Fred Prior
17 Nov 2016
Here we go again low to no volume and drip drip drip goes the share price.1500p purchase still a possibility here guys.Do your thang Gayfair,boys, keep flipping them out to one another, just be very careful that there is not DD being done on they s company regarding a buyout, now that would be fun wouldn't it.....
Ravinell
16 Nov 2016
Have you bought or sold? Fred is clearly in.
Openwoe
15 Nov 2016
After hours trading Lots of big buys after the market closed today, whilst the price continued to fall. Not quite sure how that works out, but will be interesting to see if it pushes up again in early trading tomorrow. Looks like now is the time to get in.
paul1945
15 Nov 2016
Re: RSI 98% Rec. by Morgan Stanley
Fred Prior
15 Nov 2016
Here we go 6.7% up keep closing them shorts girls...
Fred Prior
15 Nov 2016
RSI 98% showing overbought conditions, my guess is the girls are now buying back in a frenzy and need help surprising the SP whilst they do, going to interesting as in theory, this should blow back to where it was in early October.Lets see.
Hardboy
12 Nov 2016
Re: Still Falling Good point Sapito, But if it is 12% increase in profits in $; and the $ is up almost 20% v the £; one would hope UK investors should still see an increase in their effective EPS.
sapito
11 Nov 2016
Re: Still Falling Thanks, Hardboy. I think the problem is the increased no of shares amongst which the profit is shared. 12% growth in operating profit sounds impressive, but following the big US acquisition the no of shares in issue has increased from c200m to 240m, ie a 20% increase. So broadly speaking profit needs to increase by the same sort of % just to stand still (in EPS terms).
Hardboy
11 Nov 2016
Re: Still Falling Sapito, "with no guidance on profit"That's not quite true, but they don't make it simple. I've just gleaned the facts, so now I'll do the calculation and see what it comes out like.Injectables - it said "we now expect core operating margin to be around 39%, up from our previous guidance of around 38%." It also said revenue growth would be mid to high single digits. Last year's Injectable revenue was $710m, so if he estimate a 7% rise & 39% margin we'd get an operating profit of $296mGenerics - it said "We continue to expect full year core operating profit to be in the range of $30 to $40 million"Branded - It said "our focus on strategic products and operating efficiencies is expected to deliver a significant improvement in core operating margin" It also said it expected growth of mid single digit sales at constant Forex. branded revenue last year was $570m & their operating margin was 20.7%. So if we assume a growth of 5% for revenue, at constant currency, but the Egyptian devaluation will reduce this in $, so let us assume it stays the same. If we take "a significant improvement in operating margin" to be 10%, the margin would be around 23%, so operating profit will be $131mSo making some assumptions and erring, hopefully, on the more cautious side, adding the 3 figures, we should see a full year operating profit of around $460m. Last year's was $409m.Having just gone through that exercise, my conclusion is, What's the problem? - 12% increase in profits in $ terms. This share price should be flying in £ terms!
lovelove
11 Nov 2016
the effect of low oil price Hikma sells a great deal in the Arab world. infact the name means healig. with the collapse of oil price, the sauidis are cutting on genferous healthcare offeres. the price drop seems reasonable and it has brought down the P/E to reasonabe range.I expect to continue at the these levels for sometime now. the future depends on which way the oil price goes?
sapito
11 Nov 2016
Re: Still Falling What was badly needed was a reassuring update. However, although it appeared to start on the right note, by highlighting a 35% increase in turnover, this is almost all down to acquisitions, hence meaningless; and from that point, the update became a "downdate", and with no guidance on profit, which explains the continuing downward movement in the share price. Also, we're no wiser on the relevance or otherwise of the DoJ investigation. So I can't really see a marked recovery in the share price happening for many months.
Ravinell
11 Nov 2016
Re: Still Falling We live in strange times. This is beginning to look like a dead cat bounce, but there are too many external factors to be sure. Declared short positions in Hikma have been running around the 2% mark, nothing too sinister there. As of yesterday they are 16.85% some of the big boys have jumped in, but they are shorting all sorts of stocks and I wouldn't read too much into this. They will likely be unwound over the next few days or weeks. The thin trade and lack of appetite for this stock at the moment leaves it at the whim of the MM. Expect a bumpy ride. Caveat emptor.
Fred Prior
11 Nov 2016
Re: Still Falling yes, I am confident I will get my sub 1500p top up, at this rate it could slide to 1200p.Powder is very very dry, as had a huge windfall from options position in Valeant with plus 500 that I cashed in yesterday.A very happy Fred.Regards
Hardboy
11 Nov 2016
Still Falling Maybe Fred will get is 1500 after all. The fall in the last 2 days can be attributed to the recent update; but that does not explain the huge drop over the preceding months. Fred's explanation of Spread Betting Companies & hedge Funds heavily shorting the stock does explain it; but aren't short trades normally over short periods? And logic would suggest they would close their positions before a major scheduled announcement. If this is what is driving the price down, it seems not to have been the case. Looking at the positives from yesterday's announcement, the company is still growing sales at an impressive rate (albeit some via acquisitions) and if they've got their strategy right this should progress into improved profits down the line. In the meantime the price has dropped so far that fundamental measures of PE & PB are making it look incredibly cheap - which is unusual for a growth share. And I never bought expecting a good yield, but that's approaching 2% on historic measures, which is not too bad.Surely the down trend has got to break soon; and trading revert to more normal conditions. (Under which I'd rate this a buy; but currently I just do not know.) Assuming Fred's tales are true (& I've no reason to doubt him) then we need the price manipulation story to break soon.
Hardboy
10 Nov 2016
Re: Health care up 3.5% "most Pharmas showing green today..........except, you guessed it...Hikma LOL"The sector is up because the Trump effect sees it as benefiting from his tenure. Hikma released a disappointing update today. So today's movements are perfectly understandable under normal conditions. Just to illustrate some of the negative comments: - "Generics: -Since August, it has been more challenging than initially expected. We expect this to continue through the remainder of 2016. Revenue from West-Ward Columbus is ramping up more slowly than originally anticipated.Branded - growth has been slightly lower than our expectations. The Branded results will be impacted by currency headwinds, which have become more challenging following the recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound."These are not comments to drive the share price higher.
