Mouthy Southy
07 Jan 2017
Time for an update It's been a few months since anyone has shared their thoughts on Hornby.I see that Airfix have announced new models for 2017, and these have been very well received. Does anyone else believe it's too early to back the new team in their endeavours to turn this company around ?Regards
JR Web
27 Oct 2016
Re: Some hope Horby have a problem meeting demand, for example a new model was lauched amongst much fanfare, but when people went onto their website to purchase said model it was out of stock! needless to say it prompted many a rant on facebook by disgrunteld customers. This happens far to ofton with Hornby releases either delays of new lauches or stock availabilty. until it sorts out these basic problems they are not worth investing in.
MoleMan99
06 Oct 2016
Re: Some hope Well the wave has already broken on the shore and is sliding back into the ocean.I suppose the reality is with the new lower pound, HRN are going to find it hard to make profits. I am sure the brand and company will keep going and find a way to pay salaries, but there is unlikely to be much in it for shareholders not on the payroll.Back to being grumpy.
MoleMan99
04 Oct 2016
Some hope Retailers say the new guy has been out smoozing and Hornby have recently sent independents new terms hoping to win back their support. The jury seems to be out if the new terms will work, but at least they are trying.This is good, as is his recent share purchase, but the drags are a price rise will come on the back of the persistently low Sterling, and the rises won't cover the full whack of sterling down to 1.275, so more losses to absorb.I find myself in an odd position. I still feel Hornby are in a very sticky position financially, but if October is good for shares, Hornby will probably get whisked upwards with Market optimism.I may ride the wave this time.
MoleMan99
06 Jul 2016
Re: Worth a punt? £1/$1.30. I would not touch them unless Hornby confirmed how many dollars they have hedged and at what price.If they have non hedged and the rate stays down here, they either swallow millions in loses or put up prices and watch sales fall.Some prices probably can't be changed like all those trainsets and Scalextric in Argos probably under agreed contracts. The lions share of their turnover is low margin, and the exchange rate has wiped out the margin.Without the hedging info there is a danger the shares could open below the offer price post placing. The offer will be taken up mostly by Phoenix because they have to. This co will be majority owned by one person post placing. Never healthy.Retailer told me the whole company is on consultation.They did this a few years back, and the wrong people left. It will happen again as good people find it easier to move on from what must be a depressing environment down in Sandwich.
5haggy
02 Jul 2016
Worth a punt? OK, so the current 31p sell price for the quoted shares is well above the Open Offer price of 27p.Is this worth a punt on the offer shares for an instant profit when the offer shares are admitted?
TX2
29 Jun 2016
Re: Open offer too high? LOL!Have you read the share offer prospectus.........?The share offer is underwritten.this I mean that Phoenix in particular,but also four other major shareholders have agreed to take up the shares,even if other shareholders do not take up their allocation and the open offer element to shareholders generally is only a small part of the total share offer in any case.Time will tell if Phoenix and others are correct in putting up this money.The share price could well go down in the short term this will not be of particular concern to them.Phoenix (and I assume the others) are hoping to sell on the business in three,four years time or whenever for rather more than they have invested.That is how they work......
MoleMan99
29 Jun 2016
Open offer too high? Before Brexit they may of got away with convincing some that 27p was a good price, but now with the lower sterling many more millions will of been added to losses (once hedged dollars run out if they have any), so 27p seems an extremely ambitious valuation.Stay away I would. I would go as far as to say, sell out here. Post placing, the shares will probably sink and this is the last time you'll see a price above 27p as it gyrates it's way to the bank finally calling quits.Basically I am seeing the end for Hornby PLC now.
TX2
23 Jun 2016
Re: Reliant on Fundraising You are looking too much at past poor management.Post placing Phoenix Asset Management Partners will have nearly 40% of the shares.They have a very good record over the last 20 years;particularly in "value" investment.Nothing is certain of course but they will have done a lot of work here........
toyman194
23 Jun 2016
Re: Reliant on Fundraising OMG- Are you serious? You do know that the best way to make a small fortune, is to start with a large one
Bill1703
22 Jun 2016
Re: Reliant on Fundraising "I think at the present price (which is more or less my average buying price) the shares are decent value."Difficult to see any value here IMHO. To justify even the current 30p or so, you have to see a way back to at least 2-3p of EPS in reasonable order, we haven't been there or anywhere near for years, and difficult to see it anytime soon - particularly with the substantial increase in equity with two shareholder bail-ins in short order. And that's even if the market manages to stabilise what has been a distinctly moribund trend.HRN has always been a seriously overvalued stock on any basis I can see - I have consistently struggled to get to even 50% of the prevailing SP as any reasonable "fair value", at various times over quite a few years now. Courtesy of a loyal and sticky shareholder base, it is clear - but for how long? Very difficult to value now of course, but the picture remains pretty consistent to me - probably worth less than 15p as things stand. And very possibly nothing - I fear the current SP could prove a pretty decent exit point rather than entry, and perhaps sooner rather than later.
TX2
22 Jun 2016
Re: Reliant on Fundraising Interestingly the £8m being raised is exactly the same figure that I put in my Feb 15th post that I reckoned Hornby needed.Virtually the whole sum has already been agreed by the largest shareholder so will happen subject to majority agreement by shareholders.I will be taking up my allocation & possibly a few more.I think at the present price (which is more or less my average buying price) the shares are decent value.I think this turnaround plan seems credible & the company will be in good shape financially.
MoleMan99
22 Jun 2016
Re: Reliant on Fundraising The last £15m raised lasted 6 months....
II Editor
22 Jun 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Hornby needs £8m to fund recovery " Three profit warnings in five months, a failed turnaround and a chief executive forced out the door after less than two years: hardly a recipe for success. Of course, LSE:HRN:Hornby's share price has suffered as a result of its ongoing car ..."[link]
Another Jacko
22 Jun 2016
Reliant on Fundraising So if the fundraising isn't a success then the company is toast. These look substantially overvalued to me at the current price, the market isn't pricing in the very real risk of them going broke and appears to be forecasting a successful turnaround which may never materialise.Not for me.
