II Editor
30 Mar 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Hornby wins reprieve " LSE:HRN:Hornby has had an absolute shocker so far in 2016. A major profits warning last month plunged the share price back to levels not seen since the mid-1990s when the train set and Scalextric maker was shifting all manufacturing to China. ..."[link]
WDC1109
01 Mar 2016
The Ovaltine Index What are Hornby's chances of remaining on the 'Ovaltine Index'? See Kate Burgess' article in yesterday's Small Talk ([link]
TX2
16 Feb 2016
Re: No1 toy takeover target. Wish you well barno99 and I hope the company survives in its present form for all concerned;I accept as a short term trading prospect the share price may have "legs",hopefully upwards, but finding new finance is going to be difficult.
Another Jacko
15 Feb 2016
Re: No1 toy takeover target. Personally I think the brands have value but the shares don't. I think £8m may be an underestimation of the amount of cash they need to turn this around given that they are losing £6m a year and a turnaround does not appear imminent. I can't imagine anyone who stumped up for the last rights issue doing so again.With the amount of cash they need to raise to see them through to profitability, given the uncertainty that this can even be achieved and the limited upside if it does occur anyone interested in owning the business might as well wait until the banks pull the plug and buy it off the administrator and get 100% of the business rather just a significant stake for the same price.
barno99
15 Feb 2016
Re: No1 toy takeover target. Not all doom and gloom. And with the right person in charge, cost cutting etc this will turn around or be bought out very soon. Should go up and down like a yoyo, but 50p is a fair target for me.This article from a very recent article ..Analyst's said that Hornby was struggling to be relevant in the modern toy industry, but that it could still have a future. Robert Haigh at Brand Finance, which monitors the health of leading consumer brands, said: “The toy industry has experienced profound change over the last three decades, with digital media and video games being the most transformative force. Interestingly, we had seen sales of ‘traditional’ and construction toys strengthen recently, and Hornby enjoyed fairly good sales in the runup to Christmas.“Its long-term prospects are by no means bleak, and there is enduring demand for the types of toys it creates. However, in order to create sustainable brand value growth and increase revenues, it will have to focus attention both on marketing investment and a broadening of its range.”
TX2
15 Feb 2016
Re: No1 toy takeover target. In general Hornby does not make toys;it used to half a century ago but it now makes models for the chaps who bought their toys in the 50's,60's & 70's!Problem is they are dying out......or at best as BOWOOD pointed out a few months ago are able to buy lots of items at knock down prices on ebay etc.Last year Hornby's main shareholders pumped nearly £16m in the company;to survive perhaps on a slimmed down basis it may need another £8m or so,who knows if it will be viable.Will the majority shareholders,who in general are investing other peoples money put up the cash after the loss of the last £16m plus most of their initial investment,at what price if they do?The brands probably have a value but who to in cash terms?We have seen problems at another "yesterdays" iconic brand Stanley Gibbons recently;in publishing Haynes seem to be in difficulties.Today most people struggle to change a bike tube......Far from certain that there is any value left here;probably best to wait and see.
barno99
15 Feb 2016
No1 toy takeover target. With the crazy drop in the share price,Hornby must well and truly be in the firing line for a once in a lifetime;target for a takeover.Easy buy at this level, the rebound has started and should continue apace..
spankaroo
13 Feb 2016
Re: Over 75% owned by institutions The key to its survival is Phoenix who own 29.5% of the equity The chairman of Hornby is also high up in Phoenix. Phoenix will not want a discounted placing for obvious reasons. My guess, it together with other major shareholders or go alone and issue a loan note along side Barclays wavering some covenant conditions BUT will demand management take various actions, which could mean selling off part or all of the business and reducing stock and debtors and refocusing the business on its core strengths - its trying to do everything, but doing it badly. In the right hands those brand names could reap vast rewards, its just got to start thinking out the box as Lego did. Time will tell
Bill1703
13 Feb 2016
Re: Over 75% owned by institutions "Looks like the bears are pushing down the price against very little liquidity. Could see a major correction if Barclays play ball. Can't see why it would be in major holders interest to do a deeply discounted placing IMHO. Bear squeeze coming uo?"The bank might very well play ball, but even then, it is very hard to put a value on the equity here - more so than before, and it has been somewhat opaque for years.Looks like some kind of significant dilution - via rescue rights issue, via debt for equity conversion, or whatever - is the best that current holders can hope for. In which case, experience suggests 20-25p is still in deluded territory - possibly significantly. If there is any bear squeeze or recovery otherwise on any positive near term newsflow, might be a very good time to take it and run.
Bill1703
13 Feb 2016
Re: Up again today! As per earlier posts - albeit quite a while ago - I never thought this was worth more than 40-45p. Turns out I was 100% too optimistic?Has defied gravity - and reality - for far too long, propped up by a fanatical (rather than financially astute) shareholder base, as far as I can see.
MoleMan99
12 Feb 2016
Re: Over 75% owned by institutions Brands plus stock plus the Margate building, minus the bank debt leaves about half a pence per share for shareholders.Holders won't be interested in a realistic cash buy price. They are therefore wedded to carrying on regardless. Barclays will give them space I am sure, but it will only be space to finish the job properly.Will take another year to play out I reckon.
spankaroo
11 Feb 2016
Re: Over 75% owned by institutions Ruffer took their stock yesterday and it looks like it sold some more today - so either Ruffer is taking some or all or someone else. Was a historic holder and find the situation interesting. Personally I think Barclays will continue to support it, with conditions ie sell off parts of the biz and reduce stock levels to generate cash or find a cash buyer for the group in an orderly manner
MoleMan99
11 Feb 2016
Re: Over 75% owned by institutions Shady New Pistoia Income Limited seem to be giving up now. To reduce their holding in this market would suggest they are giving up and could become a big seller and keep the price down. With 23% to get rid of it could go on for some time.
spankaroo
11 Feb 2016
Over 75% owned by institutions See Ruffer added yesterday and now holds 11% and still the price goes down. Looks like the bears are pushing down the price against very little liquidity. Could see a major correction if Barclays play ball. Can't see why it would be in major holders interest to do a deeply discounted placing IMHO. Bear squeeze coming uo?
spankaroo
10 Feb 2016
Now capped at £18m, net tang assets £27m Who would have thought a once great name could be reduced to this. Didn't they pay £8m for Corgi back in 2008? The management have f**c*ed up and Phoenix (29% holder) and other are not going sit back and watch this car wreck. Would be surprised it it starts selling off some of its brand names to bring down debt (Corgi and Airfix ) and half's the price of its stock to move inventory to get cash flowing through the business again. And hire a decent FD.Not a holder, but would be sad to see an iconic name treated so badly. Can be saved, with fab brand names, which my kids still love, just run by mu**ets. If Lego can do it. Re base and get back to core strengths
