decline since the start of the year. WTI oil prices averaged $49 per barrel during the first quarter of 2015, and capital expenditures across the industry have continued to reduce or be placed on review. This market environment has resulted in operating profits across Hunting's business being approximately 60% lower during Q1 2015 compared to Q1 2014. Only the Subsea, Electronics and Dearborn divisions performed above their Q1 2014 levels. However, as expected, Canada and US Drilling Tools experienced losses during the period. While US oil inventory growth and rig count decline has slowed, further cost reductions in the Group have occurred with employee levels down approximately 20% since the beginning of the year. The Group's capital investment program remains on schedule for completion during the year, with new facilities construction continuing at AmeriPort, Texas; Fryeburg, Maine; and Cape Town, South Africa. The Company continues to report a strong balance sheet, with no significant change to the financial position of the Group since the publication of the results for the year ended 31 December 2014.The Group's net debt position as at 3 April 2015 was approximately $164 million. While the current outlook for trading in the remainder of 2015 and into 2016 continues to be unclear, the Board remains of the opinion that capital investment and activity levels in the industry will recover, as and when the supply/demand balance across the industry is resolved. The Group's strategy of supplying a broad range of high value products to all major global regions remains unchanged as investment in South Africa, the Middle East and Singapore position the Group to capitalise on the market recovery as and when it occurs."[link]
Hunting infographic Hunting (LSE:HTG): [link] valuation info.
S move Todays move: illiquidity of the market? or change in sentiment? or a change in fundamentals?
NEW ARTICLE: Market unfazed as Hunting uncertainty continues "LSE:HTG:Hunting famously broke the reporting mould in February, being the first oil services company to admit it had no idea how the year ahead would play out. It was a risky move, but the City admired its honesty. A month on and visibility ..."[link]
Pressure on margins From a "seeking alpha" article, an indication of the margin pressures oil services companies will be facing:"CEO of Halliburton, Dave Lesar, warned investors against the tough year ahead for the company, in the company's fourth quarter conference call. Lesar could very well be right about the pains that Halliburton might see in the year ahead. To begin with, there are definite signs of a slowdown in activity in the industry as oil companies have revised their capital expenditure budgets downward. The risk of further reductions in capital expenditures is also possible, especially if oil prices plummet to lower levels. Additionally, the rig count in the industry has also declined dramatically in the past few weeks, according to a Baker Hughes reports. Though the rig count in the industry held up during the company's fourth quarter, we could see the decline in the rig count dent the company's first quarter earnings for the year. The company confirmed that it is in discussion with customers about price discount on it services, with many companies unwilling to execute contracts until service prices are lowered by at least 40%. Since oil companies clearly have the upper hand in this case, and as Halliburton could eventually be seen making concessions for customers, margin contraction could be a prominent feature of the year. In fact, margin weakness could prevail until oil prices rebound and capital budgets are increased, allowing new contracts to be negotiated at relatively better rates in the future."[link]
hows that for a RNS Down 5% on a RNS that said little most people did not know, and up near 5% at the close - so where next I think the results will not be as bad as expected a week or so agoWaiting on another chance for 465 but i may have to wait a long tim
NEW ARTICLE: Hunting uncertainty rocks market "Most were hoping the uncertainty clouding oil prices would start to lift this year, but oil services group LSE:HTG:Hunting has just confirmed the opposite, saying it is unable to set guidance for its future earnings as rig numbers continue to ..."[link]
Re: What a dog: Yes Jane, I think the frackers are becoming key here. Power and influence are shifting. It is interesting that BP are apparently working on an assumption that oil will average $60 a barrel for the next two years. Now Halliburton are laying off over 6,000. I like this company of all the oil service providers, but I still see it as fundamentally overpriced. Much nearer 300 would tempt me in!
Re: What a dog: Blanketstacker, perhaps the dynamics of oil market pricing may have changed. Fracking has one characteristic which makes it a kind of wild card and this isthat fracking operations can be switched off and then restarted at very short notice and at fairly low cost. Therefore, when the oil price starts to rise again, it's very likely that the fracking operations now being mothballed will be brought back into production very quickly and a lid put on the oil price once again. So the excess supply situation is perhaps now much more difficult for OPEC to remedy. Even more, it's perhaps the case that the "controller" of the oil price is no longer the Saudis but in fact the US frackers through their ability to switch supply on and off at short notice. How the majors will take account of this in their long-term investments (and how that will impact the oil services companies), I don't know but here's a cautionary article from "seeking alpha":[link]
NEW ARTICLE: Winter Portfolio: Setback looks temporary "There's a seasonal trading strategy that typically generates far better returns than if you had stayed invested all year round. Over the past decade, it has outperformed the FTSE 350 index by at least five-fold. And it's incredibly simple, too, ..."[link]
SP So was 420p the floor? Any thoughts?
Re: What a dog: 350 was as low as it got in the bleak days of 2008/9, I recall. Looks like it could test that level again.
Re: What a dog: [link] blues for European oil services sector, again** Slide in crude oil prices continues unabated & sees European oil-related stocks dominate the loser boards across the region once again.** Hunting (Other OTC: HNTIF - news) slumps more than 10 pct & is the worst performer across the Stoxx 600. Stock hits lowest level in more than 5 years.** Afren (LSE: AFR.L - news) , which was bumped off the Stoxx 600 in December last year, loses more than a fifth of its value and is the worst performing UK mid-cap** Afren hit by double-whammy as co slashes its resource estimates for oilfield in Barda Rash in Iraqi Kurdistan. Stock poised for second-biggest one-day drop ever & slumps to near 6-yr low** Seadrill, Wood Group, Saipem (Other OTC: SAPMF - news) , Petrofac down 4-5 pct, round out the top 5 losers across Europe. (RM (LSE: RM.L - news) : [email protected]; RM: [email protected])