David Global
18 Oct 2017
London Eveniong Standard Lead article in today's London Evening standard[link] Hilton has written a few lead articles on the Company in the last 3 or 4 years and is a big fan. He concludes by saying ""It is a truly remarkable story for a small company £ which is probably why it might not be a small company much longer"I continue to Buy
Boring Bernie
18 Oct 2017
Re: Slater Growth Fund Holding September's data shows HCM at 10.33% of his growth fund.[link] it was roughly 10.5% at the end of August, and HCM was his biggest contributor in September, I'd say it was fairly safe to assume that he trimmed his position a bit in Septemb
David Global
18 Oct 2017
Re: Savolitinib and Tagrisso when it was what? between 1200 and 2000p? I notice Canaccord, Stifel and Panmure keep upgrading their price targets as the Company smashes them!
Maru118
17 Oct 2017
Re: Savolitinib and Tagrisso Bestinvest haven't updated Broker forecasts since 2015!
David Global
17 Oct 2017
Savolitinib and Tagrisso Judging on the data and the reaction at the WCLC (check out #'WCLC2017 on Twitter) we are probably getting close to BT designation.Canaccord have issued a new PT today of $38.00 for the ADR'sPanmure have issued a new PT today of 5200p for London shares
David Global
09 Oct 2017
CFDA Refoms announced today [link] have just made major reforms, which include faster approval process for Chinese devloped drugs as well as foreign drugs with existing trial dataThis is excellent news, especially as we have a drug currently waiting appr
David Global
09 Oct 2017
Re: China factor AIM IPO 2006NASDAQ IPO 2016
David Global
09 Oct 2017
Re: CEO's presentation at RSM Press ReleaseFor your interest, Christian Hogg, Chief Executive Officer of Chi-Med, spoke at the 15th Medical Innovations Summit of the Royal Society of Medicine last month. A video of his presentation has now been posted to the RSM website and can be viewed here: hxxps://videos.rsm.ac.uk/video/chi-med-global-development-for-oncology-and-immunological-therapy.A copy of the slides he presented can be downloaded from the Chi-Med website at hxxp://www.chi-med.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/pre170916-rsm.pdf.clearly, change hxxp to http in the above links!
sporty investor
09 Oct 2017
CEO's presentation at RSM I get email news updates from Chi-Med. Anyone can register on company's website to receive such updates. An email received this morning has a link to the video presentation by Mr Hogg, Chi-Med's CEO, at the Royal Society of Medicine's Medical innovations summit held last month. I think the presentation is excellent. Answers many of my own queries. I am unable to copy the link. If anyone is interested, Google Royal society of medicine.The video is under e-recouces.
Saigon Sally
09 Oct 2017
Re: China factor David,You omitted a digit after the 1, it is either a 0 or a 1..."Ch-Med have been listed in Londion for 1 years..."SS first bought in 2010 and has topped up twice since but obviously in hindsight wish it had been more.
David Global
09 Oct 2017
Tragrisso BT Designation [link] gets Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA in 1st line NSCLCThis is VERY important news for us, as Savolitinib is trialed for use as a combination therapy with Tagrisso in 2nd and 3rd line.This must surely now assist in us and Astra getting BT designation for Savolitinib in this setting........
David Global
08 Oct 2017
Re: China factor One more thing, the Chinese Govts' 5 year plan includes 10 instrustries that they are laser focused on. These include robotics, cloud computing and importalant Biotech, and by that they mean innovative Biotech, not the ususal Chinese generics and biosimilars.There are only a handful of true innovators in the sector, Jiangsu Hengrui, Betta Pharma and Chi-Med being leaders in the field.This will be massive - this will have the mcap of INCYTE in the decade IMO
David Global
08 Oct 2017
Valuation I've been invested for 10 years, and have around 8 - 10 years to go before exiting or beginning to divest, meanwhile I continue to buy. U.S. Analysts are forecasting the following, based on a well defined late stage pipeline and they have been accurate so far.... 2017 $236m revs, -$60m EBITDA 2018 $271m revs, -$31m EBITDA 2019 $308m revs, -$17m EBITDA 2020 $474m revs, $71m EBITDA 2021 $683m revs, $154m EBITDAAnd some of that revenue is nett income straight to the bottom line (Frquintinib royalties on PRCC alone circa $35m pa for example)The average P/S in this sector is currently around 16The average P/EBITDA in this sector is currently around 86Using those metrics you get to the following for FY2021 2021 @ 16 P/S = $10,928m 2021 @ 86 P/EBITDA = $13,244m Blended mcap = $12,086m = 3.9 x todays mcapAbove revenue numbers do not take into account on-off potential licensing deals so could be much higherAnd the U.S. market values these types of Companies quite fairly most of the time.For anyone who wants to see some competitors that are similar to Chi-Med, but 2 or 3 years ahead in the development cycle look at GENMAB, EXELIXIS and TESARO to see how rapidly these companies can grow. KITE Pharma is aLso a great example.The 2200% growth over the last 10 years will seem insignificant compared to the next 10 years in my opinion. The Company's stated objective is to become a global Biopharamceutical Company based in China.So far they have been emticulous in the execution of their strategy.With significant piepline data due, I continue to buy. First ever drug currently submitted and waiting approval with many many more to follow
David Global
08 Oct 2017
Re: China factor Mots (Betta Pharma, Jiangsu Hengrui are two notable exceptions) are producing biosimilars. Chi-Med and others do receive research grants ($5m in FY 2016 for example). Ch-Med have been listed in Londion for 1 years and on NASDAQ for 18 months.There are loads of articles - best approach is to look at the Co website but here are a few to whet your appetiteCo Webcast[link] forget the latest Analyst Research:-[link]
Maru118
07 Oct 2017
Re: China factor Thank you SI. I'm afraid I can't answer your first few questions, as I simply don't know, but I would say that CHI-MED has the backing of Li Ka-Shing, who is influential with the Government.His influence is not to be underestimated. So while the Government may or may not be encouraging research, I would say that CHI MED is certainly in a favourable position with them. And in regards to your last question, they are listed on AIM and NASDAQ only. Their recent RNS confirming total share capital ( I believe we have around 60ml shares total) is split across the two markets. They would be required to list the other exchanges they are traded on in this RNS, and these are the only two they have. In fact I went and found the RNS because I have nothing better to do on a rainy Saturday"London: Friday, September 29, 2017: For information purposes, Hutchison China MediTech Limited ("Chi-Med"
(AIM/Nasdaq: HCM) hereby notifies the market that as at September 29, 2017, the issued share capital of Chi-Med consisted of 60,750,132 ordinary shares of US$1.00 each, with each share carrying one right to vote and with no shares held in treasury. The above figure of 60,750,132 may be used by shareholders as the denominator for the calculations by which they could determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, Chi-Med under the Financial Conduct Authority's Disclosure Rules and Transparency Rules. For illustrative purposes only, the 60,750,132 ordinary shares would be equivalent to 60,750,132 CREST depositary interests (each equating to one ordinary share) which are traded on AIM or, if the CREST depositary interests were converted in their entirety, equivalent to 121,500,264 American depositary shares (each equating to one-half of one ordinary share) which are traded on Nasdaq."
