David Global
19 Nov 2017
Re: Revised valuation? £250 per share ior close to it s perfectly achievable in my opinionFast forward 9 years to 2026Revs (based on a number of Analysts forecasts) = $1046mEBITDA $324m*P/S 22 *EV/EBITDA 70 *P/E 79*Net margin 20% *(typical for sector)Blended mcap $20.8bn = price per share = £238 per share (was £250 prior to recent new share issue)That is my very conservative estimate. I look at Incyte, Vertex, Genmab and Jiangsu Hengrui for comparisons, although the latter is really China focused, where we will be more global in nature
David Global
19 Nov 2017
Deal It is my opinion that the recent fundraise in excess of $300m is much larger than is needed for the current pipeline development , especially given the Commercial platform cash generation, further property compensation from the Shanghai govt coming shortly and milestone payments.I am speculating, but we could be about to have some kind transaction such as the recent Celgene-Beigene one or maybe we are planning to buy back further drug rights or a bigger share of the IP like we did with Astra last year.All the indicators including Brokers taking all the excess over-allotment suggest something is on the cards
David Global
19 Nov 2017
Re: Directors dealing info current major holders[link] of other info on Directors deals in the website and in the reports
sporty investor
18 Nov 2017
Re: After market hour deals today Thanks Bernie for taking time from your “sunny break “ to explain.Most of those 65k shares were traded ( after market trading hours) at prices of £52.80-53.00 The best sell price quote I got during market hours was £ 52.62 and it was 52.40 by the end of the day. The nasdaq ads share prices also dropped marginally, by few cents. Hence, I assumed those trades could be ‘buys’. But, my assumption could be wrong!
Boring Bernie
18 Nov 2017
Re: After market hour deals today SportyWhen you look at a lot of the trades which appeared yesterday, a lot of them look to be delayed, so you'd need to look back to the price at the transaction time to decide if they were buys. I just tried to work it out, but couldn't see the wood for the trees.The sp has been going up since the share issue though, so pressure is overwhelmingly positive. It's possible that there'll be profit taking from people though, but you really might as well wait till next week rather than get too hung up with on it.BB - enjoying the sun in far away places while also enjoying the sp rise !
sporty investor
17 Nov 2017
After market hour deals today Large number of deals, nearly 65k shares, traded after stock market hours. Looking at the prices, all appear to be buys. What’s happening??
sporty investor
17 Nov 2017
Re: Revised valuation? Not sure if the last post is in relation to Hutchison China MediTech shares. The sp has risen 2.3% from yesterday’s peaks.Just seen two very large trades going through in the last few minutes. £53 a share, most likely buys. 5000+4800 shares. Appears ‘Some People’ have got a clue about the real valuation of this monster!
hopetown
17 Nov 2017
Re: Revised valuation? Currently down 20% on Satoshipay which I hold through BLU
Boring Bernie
17 Nov 2017
Re: Revised valuation? DJingleBitcoin looks like a bubble. Assuming it is a bubble, then the trick is to pick a valuation where it still seems to have some legs, and sell before the bubble bursts. As to what that valuation is, I have absolutely no idea, but I won't be putting any money in it so I'm not thinking too hard about it. Obviously there's a chance that Bitcoin really could change the world and it's not a bubble, but I think that's unlikely.I know nothing about blockchain.Good luck with whatever you do, and remember it never hurts to crystallise a profit ( or a loss for that matter )
sporty investor
17 Nov 2017
Directors dealing info Now a days, I am unable to find information about directors’ share dealings and holdings. Barclays stockbrokers have removed this information link from their online site. Tried online investor chronicle without any success. Any suggestions?
DJingle
17 Nov 2017
Re: Revised valuation? I too bought in many years ago around the £3 mark. I have added a little over the years. But I have never sold.Personally, I am pleased that this is a very quiet, the rubbish that is spouted on other boards of shares I own is unbelievable! The very reason I seldom post.OFF TOPIC I have just entered into the bitcoin and blockchain arena - it's very interesting, very high risk too. But there is the potential to make some very serious money. Interested in others views? DYOR.
Boring Bernie
17 Nov 2017
Re: Revised valuation? I don't think anything has changed in the fundamentals this year. The company's delivered on what was expected, but, barring the fund raising, hasn't really come up with any surprises ( good or bad ). All that's changed is that sentiment amongst investors is much more positive.I'm not going to try and guess at the sp in the short term. Eventually we'll be valued on a combination of the anticipated bottom line from our pipeline and the time it's expected to take to get to that level of profitability. I do think we're currently a tad overvalued, but not enough to make me think we're in an investment bubble, so, while sentiment is with us, I'm happy enough with that and will probably continue to take profits over the next two or three years. After all, that's why I invested in the first place !
Boring Bernie
17 Nov 2017
Re: £50 Well, this is making my decision to reduce my holding at ~£40 look a tad silly.Mind you, if it gets up to £60 I might reduce a bit more ... though greed will doubtless my sat on my shoulder whispering in my ear !
Sharpedge7
17 Nov 2017
Re: Revised valuation? well whilst this is probably my best share ever - bought in tranches starting at 3.320 I took big profits as it multi-bagged..... if only I hadn't!!! Suspect there may be a few like me. I have been running just profits (still my biggest holding though) for a few years but bought again on recent drop and plan to continue to do so. Am happy with it? Oh yes but tinged with a bit of greedy "if only" hindsightitis. Although it's certainly helped me recover from some of my dog investments....Will I sell? Can't think why I would now in next few years. Going to see where this one ends up.
Ramptastic
16 Nov 2017
Re: Revised valuation? We are very low key here on III.Jim
