GlaxoSmithKline Live Discussion

NewBill1703 09 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 marktime1231: In the last 12 month (just !) there have been opportunities to buy at £13 and sell at £16, both gleefully taken, while retaining a core. When the opportunities arise in future to trade the price cycle, whether on core performance or moving exchange rates, take them. I think MT has it about right - indeed, on a much longer term view, the evidence is you buy around £13 and sell around £17. I managed to get in a tad below £13 not so long ago, and increasingly I see that end of the range as well-underpinned, given the strong growth in FCF just reported for FY2018, which now comfortably covers the dividend (even on my own calculation of FCF, which gives a slightly lower figure than GSK’s)… for the first time in years. But equally, Games is not wrong really - hard to see sustainable growth which would justify any kind of sustained push beyond the other end of the range.

newtonukequities 08 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 I agree, GSK is one for the long time. Buy on the dips and enjoy the dividends for years to come. The purchase of TESARO for £4.0 bn was expensive, lets hope they can make it work. GLA

marktime1231 08 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 I agree with everyone. GSK is a long term holder and keeper for what at times are welcome dividend returns, but don’t nail yourself to forever, it all depends on the price. In the last 12 month (just !) there have been opportunities to buy at £13 and sell at £16, both gleefully taken, while retaining a core. When the opportunities arise in future to trade the price cycle, whether on core performance or moving exchange rates, take them.

Gamesinvestor1 08 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 Doug - nice one – I made a great return out of Superdry back in it’s Dunkerton days and made a modest reentry which is now underwater – I didn’t think the results were that bad the other day - Dunkerton may yet get it’s wish, as I consider the issue more of management rather than the tainting of the brand. Not in BooHoo or ASOS to be honest – the margins on the latter seem to have been cut and cut and cut – great concept though when it was launched as ““As Seen On Screen”” Games

Gamesinvestor1 08 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 Good luck guys, I’m sure you’ll do fine, but for me the decision is to look for more growth, and profitable growth, and maybe GSK can return to it, but the picture doesn’t quite ring for me. I can’t complain, I’ve never lost money holding GSK, I just don’t think it has that great a future - that’s all really. In the stock market, one has to make judgements, some turn out well, others don’t – only time will tell – neither decision to sell GSK or buy Joules or others has anything to do with Brexit – and nor should it really. Games

frog_in_a_tree 08 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 Hi Doug, I would be cautious about dumping GSK. As an internally trading company it is a good hedge against Brexit woes. Other than having to run fast to maintain its pipeline of new drugs, there are no great risks and it is not going outbof business anytimesoon. A reliable provider of dividends and, in my view, a keeper. Cheers, Frog

Uncle_Doug 08 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 Hope they do better than SuperDry for you. Ouch! My teenage spies say Boohoo is “sick” these days. I’m in deep there. I’ll be dumping GSK soon but waiting for 1580/ 1600.

Gamesinvestor1 08 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 Yep – Put it all into Joules Doug - so far so good. Games

Uncle_Doug 08 Feb 2019

Back Below 1500 So @Gamesinvestor1 , did you sell your daughter’s GSK shares yet? If you follow your own bearish analysis you should have done by now. So tempting just to wait for that next divvi though, isn’t it? So tempting to hold a solid defensive with all the political mess around?

Gamesinvestor1 08 Feb 2019

Moving like Michael Jackson's moonwalk That’s the way it looks. Whilst GSK appears to have grown it’s revenue from the £23-26BN level to 2016, in 2017 and 2018 it reached £30Bn - excellent GSK has returned to growth! Or has it and at what cost he adds? During that time, from 2016 to 2017 operating expense jumped from £19Bn to £26Bn – so somewhat faster growth than the acquisitively focused revenue growth perhaps? Revenue growth – 15% over 5 years - Expense growth 37% Somewhat expensive growth no? Income growth – well it’s a negative number - in 2013 - net income after tax was £5.6Bn and in 2017 it looked like £3.2bn - 43% drop - and 2018 an improvement perhaps? Debt – Total debt rose from £18.7Bn to £26Bn in 2017 and in 2018? So this seems to have risen much faster as well at 39% GSK going forward, with the advent of coming off Advair? GSK/Emma can’t just keep buying revenue at the cost of increasing operating expense and debt - can it? Still on your list Bill? Games – Not buying back into this story anytime soon.

NewBill1703 26 Jan 2019

Chairman Steps Down Gamesinvestor1: Or and I being overly negative and stirring up bad scenarios where non exist? Games – I’d look at this as a signal to join him Maybe everything, maybe nothing, Games. I suspect the latter here… and in any event, not going to fret a long goodbye from a former bean-counting Non-Exec. As long as they bring in someone strong enough as a counterweight to EW, who has clearly established a tight control of her business.

Gamesinvestor1 21 Jan 2019

Chairman Steps Down MorningstarUK – 21 Jan 19 TOP NEWS: Glaxo Seeking New Chairman As Hampton Announces Departure LONDON (Alliance News) - GlaxoSmithKline PLC on Monday said Non-Executive Chairman Philip Hampton ... “”"“Following the announcement of our deal with Pfizer Inc and the intended separation of the new consumer business, I believe this is the right moment to step down and allow a new chair to oversee this process through to its conclusion over the next few years and to lead the board into this next phase,” Hampton said.""" Or could this read, he either doesn’t agree with what’s just happened, or he doesn’t want to be associated with it in the next two years because it looks like a bit of a mess? Or and I being overly negative and stirring up bad scenarios where non exist? Games – I’d look at this as a signal to join him

Gamesinvestor1 20 Jan 2019

Back Below 1500 Nice one there William, always good to have courage of conviction. Regards Games

NewBill1703 20 Jan 2019

Back Below 1500 Gamesinvestor1: The company has already stated that it will not support the current dividend in a guaranteed form as was the case up to the end of 2018. The new dividend policy links the dividend to cash flow, where as historically the dividend was maintained even when uncovered by cash. Well, I believe they have “guaranteed” the divi for 2019 too - but yes, beyond that, it will have to be earned rather than entitled. Nothing wrong with that, 'tis the way it should be, and a divi policy linked to FCF makes much more long-term sense than any earnings basis. Around £15, I agree, there probably are quite a few better places for your cash - though that it is more of a reflection of the ever-larger number of compelling long-term opportunities out there, whatever the near-term overhang. And… not a few WORSE places for your cash, too. I remain a happy holder - whither goest the dividend!

Gamesinvestor1 18 Jan 2019

Back Below 1500 Doug - watch out for Tesaro