ignateus ignoramus
20 Jul 2016
Upcoming interims and trading update Less than two weeks to the interim results and trading update on 2 August.We will find out if it was right to lump Greggs in with all the other Brexit sufferers, or whether the Company really is a special case as I believe it is.Greggs is a one-off and the results and trading update will prove it - you heard it here first, or perhaps not since most of the analysts currently have unchanged buy advice and 12 month forecasts from prior to the Referendum.The strong buy is for the long term as ever.
YoungAtHeart200
03 Jul 2016
Re: What a week that was Yes to that.....Brexit is like a computer crash and we are still in the OMG what has happened phase. Still, after we reboot with the EU, with due time and effort, I hope that our 'computer' will work as well as before.
ignateus ignoramus
01 Jul 2016
What a week that was That was some week - or is chaos the new normal ?Greggs crept back over the 1 billion pound sterling valuation mark today before closing the week 2m short of that figure.To some extent everything got lumped together in the early days of the general 'nobody knows what is going on and what is going to happen next' crisis.And yet let us not forget that Greggs is a retail winner and likely to have a competitive advantage according to Warren Buffet's formula of such companies having gross margin's consistently above 40 per cent.Greggs enjoys a gross margin of consistently more than 60 per cent, whereas Marks and Spencer over the period 2005-2014 [FT] had gross margins of between 35 and 39 per cent. Debenham and BHS over the same period were respectively between 10 and 20 per cent, and 0 and 20 per cent, with zero being the approximate figure for BHS in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.The strong buy is for the long term as ever.
YoungAtHeart200
27 Jun 2016
Re: pasties Agreed, the sell-off looks too swift and steep for me.....so I have topped up, hoping for a 10% short-term bounce. We'll see, of course, as post Brexit is going to be choppy.If I'm wrong then I'll just have to buy another Greggs sausage roll.
petethenovice
27 Jun 2016
pasties Just bought these cant see the political situation no matter which where the future takes us will stop people eating sausage rolls
ignateus ignoramus
20 Jun 2016
P/E and 'actual' P/E According to Robert Sutherland Smith in his recent article for Master Investor, when Greggs' price was 10.90, in precise or ACTUAL terms the forward or forecast p/e for Greggs based on forecast earnings per share of 59p for 2016, was not 18.5 but 14.If you wish to establish more precisely what it is an investor is paying for the ACTUAL earnings per share, you need to adjust for the amount of shareholder equity [266m], Greggs has no debt. Once this amount is removed from the market value of the Company, as it should be because it is this equity that 'commands' the total assets of the Company in the current sum of 384m, then you have a market value of 835m, or approx 8.27 per share.835m divided by 101m shares gives 8.27 pounds per share and 8.27 divided by 59p eps gives an ACTUAL p/e multiple of 14 times for 2016.Looking to 2017 with forecast eps of 62.8p the p/e is apparently/conventionally 17.3 which is close to last year's conventional arrived at p/e of 17.5. But in ACTUAL terms this forecast figure should be a much more palatable 13.1 times.There is real value, 'unseen' / actual, in Greggs.My strong BUY is for the long term as ev
ignateus ignoramus
10 Jun 2016
Greggs' 'Re-investment Moat' runway With a relatively high Price Earnings ratio Greggs may look superficially relatively unattractive. This ratio does not capture a company's future prospects as well as one that looks at it's return on invested capital [ROIC] where Greggs has superlative performance metrics.The Company has the huge twin advantages of low cost of production and scale advantages. This would be of less future share price performance relevance if it was not for the fact that it sees the prospect of there being scope and room for significantly more than 2,000 units in the future compared with it's current 1,720 or so.Put another way - Greggs has a strong defence in the form of a moat because of it's size and it's vertically integrated model, but not only that, it's moat is a 'Re-investment Moat', essentially because of it's 'very long runway' of expansion stretching into the future.Superficially you might think that if you buy Greggs at the current P/E ratio you might be buying a quality company at a high water mark valuation, from which the share price can only be maintained or fall. The primary driver of the share price from this point is the expansion plans, providing the long runway to bolster the re-investment moat. Some other drivers of course include it's dividend growth, it's 23 years of dividend payment, strong likelihood of regular special dividends and it's current long term programme of investment in it's means of production and productivityThe strong buy is for the long term as ever.[source of the idea of the re-investment moat comes from an article by Connor Leonard that I found on Base Hit Investing . c
ignateus ignoramus
03 Jun 2016
Re: Greggs is one of the Retail Winners Investec have put some skin on the bones and forecast a Total Shareholder Return [TSR] for Greggs of 9per cent for 2016 and 13.5 per cent for 2017. I believe these figures to be pretty impressive.Investec suggest that Greggs justifies a premium rating due to a combination of high TSR, the potential for upgrades from the ongoing programme for change and the possibility of incremental capital returns of up to 20 million pounds per year from 2017 due to the strength of cash generation within the business.The strong buy is for the long term as always.
ignateus ignoramus
25 May 2016
Top 10 in FTSE 350 Greggs has been named in the top 10 in an 'Earnings Momentum' screen of the FTSE 350 by Stockopedia and published on 18/05/2016.The screen looked for a history of growing earnings per share, analysts forecasting earnings growth in the coming year, recent earnings forecast upgrades by analysts and a high 'Quality Rank' as a guide to profitability and strength of a company.The screen picked out 10 profitable shares for uncertain markets, being stocks at less risk of suffering a disappointment.Within that list of ten Greggs was the Company with the highest Quality Rank of 96 out of a possible 100. The next highest Quality Ranked Companies on the lscreen list after Greggs were Persimmon, Reckitt Benkiser, Bellway and Sage.The strong Buy is for the long term as ever.
ignateus ignoramus
20 May 2016
Investors Chronicle advises BUY Greggs IC states that Gregg's deserves it's premium rating and is outperforming consumer focused rivals.Greggs' management has said it expects the timing of the new national living wage to have a potential benefit, particularly in the first half of the financial year.
ignateus ignoramus
13 May 2016
Re: Greggs is one of the Retail Winners Investec have initiated coverage with a buy and set a price target of 12.50.That adds to the buys from Canacord and Peel Hunt with price targets of 13.25 and 13.20, while N1 Singer have a 'corporate' [an effective buy] and price target of 12.00.Clive Black, retail analyst at Shore Capital, described Greggs latest business update as a 'very robust performance'.Greggs now operates 128 franchise units where Peel Hunt estimate that the Company generates around 10 per cent 'from franchise system sales in the form of royalty fees and mark up on commissary sales'.Greggs are paying well above the National Living Wage and do not differentiate between people who are under and over 25, continuing their good credentials in the area of social responsibility.The strong buy is for the long term as ever.
II Editor
09 May 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Healthier Greggs survives stodgy March "The high street had a tough start to the year, but LSE:GRG:Greggs has shown there is still demand for its sausage rolls and pasties, along with its new healthier options. Thanks to its ambitious and ongoing store and product turnaround programme, ..."[link]
ignateus ignoramus
06 May 2016
Re: Greggs is one of the Retail Winners It would appear that Investec agree with me since they have initiated coverage with a Buy, saying the Company is at an interesting juncture having spent the last two and a half years transitioning towards the food-on-the-go market. They also feel that the trading update due first thing on Monday morning may be a potential positive catalyst.So that is 4 Buys and 3 holds out of seven brokers.Sharepad on sharescope are forecasting a Return On Capital Employed [ROCE] for Greggs in 2016 of 30.8 per cent.The strong buy is for the long term as ever.
coolcharm
05 May 2016
Re: Wins PLC Turnaround of the year 2015 Thanks for the reminder Ignateus. The share price has reacted accordingly.
ignateus ignoramus
04 May 2016
Wins PLC Turnaround of the year 2015 Greggs has just won the award at the 2015 PLC Awards.This award recognises the Company 'turnaround of the year' in a way likely to save, or substantially improve the business and offer the prospect of the creation or enhancement of substantial shareholder value in the future.The Company's industry peers appear to have a very high regard for Greggs and what it is achieving with it's current programme for change.Only 5 days to go to the trading update when the market will again be reminded how well the Company is doing - it seems to need reminding more often than not at the moment in these volatile times !The strong buy is for the long term as ever and seems to be particularly relevant given this award.
