marktime1231
12 Feb 2018
Topped up A small top up, hard to know which bargain to choose at the moment so I am spreading the love.
gamesinvestor
12 Feb 2018
Re: Pfizer Consumer Healthcare auction "and a new position in WPP (also for the first time). Time will tell, etc...."interesting, I added to WPP when it dipped close to 1200 -- taken this up to a heady 1.4% of my wad -- It looks good to me, but then again so did ITV at higher prices than it's currently sunk to lol !!Games - treading carefully at the mo having offloaded a fair chunk in the last 3 months
Bill1703
12 Feb 2018
Re: Pfizer Consumer Healthcare auction "... isn't it likely to put downward pressure on the share price of GSK, or will it get carried up with the euphoria of winning the deal?... Is the logic more likely that if the deal doesn't go ahead, there will be a general sigh of relief an the stock starts to tick up?"Yes Games - on balance I am hoping they don't do it (one way or another) - don't need it! I kind of agree with SM, my hunch is they won't... problem is, I'm not sure I can see RB doing it either right now - would be a bold move indeed (some would say brazen), taking leverage up to a whopping c.5x ND/EBITDA on my (rough) figures.But if GSK do end up with it, hopefully it will be at the low-end of the putative range, and with chunky synergies and the mitigation of the Consumer JV structure then it may indeed be an okay deal.... Whatever.... I have deliberated long enough and I am in!! Bought a reasonable sized slug this morning - my first time on the GSK register, although it's one I've followed for donkey's. Hopefully a case of 'good things happen to those who wait', etc, etc.Or... now let's watch - another major sell-off State-side, then EW calmly shimmies up and pays $20bn for the Pfizer assets. At least it would confirm my reputation for being able to call the bottom of any stock... NOT!FWIW have also bought (in reasonable size, if not massive) some more MKS, some more IMB, and a new position in WPP (also for the first time). Time will tell, etc....
gamesinvestor
12 Feb 2018
Re: Pfizer Consumer Healthcare auction "On balance, while both GSK and RB remain interesting at current levels IMHO (more so the former), in an ideal world I'd rather know which way this goes before investing"Sounds like a good idea, if they go for it, isn't it likely to put downward pressure on the share price of GSK, or will it get carried up with the euphoria of winning the deal?Is the logic more likely that if the deal doesn't go ahead, there will be a general sigh of relief an the stock starts to tick up?Games
sound money
11 Feb 2018
Re: Pfizer Consumer Healthcare auction Prediction. She won't do it. Emma will take the Novartis deal. She has already got it worked out.M
Lupo di mare
11 Feb 2018
Re: Pfizer Consumer Healthcare auction Bill - "Getting it for $10bn (rather than £10bn) is a nice idea from Lupo, but it won't happen - Pfizer will keep it at that price."Quite, excellent
Bill1703
10 Feb 2018
Re: Pfizer Consumer Healthcare auction "Crazy money; she won't do it....er. I hope. $10bn tops, Emma."Lupo et al - interesting piece from Bloomberg's Gadfly column, very much along these lines. Full text copied below.I don't necessarily agree that RB can afford to pay more - not least as a £10bn deal (the $14bn "low end"
is not much more than 1x EBITDA for GSK, but much nearer 3x EBITDA for RB, even with MJ. But they probably do want, and need, it more.And there is a salutary warning in the Jefferies projection (as below) of a return of just 4.3% on a top-end $20bn deal, 5 years in, even after significant synergies... Nobody needs that, any more than a hole in the head. Getting it for $10bn (rather than £10bn) is a nice idea from Lupo, but it won't happen - Pfizer will keep it at that price. But if it emerges (and it will) that EW has bid low and lost, it won't do any of her, her reputation and the GSK SP any harm.... ********** ********** *********Don't Take an Advil Pfizer's $20 Billion Pill Is Too Bitter for GlaxoGlaxoSmithKline Plc is doing a useful job in providing tension to the bidding for Pfizer Inc.'s consumer healthcare business, fighting it out with Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc. The pharmaceutical giant's investors had better hope it's bluffing in the duel with its fellow British company.Consumer healthcare assets aren't the hot thing they used to be. The big pharma groups are renewing their efforts in drug discovery. Merck KgaA also has its consumer healthcare unit on the block. But this is still an attractive business for those able to build scale, like Reckitt and Glaxo. It's a fragmented industry and revenues are stable.Who is Pfizer's unit worth more to? Based on its M&A track record, expect Reckitt to be more aggressive at mining synergies. What's more, Reckitt's consumer healthcare assets are now at a similar scale to Glaxo's if you include its recently acquired Mead Johnson infant formula business. So it's not clear Glaxo has the advantage of bringing more heft to the deal.If Reckitt can justify paying more, it probably has more flexibility too. The two companies' share prices have fallen sharply over the past year, making equity issuance equally tricky for both. The stability of consumer healthcare cash flows makes them easy for both Glaxo or Reckitt to borrow against. But Glaxo would have to do a deal through its consumer joint venture with Novartis AG to be able to extract savings. While Glaxo controls that, Novartis would almost certainly be able to veto a transaction it didn't like.It would still make sense for Glaxo to chase a deal if the returns available were worth it. That looks unlikely. Given Reckitt's evident interest in bulking up in consumer healthcare, Glaxo would need a knockout bid. At the mooted $20 billion top-end purchase price, the return on acquisition in five years' time for Reckitt might be just 4.3 percent, assuming it extracted 8 percent of sales in synergy benefits, according to Jefferies research. While consumer healthcare probably has a low cost of capital, such a return looks inadequate -- and Glaxo might not be able to match it.Now consider the opportunity cost. If Reckitt misses the Pfizer deal, another chance to bulk up its main business so rapidly may not come along for ages. If Glaxo passes, it potentially loses the number one slot but still has sufficient scale. To win the auction, Glaxo needs to outbid a rival that can probably afford to pay more, has fewer constraints and more to lose if it doesn't win.That doubtless explains why CEO Emma Walmsley was talking up pretty much every other potential use of Glaxo's financial firepower with yearly results on Wednesday. She indicated that she's still looking at the Pfizer asset. Both her shareholders and Pfizer's should cross their fingers that she's just trying to make Reckitt overpay.
Lupo di mare
10 Feb 2018
Re: Pfizer Consumer Healthcare auction Crazy money; she won't do it....er. I hope. $10bn tops, Emma.
IOMINVESTCOM
09 Feb 2018
Kepler Cheuvreux upped its stance (ShareCast News) - Kepler Cheuvreux upped its stance on pharmaceuticals giant GlaxoSmithKline to 'hold' from 'reduce' on Friday, lifting the price target to 1,360p from 1,340p as it said the worst-case scenario for the stock was now priced inKepler's 'reduce' case had been based on investors underestimating the impact of generic US Advair on the pharma business's operating profit, as well as stronger-than-expected HIV competition. But investors appear to now be pricing in worst-case scenarios for HIV and US generic Advair, both of which catalysts have become less negative since the new guidance issued by the company this week.It noted that the last of the three generic Advair developers had a complete response letter from the FDA on 8 February. The FDA sends a complete response letter when it has completed its review of a new or generic drug application and decided that it will not approve it for marketing in its present form.Kepler also pointed out that GSK is suing Gilead, the maker of bictegravir and its key HIV competitor, for patent infringement, which could lead to a royalty stream.Still, it argued that the stock is not a 'buy' given the lack of near-term positive catalysts and the risk of GSK buying Pfizer's consumer unit. In addition, Kepler pointed out that while GSK has made high-quality hires and new management is revitalising R&D productivity, the fruits of this are still a way off.Kepler now estimates a 5.2% 2016-2010 earnings per share compound annual growth rate, leaving upside to Glaxo's mid to high single-digit guidance.At 1050 GMT, the shares were down 0.5% to 1,297p.
jarfurrank
09 Feb 2018
Re: Beaufort - Strong Results - Buy IOMINVESTCOM - thanks for the link. Good analysis of results.Have been a holder for years & looking to add.
IOMINVESTCOM
08 Feb 2018
Beaufort - Strong Results - Buy [link]
II Editor
08 Feb 2018
NEW ARTICLE: A well-established share for the contrarian investor "Written 7 February 2018 23:15GSK (LSE:GSK)This week, we've been taking the easy option for 'headline' subjects by choosing shares from our email. Today, it's LSE:GSK:GlaxoSmithKline's turn under the spotlight, a well established share currently ..."[link]
IOMINVESTCOM
08 Feb 2018
Re: NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 8/02... Looks like it is going to Test 13.23 after pushing past the 12.95 area.atb
IOMINVESTCOM
08 Feb 2018
Won another reprieve on Advair LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - GlaxoSmithKline has won another reprieve for its blockbuster Advair lung drug after U.S. regulators delayed approval of a generic copy from Novartis's Sandoz division.The Swiss drugmaker said in an emailed statement on Thursday it had received a so-called complete response letter from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and a generic Advair launch this year was now "highly unlikely".[link]
IOMINVESTCOM
08 Feb 2018
Telegraph [link]
