zulu principle2
29 Apr 2015
Trading Statement For me the PER & PEG are very high even with the upgrades to forecasts after todays announcement.I've been invested since Sept-14 and done very wellThere have been 4 updates in a row where they have said they would beat market expectations. Will there be more? My guess is yes.Better product mix, new products, store refits, new stores and loss making stores closed. For me I run my winners and this is a winner.I do expect some profit taking
mutandis13
29 Apr 2015
Trading update A good trading update and an excellent decision on the return of capital to shareholders - an example to other management teams with share buy-backs at high P/BV ratios:[link]
ignateus ignoramus
16 Apr 2015
Re: Canaccord Genuity £13 Target Price Market Report in today's Telegraph quotes Canaccord as saying "Greggs could return nearly £250m to shareholders, equivalent to 23% of the equity, on our central assumptions, rising towards £400m on our most bullish scenario.Their Leisure Sector analyst made the comments amid talk of these large cash returns possibly taking place over the course of the next five years.Greggs trading in a Northern Ireland Motorway Services area by the end of this month.Greggs benefiting from the move from one food shop per week to more frequent visits.The strong buy is for the long term as always.
ignateus ignoramus
15 Apr 2015
Canaccord Genuity £13 Target Price They appear to have been right when they first came on the scene in January and shook things up a bit - and who is to say they are not right this time ?From their 4 March 2015 note I am assuming that they think that Greggs is now further down the road to becoming a member of the 'leisure' sector as opposed to a food producer, with the re-rating that that would bring.They apparently state that "every 1% point of L4L sales is worth £8m of revenue and £4m of EBIT".Continuing energy savings will be benefiting Greggs in terms of costs relating to fertilizer, transport and refrigeration.The strong buy is for the long term as always.
kircatflorho
09 Apr 2015
Ex Dividend Today... ... and still a rise of nearly 3%.Divi of 16p is paid on the 9th May.
ignateus ignoramus
01 Apr 2015
Coffee/Sandwich/Confidence/Treats/Verticality Coffee prices at 12 month lows.Milk and sugar prices are low.Consumer confidence is up - highest for almost 13 years.Marketing Science Unlimited survey also showed consumers renewed willingness to spend.Same survey showed reduced concern on inflation, banks folding and job security.Same survey confirmed fewer people taking a packed lunch to work, down from 23% in 2009 to 12% now - as the survey noted this is good news for sandwich providers.According to the FT The two tier consumer (vertical consumer/verticality) is now on this side of the 'pond', with horizontal consumption - whereby you are middle income and shop only in typical middle income shops is a constraint of the past. As far as I am hearing the London mob are apparently really taking to Greggs, perhaps as an alternative to Prets.Also an increasing consumer demand for indulgent treats is apparently evident which again plays into Greggs' handsThe buy is for the long term as ev
mutandis13
27 Mar 2015
Re: bought back in Strictly speaking the director buys, from what I understand, are compulsory purchases for 50% of their bonus. A good scheme as it aligns long term interests of managers and shareholders, but not independent purchases.On a DCF valuation Greggs still have some mileage left in the SP, if they can grow the FCF by around 7% pa over the next 10 yrs. This could be achieved by organic growth of 4-5% and 3+% growth in new shops (~50 shops pa), once the refurbishment programme is complete in 2016. Their FCF return on capital employed in the business has averaged 13.9% over the last 3 years, with average EBIT returning 22.9%, compared to a WACC of 7.8%, so a good level of value is being added.The big risk this year is the implementation of their new ERP system SAP, which if not managed correctly could cause problems.
zulu principle2
26 Mar 2015
bought back in I still feel the shares are fully valued based on the current broker forecastsLast year however these forecasts were continually upgraded so can this continue.Large director buying today so I am happy to follow
ignateus ignoramus
26 Mar 2015
UBS issues 'BUY' Target Price £11.20 The UBS figure of today at £11.20 tops the recent figures of £10.80 from Edison Investment Research and £10.95 from 4-Traders, but you get the picture - Greggs continues to march in the forward direction.Stockopedia were also singing Greggs' praises in their article on 25 March about the low volatility anomaly of low risk stocks flying under the radar and thriving. Greggs came out 6th best within the FTSE 350 in a screen relating to low Beta and high Stock Ranks, whereby Greggs had the 3rd lowest Beta, scoring very highly on quality of Company, value and momentum.Greggs also has a very low dividend volatility and a high reliability factor for dividends.A slide, produced by the Company, with a graph relating the number of shops on the y-axis (vertical) and the shop level contribution to profits on the x-axis, shows that in the last six months Greggs has very firmly moved it's 'Bell Curve' of performance to the right indicating improved shop level performance, and the weeding out of poor performers.It is looking really good from here with another 200 refits to come this year and the remaining 200 next year.Trust in the layer of golden Eggs.The buy is for the long term as alway
ignateus ignoramus
19 Mar 2015
Re: NEW ARTICLE: Is fast-growing Greggs over... The share price of Greggs is not 'overcooked' according to the report from Edison Investment Research dated 10 March 2015.This report notes (admitedly on very short term grounds) that while in the first quarter of 2014 L4L sales were +3.4%, they were only +2.9% in the second quarter of 2014, and hence presumably expects to hear further good LFL news update at the end of April.It also notes that 'they' 'would not be surprised to see further cash returns to shareholders' over and above their predicted yearly dividends of 24p/25.9p/27.4p per share for 2015/16/17 respectively. With heavy expenditure in 2015 I would not expect this 'bonus' to arrive until 2016 at the earliest.Two more years of refurbishments (returns on which have exceeded expectations) before the estate is up to scratch, is also another reason why 'they' think Greggs is attractively priced - giving it a fair value of £10.80 per share.Greggs has undoubtedly been 're-rated' - jumping from where it was to something of a 'no mans land', by which I mean somewhere in the direction of the Franchises and Coffee shops, but still way short of their 'mighty' p/e multiples. The jury would appear to be out as to whether it can be further re-rated, and that is entirely natural as people are trying to come to terms with what sort of operator Greggs is now and what it can become. I appear to have 'called' it right when I advised 'more filling of boots' at the early back end of last year when new highs had already been reached. I suspect there is more to come because momentum is very often underestimated, just as the economic recovery had begun long before most people realised. And yet £10 per share is quite a number for we long term holders to comprehend - £100 in 'old money' before the split.There will always be differences of opinion following a doubling of the share price - that's what makes a market - but I have great faith in the Company and the management to continue to get it right.The buy is for the long term as alway
II Editor
19 Mar 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Is fast-growing Greggs overcooked? "High street sausage roll seller LSE:GRG:Greggs has undergone something of a renaissance in recent years. Much of its chain of bakeries have received a makeover and others will follow. The menu has been upgraded, too, with more food now aimed at ..."[link]
zulu principle2
11 Mar 2015
Sold Today Sold todayGreat performing share but valuation is looking a bit high for me.going to keep a VERY close eye on the next trading statement to see if they are again trading ahead of market expectationsgood luck hope it continues to ris
II Editor
06 Mar 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: Rapid growth, but at a price "Is LSE:GRG:Greggs overvalued, or its share price momentum signalling further upside? Last year, shares in this high street baker soared from 434p to 738p and are testing 1,000p after 2014 prelims showed profit before tax and exceptionals jumped ..."[link]
aimforthesky
06 Mar 2015
Re: Second Guessing Have decided to remove the cream, taking 3k off the table.Leaves you in that limbo land where you want it to fall to justify your sale and want it to rise because you have some left. good luck all Michael
LK Hyman
05 Mar 2015
Re: £1bn Company Valuation Ignateus,All credit to you, m8. You kept the faith with Greggs and you have been duly rewarded, whereas I wimped out and sold Greggs over a year ago largely (as I recall) because Helena the Polish NED bird on the BoD couldn't spell GlaxoSmithKline despite being a consultant to the eponymous tab merchant.It just goes to show. Not sure what, but something. Clearly there's money in huge greasy pies.LKH on the flybridge
