sporty investor
06 Oct 2017
China factor Out of curiosity;How many Chinese pharmaceutical companies of this magnitude are working on research and development of newer therapies? Does the Chinese government encourage such research based therapeutic innovations in any way? Has Chi- med got any publicity in the Chinese financial news/ investment related journals? Has chi-med got any listings either at Chinese or Hong Kong stock exchanges? Thanks for any information.
sporty investor
06 Oct 2017
Re: Hold or Sell? Wise words Maru.I fully agree with your argument.I also like Bernie's methodology with selling. Just noticed US shares are trading at $29.54 a piece.
Maru118
06 Oct 2017
Re: Hold or Sell? Thanks Sporty Investor. I think one of the most important concepts in investing, is to preserve capital above all else, as once it's gone, it's hard to get back. I asked my self if I'd rather gamble, or take a free ride. I decided to err on the side of caution. This could well rise, but fundamentally, it wouldn't be justified. Future earnings are simply that; future earnings. Good luck all.
Boring Bernie
06 Oct 2017
Re: Hold or Sell? I first bought in here just over five years ago, so those shares have multiplied ~ten times. ( I think Sally's been in longer than that )i've shuffled the pack a bit up and down since then ( though, from memory, I think I've left my holding alone since mid-2014 ), so Chi-med is quite a substantial % of my, admitted meagre, portfolio, which means I'm well overweight in it, so will likely be looking to reduce a bit at some time.The other thing I'm bearing in mind, is the path to future earnings. Davey kindly provided a link to [link] the other day,and they're forecasting profits ( EBITDA ) of 71 and 154 million USD in YE 2020 and 2021 respectively. I'd say, they're a good a guess as I've seen anywhere.So, in four years, they're expecting earnings to be doubling to 154 million USD. If you go with a PE of ~50, that gives a future value of the company of 7.7 billion USD, or just under 6 billion sterling.At a sp of ~£45, our current market cap is ~2.7 Billion, which basically means that you might expect the sp to rise by roughly 20% per annum to get to 6 Billion. Given the nature of the business, and the risks of something either not working, or taking longer than anticipated, that's actually quite a tight discount rate.On the other hand, interest in the company seems to have "ramped" up in the States, so buying pressure may well continue. Also, my numbers here may well be conservative.Personally though, if the sp goes above £50 in the next six months, then I'll be reducing.If it gets above £60 in the next six months, then I'd reduce again.The above sp targets assume no unexpected good news turns up in that timescale. If we get the expected NDA approval this year, then greed may well be sitting on my shoulder whispering sweet nothings to me.
sporty investor
06 Oct 2017
Re: Hold or Sell? Journey so far has been fantastic! Not sure how long the anticipation will last.
Ramptastic
06 Oct 2017
Re: Hold or Sell? Its often better to travel than arrive.I've sold a few. Only a few mind.J
sporty investor
05 Oct 2017
Hold or Sell? Maru, congratulations on your profit making. To sell or to hold? It's every private investor's dilemma in such situations. If we look at the 'buys', some of those being mega massive, during the last few weeks, it begs to ask who are buying in such big numbers and why? We might get some idea if we look at the numbers provided by DG in his posts. I will hold onto my HCM shares for now. Some time ago, one of our regular posters (was that you, Bernie?) described HCM as a MONSTER whose potential could not be measured easily. I think, it still holds good Even at the present Share price.'Do your own research. No recommendation intended'
Maru118
05 Oct 2017
Re: DG Thank you for elaborating on that for me, I thought that would probably be the case. I guess the only issues that could arise, would be if your broker does not do international trading. You would be forced to sell, or transfer them to another broker. Selling isn't a problem if you're break even or above, you can simply repurchase the shares after selling them if you so wish. If you're down, that's another story.On a side note, I sold 50% of my holdings just now for 100% profit and am now free riding in this share. The future will determine whether this was a good idea, but we live in the present and for me, this seems like a good idea in the here and now. If the SP trails off, I will have no issue using my profit to buy back in and accumulate a larger holding. Alternatively, if the price rises, I still have enough invested to benefit significantly from the longer term. Good day to all HCM holders.
sporty investor
04 Oct 2017
Re: DG Maru, I was with Barclays stock brokers at that time. It was not a cumbersome process, at all. One UK company in which I had stock was taken over by a US company and hence, I was given shares in the US company. Another company " migrated" to USA. I had to open an international trading account with Barclays stock brokers. It was very easy . (Recently, Barclays stopped trading in international stocks), There was no hefty fee. There was no force at anytime. Advance notices were issued,. If I remember well with option to sell the UK shares. The only issue is filing a W8- BEN form (online) to avoid double taxation. Again this doesn't take more than 5 minu
Maru118
04 Oct 2017
Re: DG What is the procedure for moving shares to an alternative foreign market? One assumes that if a company moves from AIM to MAIN (domestic) your shares are simply moved with it. How does this differ if it de-lists and lists again on a foreign market. Are your shares automatically and forcibly sold? Are they transferred, and how would this work in regards to fees, especially since some brokers charge premiums for foreign stocks, or don't even allow you to purchase them at all.
sporty investor
04 Oct 2017
Re: DG Thanks Bernie.As DG had mentioned previously, that he had bought ADRs, I directed my query to him. Couple of shares in my portfolio, which were previously listed on LSE, have stopped trading in the U.K. and migrated to NYSE and Nasdaq. I am not speculating such move with HCM, but who knows? Thought, I should get educated while enjoying chi- med ride!Thanks again.
Ramptastic
04 Oct 2017
Re: Slater Growth Fund Holding They do say "back your winners"J
Saigon Sally
04 Oct 2017
Re: Slater Growth Fund Holding You could not prise my share certs from my sweaty palms but I am not topping up as my 'portfolio' is already top heavy with HCM. Nine times more so than Mark Slater's Growth Fund!Perhaps I should rename myself HCM
Boring Bernie
04 Oct 2017
Re: DG SportyI ain't DG, and I ain't an expert either so it's best to check with someone who really knows, but my understanding is :-1. The only CGT you'll be liable for when selling US ADR's is what you'll owe the UK govt, so you just declare it in the normal way. You won't owe the US treasury a cent.2. The W8-BEN form you'll have filled out is purely to ensure you don't pay withholding tax on divis twice. My "wet finger in the air" estimate is that we're at least three or four years away from paying a divi, so, if I was holding ADR's ( and I'm not ), then I wouldn't worry about it
Ramptastic
04 Oct 2017
No News No news guys, but I'm wondering what any more informed investors than I are expecting?Cheers,Jim
