Greyinvestor
26 Mar 2015
Thanks all Thanks for the messages of support; I need them!I may be mad but I've plumbed for CNKS. Very lumpy and a Quindell risk, but where else can I find value? I've subscribed for Stockopedia to help, but it hasn't really thrown up anything new.FXPO is a bit tempting but who knows what mother Russia might do.I topped up my LRE, but I think that I paid more than they are worth.I'm praying for a correction. What else can I do?!
theprior
25 Mar 2015
Re: Thanks Grey, I think we all agreed with your assessment at the time. This sudden rise has taken me by surprise too. I held on to my small holding but only because I believe long term it's going to be a sound bet. A lot of my portfolio falls into the risky category so HSTN is a bit of an anchor.Regards, TP
El Kel
25 Mar 2015
Re: Thanks I'm feeling very sick about having sold 75% of my HSTN, just as they went through the roof. A really bad call on my part......---------- ---------- --------Grey - at least you still have a holding...I had sold out completely. Darn.I doubt many saw this sudden rise off the back of those results but I tip my hat to anyone that did.
Greyinvestor
25 Mar 2015
Thanks Thanks for the post, Devon. I'll have a look. Sorry, only just noticed your post.I'm feeling very sick about having sold 75% of my HSTN, just as they went through the roof. A really bad call on my part......
devonplay
17 Mar 2015
OT For Grey Hi Grey,I thought this might appeal to you, perhaps the riskier part of your portfolio - VPC SPECIALTY LENDING INVESTMENTS PLC ORD GBP0.01 VSL.L[link] - Prospectus onlyTrading begins today The Company intends to distribute at least 85 per cent. of its distributable income earned in each financial year by way of dividends.The Company will target a net dividend yield of 8.0 per cent. of the Issue Price per Ordinary Share and a net total return in excess of 10.0 per cent. per annum once the proceeds of the Issue are fully invested.* The Company intends to pay quarterly dividends to Shareholders each financial year.* *Investors should note that the target dividend, including its declaration and payment frequency, is a target only and not a profit forecast. "Speciality lending platforms have flourished since the financial crisis as stiffer regulation bars traditional banks from certain types of lending to both consumers and small businesses. In the US, these loans have swelled from $0.2 billion in 2010 to $7 billion last year, and there’s been a similar boom in the UK over the past two years.It's a market VPC Specialty Lending Investments wants to exploit with substantial new funds. A placing is targeting £200 million of gross proceeds which it will use to invest in things like loans to small businesses, advances against corporate trade receivables and provision of credit facilities, mainly in the US and Europe.And there appears to be a good chance of success here, certainly if the company's track record is anything to go by.VPC's investment manager, Victory Park Capital, has been in the business since 2010 and made more than $1.7 billion of investments across 12 specialty finance platforms. Set up in 2007 by Richard Levy, Brendan Carroll, and Matthew Ray, all former colleagues at Illinois hedge fund Magnetar Capital, it has generated an aggregate gross return on invested capital of over 24 per cent, or 19% net.Only last month, Victory Park provided a £150 million funding line to Assetz Capital, a firm set up by serial entrepreneur Stuart Law to provide non-bank loans to companies and property developers.Big dividends on offerMuch lower overheads and better margins than traditional bricks-and-mortar lenders mean the speciality sector can be far more competitive. For shareholders, the attractions are obvious, too. VPC is targeting a net dividend yield of 8% and a net total return of over 10% per annum, once the proceeds are fully invested, expected to be within six months after the shares begin trading on 17 March.It also intends to pay quarterly dividends to shareholders and distribute at least 85% of its distributable income earned in each financial year."DL
Greyinvestor
13 Mar 2015
Re: Final results My feeling is that HSTN will be fine in the medium term.My best guess that we will see reasonable strength up until XD, but then weakness. Probably sub £1.10, maybe even £1.07 but that is not unreasonable, it's just taking out the double dividend....I think it's still a bit overpriced, but so is everything.
theprior
11 Mar 2015
Re: Final results Having watched the sp for the last few days it is clear that you called it just right GI. At its's high of 120p there was a quite significant buy. Seems with hindsight that was a bit of a gaff.I hope I am now too late to cash in and the sp settles. Hoping the good work continues to generate good profits and healthy dividends !I'm holding for now.Regards, TP
Greyinvestor
10 Mar 2015
Re: Final results Having slept on it, my feeling is that the two executive directors are taking all the out-performance for themselves, leaving a plodding business for the shareholders. I hope that the institutional investors push for a moderation of the LTIP, which runs forever. There are signs that the LTIP is distorting how the company operates.It's a real pity. They've done a great job up until now.My search for alternatives begins.........
El Kel
09 Mar 2015
Re: Final results GreyI think you hit the nail on the head with "I can't see things getting any better than this. The market must get a bit tougher from now on; the real bargains have gone.".Management has worked the portfolio hard and done well. Increased div produces a yield on today's sp of 4.4%.I can't see where the fireworks are going to come from in the foreseeable but that's a reasonable yield if you want to sit back and watch it tick-over.If I was holding, I would cash in a few chips.However, I'm flat and staying on the sidelines for now. I like Hansteen, or rather the management, but there isn't enough potential sp uplift for now.There are plenty of similar yields around that are no riskier and do have potential for capital increase.
Greyinvestor
09 Mar 2015
Final results This is a difficult set of results to interpret. There will be those who call them wonderful, and others who don't. In my view they show a year of good achievement, but also a year in which the management have taken most of the gains.To my mind you have to concentrate on what is happening after the dilutive effects of the LTIP. You also have to remember that a bunch of convertible bonds will soon convert, and add to dilution.So what is the hard core, post LTIP provision, result?NAV plus 12% to 102p - goodEPS +4% to 5p v 4.8p - barely OK3p per share final divi v 2.9p, payable in May - barely OK3p special divi, I suspect that this is to appease shareholders who are annoyed about the size of the LTIP 'hit' - goodNIP per share 7.1p v 6.2p, covering a total dividend of 5p, which is plus 4.2% - OKWhat else do I glean? The company has done well to fend off currency effects. There will be future effects. I suspect that the management is finding currency fluctuations as hard to read as we are.I can't see things getting any better than this. The market must get a bit tougher from now on; the real bargains have gone.I've been a real believer in HSTN up until now. It's such a pity that a blinding job by the management won't translate into blinding results for shareholders. The reality is that lots of other REITs have done better this year for shareholders. Oh well.I'm a bit stuck on how to rate these shares. I guess that I just about rate them a hold at this price.Is HSTN still a good bond substitute? Yes, I think so, providing that interest rates don't rise strongly.It's frustrating. I've sold down my HSTN holding, so I now hold about 25% of what I used to. I'd buy them back at a lower price, but at this one? I'm not sure........I'll be interested to see what others think........
yorkists
27 Feb 2015
Re: Shorters It's still 12% behind British Land over 12 months, though the increase in shorts if late is a concern, wonder if that's using the stock to hedge against currency movements?
Greyinvestor
27 Feb 2015
Shorters I looked extensively at ASHM and concluded that the the shorters were right. The emerging market debt market often plummets when the dollar strengthens, and this will hit profits. But I might well buy in at a lower price.With HSTN, there is a double whammy. If the company does well, the LTIP kicks in and knocks a few pence off the NTA. With regard to currency, the company explains the effect of a fall in the Euro towards the tail end of the annual report. It's not quite as clear as it might be, because you do have a rising fundamental NTA value, but that then collides with a falling Euro value. You also have hedging, but how long will this last?HSTN is all a bit imponderable, but my feeling is that todays valuation has run ahead of the NTA. I still very much like the basic premise of the company, and the yield should be OK.So in summary, I like the company, but I feel that the price has run up too far......Sometimes the shorters get it wrong. They must have been fried in LRE, which I hold quite a number of. But in HSTN they have a large and growing stake.
foolish learner
26 Feb 2015
Re: reduced holding GIDoes the high level of shorts necessarilly mean a price fall or is it more about volitility as ASHM were well shorted but the price has staedily increased, I was thinking about selling ASHM but stuck with the reduced value and that looks to be paying offMy other thoughts on this, if there cash in the bank is £ then they have the buying power, plus if the euro moves to quantative easing will that help short/medium term valuation increases in euro land They are near my sell price but like you its a case of where else to invest or do I sit on my gains until the FTSE falls sub 6700 at which point I think we may see an opportunity
Greyinvestor
26 Feb 2015
reduced holding I've reduced the size of my HSTN holding quite a bit, although I still have a fair few shares. I'm concerned at the sheer size of the short holdings (about 8% of the equity). I think that the shorters are calculating that the NAV and earnings will be hit by the Euro exchange rate moving against the company, and the LTIP kicking in.I'll buy back at a lower price, if I get the chance. I can't find any value in this stock market.......I could do without it while I'm on holiday......In my view a sensible price would be around £1.05 to £1.10
theprior
23 Feb 2015
Increased holding in AIF Now holding 40.6%.Good move.Regards, TP
