dave297
06 Oct 2016
Re: More expansion for GVC Our successful integration of Bwin & continued striping growth & profitability should ensure the return of a decent dividend in 2017 resulting in a very decent yield based on our current SP & fir those of us with a much lower average cost the prospective yield is likely to be exceptional.
Joatmon
06 Oct 2016
More expansion for GVC 6 October 2016GVC’s casino offering expands with Realistic dealTom LewisIndustry provider GVC has moved to expand its gaming content, penning a multi-year agreement with Realistic Games.Realisitic will provide GVC with nigh on 40 slot and table games, to be rolled out across both online and mobile initially for the bwin, PartyCasino and PartyPoker sites.GVC’s B2B partner sites will also have the titles made available to them.Liron Snir, Chief Product Officer for GVC, said: “Today’s announcement reflects our commitment to keep improving the range and quality of games we offer our customers.“Realistic is a great content maker and we are particularly excited about being able to offer our players their enhanced roulette and blackjack games on mobile for the first time.”Realistic CEO Andy Harris said: “Deals don’t come much bigger than this – we are absolutely thrilled to be working with GVC, an international leader in both B2C and B2B markets.“Liron and his team have been a pleasure to work with and share our passion for product and an understanding that the quality of it will have a significant impact on revenues.“We think the deal will deliver material benefits for both companies, particularly through our market-leading multi-channel table games.”Deals of this nature have been coming thick and fast for the pair in recent weeks.Realistic recently inked a content distribution partnership with BetConstruct, while GVC signed a multi-year content agreement with iSoftBet in September.
dave297
04 Oct 2016
Weakening £ Should bost our revenues ,profitability & dividends( next year)
claude reins
20 Sep 2016
Re: more Who was this from, gilotron?
gilotron
20 Sep 2016
more GVC: Strong H1 numbers, guiding to upper end of range for FY16 (BUY) Delivers strong set of H1 numbers (all H1 numbers are pro-forma basis)Net gaming revenue (NGR) was €442m (+8% yoy), slightly ahead of €439m guided in Q2 update in July. As noted in July, Sports NGR +10% and Gaming +8%. H1 clean EBITDA (pre share payments) was €104m vs. our expectation of €93m. The beat is mainly driven by better cost performance than we anticipated (faster delivery of cost synergies). Marketing as a % of NGR was 21% in H1. Sports performance very impressive & driving all the growthWhile Sports NGR was released already, its worth highlighting how all H1 growth was coming from Sportsbook customers. Sports labels (i.e. revenue from Sports book customers) saw sports wagers +5%, but NGR +10%. The group stated while sporting results helped, better risk management actions were a major contributor. Gaming NGR from sports book customers was +20% yoy to €157m, driven by cross sell and improved product (>500 new games). Gaming labels weak in H1, but improved performance in Q3On the Games labels (i.e. games driven customers), gaming NGR was -6%, due to currency weakness and the competitive UK bingo market. The group did state that it has added new talent, is introducing new products and increasing marketing, and is starting to see benefits (Q3 to September 15th revenues are +6% in cc). Current trading and positive outlookCurrent trading in the 11 weeks to Sept 15th is +15% (cc) or +12% reported. Integration appears to be more than on track, with completion expected by end of Q217 and €125m cost synergies re-iterated. Management states that the organic growth opportunities from the bwin.party acquisition are greater than expected, which will be exploited through increased marketing. Management is confident of delivering a result for 2016 at the upper end of market expectations. Elsewhere, CFO Richard Cooper is to step down in February 2017, to be replaced by Paul Miles (ex RSA, Wonga). The group is committed to resuming dividends in 2017. Encouragingly, during H1 just under 70% of revenues came from markets that are regulated, in the process of regulation or where GVC pays taxes or VAT. The positive GVC story is in great shape!Overall, the H1 numbers give us further confidence in our positive call. The integration is more than on track, and encouragingly management have outlined that the organic growth opportunity is greater than originally expected. The group is going to increase marketing investment to take advantage of this opportunity, which augurs well for the medium to longer term growth outlook for the group. In terms of our forecasts, we currently sit at the lower end of the consensus range for FY16 (EBITDA pre SBP of €188m), but we are ahead of consensus in FY17 at €266m. We are likely to increase FY16 towards €205m given today’s guidance. In terms of FY17, we are likely to remain around €266m, as while the business is delivering strong growth, the group does face a number of incremental taxes/duties at different stages throughout 2017. Re-iterate BUY.
gilotron
20 Sep 2016
citi 1H16 Earnings; Bwin Integration On TrackGVC (GVC.L)· Citi's Take — GVC delivered a strong 1H16 result. Adjusted EBITDA was €104.4 million, up 42% YoY on a pro-forma basis. Actual EBITDA was €91.2 million, 9% above Citi expectations of €83.5 million. The strong operational result has been an outcome from the improved trading performance with Net Gaming Revenue up 12% YoY (on a constant currency, pro-forma basis) as well as cost saves. GVC’s 1H16 Adjusted EPS was €19.8 cents. GVC maintains that it will resume dividends in 2017e following its likely upcoming Cerberus debt re-financing in February 2017.· Bwin Revival — GVC’s 1H16 result confirms the early benefits from the integration of Bwin. Sports is outperforming with +18% YoY constant currency NGR growth, mostly due to the Bwin revival in key markets, cross-sell and favourable results during the FIFA Euro Championships. Games Labels (including Casino and Poker) had NGR decline 3% in 1H16. GVC has implemented several strategic initiatives that are expected to benefit future periods. Pleasingly, PartyPoker is showing growth and 3Q16 Games Label NGR is up 6% in constant currency.· Outlook — We expect 2016e will be a strong year for GVC as it executes on the integration of Bwin. While the improved Bwin performance is positive, the largest driver of earnings growth is the realisation of cost synergies. Our forecasts are consistent with guidance and expect the synergy run-rate to be €125 million by the end of 2017e.· Valuation — GVC shares currently trade at a 2017e EV/EBITDA of 10.0x. Our 675p target price implies a fair-value 2017e EV/EBITDA of 9.2x. We apply a discount to other gambling peers given the high portion of group earnings derived from unregulated (or yet to be taxed) gambling markets.· Implications — We expect the 1H16 performance will support consensus 2016e EBITDA upgrades of c.5%. While early integration benefits are positive, our Neutral rating reflects the view that the sales outperformance will be more difficult to repeat in future periods and cost synergies are fully captured within the current valuation.
claude reins
20 Sep 2016
Re: Interims today Most important for me is the progress continuing into the second half and also the forecast that final results should be at the upper end of market expectations. It is also satisfying to see that the bwin side is showing greater potential than expected and that there are greater cross selling opportunities which GVC can exploit.
dave297
20 Sep 2016
Interims today Solid Results showing decent growth,intergration of Bwin acoording to plan ( with synergies of £125mill by 2017) & , most importantly,confirmation of the resumption of dividends next year.Should have gone all in !
Joatmon
16 Sep 2016
Big trades and volume today a good sign A massive trade of 14million shares and another trade of over 1 million shares today - plus a huge volume are all good signs.
1947MGTC
09 Sep 2016
Re: CanAccord recommendation I see this as an £8 plus share which is why I bought more at £6.99 and have been long since 2006 enjoying some phenomenal dividends. Assuming we get good results on the 20th Sept and dividend reinstatement some time around end of 1st quarter the sp should continue to head further north.DYOR etc47TC
Joatmon
09 Sep 2016
CanAccord recommendation The Canaccord recommendation target price has already been breached.I suggest the half year GVC results (due to be announced on September 20th) - could be boost to the share price maybe to 800p by October - but I could be wrong..
gilotron
05 Aug 2016
Cenkos GVC Holdings Plc (GVC LN, 640p, £1,869m, BUY)Stunning refinancing GVC has announced it has entered into a commitment to replace its existing €400m loan facility with a €250m unsecured loan from Nomura. The rate of 2.0% above Euribor with no floor is a dramatic reduction on the 11.5% above Euribor with a 1.0% floor currently being paid. The refinancing will become effective on or around 1 February 2017 and this is arguably the most significant announcement from the group since the acquisition of bwin.party was completed, dispelling any unfounded concerns around the group’s business model and quality of earnings. The lower interest charge increases our 2017E EPS forecast by c6% and consequently our 2017E dividend forecast by c6%. Furthermore the group has revealed that trading remains strong with like-for-like revenue per day in constant FX up 31% YoY in July (26% in actual FX). This leaves the group well positioned to outperform against 2016E consensus expectations, in our view. The stock trades on a 2017E EV/EBITDA of 8.2x (12.3x P/E) and yields 3.8%. This appears too cheap to us given the momentum in the business and forecast earnings trajectory, Buy.n Debt refinancing. GVC has announced it has entered into a commitment to replace its existing €400m Euribor loan facility from Cerberus at +11.5% above Euribor (with 1.0% Euribor floor) with a €250m unsecured loan from Nomura at 2.0% above Euribor (with 0.0% Euribor floor), effective on or around 1 February 2017. This is a significantly better than expected outcome with the group refinancing earlier than anticipated at a vastly lower rate (we had assumed 7.5% above Euribor). The loan is for an initial term of 12 months plus a six or 12 month extension period.n Current trading and outlook. The group has revealed that trading remains strong with like-for-like revenue per day in constant FX up 31% YoY in July (26% in actual FX) boosted by Euro 2016 (H1: +11%, Q2: +16%). As at 24 July, the group had net debt of €154.3m. The key short-term challenge for the group is the migration of customers from historically GVC-owned sportsbooks to the bwin platform. The H1 results on 20 September will provide a further opportunity to update on this plus current trading and likely FY out-turn against market expectations; we believe the group remains well positioned to outperform against consensus of €197m EBITDA.n Forecasts and valuation. The debt refinancing is expected to generate annual cash interest savings of €43.3m. The lower interest charges increase our 2017E EPS forecast by c6% and consequently our 2017E dividend forecast by c6%. Our free cash flow forecast increases by c60% and net debt falls by 66%. Our 2018 and 2019 forecasts increase modestly given the already very low levels of debt we had previously assumed (see table below). Our 2016 forecasts are unchanged given the 1 February 2017 effective refinancing date. The stock trades on a 2017E EV/EBITDA of 8.2x (12.3x P/E) and yields 3.8%. This appears too cheap to us given the momentum in the business and forecast earnings trajectory and against a sector average 2017E EV/EBITDA of c10x and closest peer Paddy Power Betfair (PPB LN, Sell) on 16.0x. We see fair value of 1030p, 61% potential upside, Buy. Forecasts and RatiosYear end December20122013201420152016E2017E2018E2019ERevenue (€m)107.1182.1224.8247.7847.5865.8952.31000.0EBITDA (€m)15.538.349.254.1196.6258.9310.9342.0PBT (€m)10.632.742.946.787.8188.9261.5309.3EPS (c)31.657.263.871.328.357.977.291.4DPS (c)22.048.555.528.00.029.038.645.7EV/EBITDA15.010.59.28.511.58.26.45.4P/E23.913.211.910.626.212.38.97.5Yield2.9%6.4%7.3%3.7%0.0%3.8%5.1%6.0%
gilotron
05 Aug 2016
liberium initiated coverage A winning formulaBUYTarget price 738p | Publication price 657pGVC is a unique quoted gaming operator in terms of geographic diversity and exposure to growth markets; only c.10% of customers from the UK means it is the least exposed of any peer to the risk of increasing duty/regulation in its domestic market. The synergy benefits of bwin are substantial and we expect EPS to more than double between FY16 and FY18. Our TP of 738p is prudently calculated using multiples at a discount to peers.Key points· Exposure to high growth markets· €125m synergy benefits from bwin· Pure online play· Grey market exposure has risks· Valuation still attractiveCatalysts· Delivery of synergy benefits· Upside risk to forecasts· Improving cross-sell at bwin· Further M&A activity· Resumption of dividendWhat market misses· Cross-sell upside at bwin· Unregulated market benefits· More growth/less competition· Widest geographic mixValuation· EPS set to more than double FY18 vs FY16· PT of 738p; discount to peers· Strongly cash generative· Growing dividend yield from FY17Derivation of Price Target 738p YearMetricImplied EV (£
Implied mkt cap (£Implied valuation Gaming sector EV/EBITDAFY178.8x19591925Gaming sector P/EFY1714.8x 2189YieldFY173.0% 2020DCF (WACC 10%) 2487 Average Market Cap (£ 2155FD number of shares 292 Target price (pence) 738p Source: LiberumSummary Financials & Valuation (€m)FY - December year endValuation (FY)15A16E17E18EP/E (x)n.a.27.112.710.2Div Yield (%)n.a.0.03.24.1EV/Sales (x)2.82.92.62.2EV/EBITDA (x)14.012.48.66.9EV/EBIT (x)25.216.710.88.5FCF Yield (%)5.41.49.411.7Price / book (x)3.61.81.71.6 Financials (FY)15A16E17E18ESales810849898971EBITDA163198268314EBIT90.5146213256EBIT margin (%)11.217.223.70.0Net Interest-3.9-50.8-8.4-3.1PBT86.695.5205253FD EPS (c)n/a28.661.275.8DPS (c)n/a0.025.032.0
f1nants
01 Aug 2016
Re: Premium List I dont think it works like that. Trackers hold shares representative of an index not all the shares comprising it and funds have managers and analysis teams whose job is to decide which shares are most appealing to their strategy.The main thing about the Premium list is more people/computers will follow GVC and more importantly the disclosure and regulation is much tighter. Incidentally when comparing secondary and AIM market regulations AIM is more tightly controlled so moving from AIm to the FTSE secondary market is in fact less onerous on a company. (Not many people know that!!)
dave297
01 Aug 2016
Premium List Trackers & other funds now compelled to buy GVC-whether they want to or not & should result in a firming SP,especially if backed up by a strong trading update
