wokwok wokwok
26 Oct 2015
Processed pork in sausage rolls carcinerous [link] is going to get hammered with this news imh
ignateus ignoramus
21 Oct 2015
Perception The way 'people' are talking about Greggs has changed quite a bit since Roger Whiteside took the helm. Investors Chronicle calls the Company one of the 'great companies that control the barriers to entry that ward off competitors', calling Greggs' shares one of those which are 'armour plated'. Canaccord Genuity headed it's 15 April 2015 report on Greggs 'And now for something very special' - they were referring to the future potential of Greggs to provide regular 'extra' returns to shareholders through the use of Special Dividends. iii seems to be coming around to the view that Greggs deserves the premium rating tag that the market would appear to have placed on the Company. Bloomberg has Greggs 'transitioning into a purveyor of fresh coffee and high quality fare'. Elsewhere - not sure where I came across this - referred to as a 'pastry and coffee shop'. At least one member of the senior personnel within Pret a Manger is believed to have given a personal opinion that Prets 'worry about Greggs as a competitior' because 'they [greggs] are doing a great job'. The strong buy is for the long term as ever.
II Editor
06 Oct 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Greggs' offers huge upside after super summer "Falling costs and rising sales during its third-quarter will continue to benefit LSE:GRG:Greggs for the rest of 2015. The high street baker says full-year sales are "slightly ahead" of plan and that opening more shops will help numbers against ..."[link]
coolcharm
06 Oct 2015
Re: Optimistic for tomorrow Kudos Ignateus I, hats off to you. This is by far my best investment and glad I stuck with it through the dark days of the recession. One of the best businesses around, with a simple to understand model, honest and competent management. What not to like? Might treat myself to a hot sausage roll for lunch.
ignateus ignoramus
06 Oct 2015
Re: Optimistic for tomorrow I hate to say it - but I told you so.Better than I dared to hope.Canacord Genuity have returned to the 'buy side'.Euro Garages news is a treat.Third quarter effectively outstrips the first two in terms of a previous two years view - excellent news.Strong buy is for the long term as always.
ignateus ignoramus
05 Oct 2015
Optimistic for tomorrow I am feeling optimistic for tomorrow.The LFL's in the most recent period,, that they are anouncing tomorrow will not be as good as the first six months but then they are set against much tougher comparatives.I think perversely that the general market sell-off has done Greggs a favour, and the news tomorrow, which will be a LFL increase of 4.5%in the most recent period I believe, will allow for an increase in the share price.This was always going to be the anouncement that no one dared to predict, because the second half of last year was so good, but I have bitten the bullet.The strong buy is for the long term as ever.
oldjoe1
21 Aug 2015
GRG Broker Sell Note. RELATED QUOTESSymbol Price ChangeGGGSF 20.30 0.00LONDON (ShareCast) - Broker Berenberg has begun coverage of Greggs (Other OTC: GGGSF - news) with a 'sell' recommendation on the fast food chain's shares as the market appears to be ignoring several potential risks ahead. Greggs's recent strategy to focus on its core food-on-the-go market and improve the supply chain has been met with initial success, helping the company pick itself up after struggles in the face of new market entrants and the rapid expansion of other rivals.The strategic overhaul launched in 2013 has provided some initial success, with total sales up 5.5% in 2014 and own shop like-for-like sales up 4.5% - the strongest like-for-like growth since the recession.This contributed to a 40% increase in pre-exceptional operating profits in 2014 to £58.1m. For 2015, management believes market conditions remain favourable: costs are well under control, it should achieve net shop growth of 20-30 sites and, despite being mindful of the strong sales comparatives in 2014, it remains optimistic on the year.But with the stock responding well to the improvement in business performance, analysts at the German bank believe risks still remain in the recovery story that are not being captured in the share price, which is now up 90% since July 2014.The stock trades at 19.8 times forecast 2015 earnings versus UK food service peers on 21.9 times earnings.Berenberg's UK food retail team say potential risks lie in the competitive nature of a market growing at circa 2-6% per year and driven by both like-for-like growth in existing sites and continued roll-outs of new sites from a plethora of competitors such as coffee shops, supermarket convenience stores, specialists and fast food operators.Like-for-like comparisons are expected to become tougher through 2015, demanding more from the existing product offering.Then, while the plan to refurbish stores and exit poorly performing ones has seen initial success, the analysts believe the net store additions will be limited in the coming years and will not contribute materially to top-line growth.Finally, it is likely to be hard for the company to replicate the type of margin growth seen between 2013 and 2014 when EBIT margins rose 1.8% to 7.2%."While management is seeing continued ingredient and packaging cost deflation and an improvement in efficiencies which will contribute to EBIT margin progression in the coming years, we believe much of this is already priced in." "With new competition entering the market and management anticipating the need for 1-2% like-for-like growth for the margins to standstill we see limited scope for future margin progression." Berenberg initiates with a price target of 820p.
zulu principle2
30 Jul 2015
Re: Valuations Thats 15% up in 2 days.I would expect to see some profit taking soon.
zulu principle2
29 Jul 2015
Valuations The valuations are very high before todays announcement2016 PER 23 and PEG 2.12017 PER 22 and PEG 2.6These will change a little but it wont make much differenceAm I going to sell?NO WAYWhy Not as the valuations are so high?I've been invested here since Sept 2014 and in all 5 trading updates since then they have said the will beat expectations and they have.I think the next statement could easily continue that trend
mcescher
29 Jul 2015
Pretty cool GRG / CWK infographic report Good Greggs / Cranswick plc comparison. Has analysts estimates of EPS which is interesting. [link]
zulu principle2
29 Jul 2015
results Slightly ahead of expectations thats good so hopefully a good start today
LK Hyman
28 May 2015
Re: Oh Boy Oh Boy Oh Boy !!! Ignateus,"I think my subject line comes from the flintstones but I could be wrong."I thought it was from Buddy Holly ....[link] done with your success in this puppy. If only I had hung on mesen! I was put off by the fact that the CEO had (and still has) very large ears. Clearly that is a sign of sagacity.LKH on the flybridge former Greggs shareholder alas
ignateus ignoramus
06 May 2015
Re: Canaccord Genuity More detail from that earlier report from Canaccord Genuity of 15 April.Dividends estimated of 25.4p and 28.3p for 2015 and 2016 respectively.Estimated gradual margin improvement for all of the next five years which is as far as the report looks ahead.A L4L base case estimate of plus 3% going forward with a bullish estimate of plus 4%.Estimated cost savings of £17m in 2015, £20m in 2016, £22m in 2017 and £24m in 2018.Estimated continued high levels of capital expenditure on a par to amounts which will be spent this year. But set against that info they still estimate a growing free cash flow.Estimated minimum level of cash to be held on the balance sheet at the end of each year to be £20m.Possible estimated distribution to shareholders over the medium term of between £248m and £390m, with the latter requiring that Greggs take on debt in a similar way to Next Plc.Estimated special dividend payments in total of £100m over 5 years - included in the above.The strong buy is for the long term as always.
ignateus ignoramus
05 May 2015
Oh Boy Oh Boy Oh Boy !!! I was about to write that it doesn't get any better than this - and then I paused for thought - it will do.I think my subject line comes from the flintstones but I could be wrong.20p Special Dividend will be the first of many, and surprised me by being delivered in a year of high capital expenditure.Canaccord Genuity have raised thier target price to £13.50.The strong buy is for the long term as ever.
zulu principle2
29 Apr 2015
Worth listening to Worth listening to, first part is about greggs[link]
