numberbiter
10 Sep 2017
Re: The darkn1ght "If you don't like the terms and conditions you have signed up to, then leave."It is a fact that under the condition you describe, there would NEVER be any strikes. What happens, as in this case, the employee signs his contract. Then management say they are changing the contract without any discussion. Another trick played by companies who run bus services is to harass employees who expect their contract to be honoured. What happens is that the company takes over a franchise, where the employees of the taken over company earns more than their own employees. Under TUPE the employee on the higher pay retains his pay scale. This means that bus drivers working for the same company and doing the same job are getting different pay; often the difference is 20% plus. A decent company would raise the rates to the higher rate, but they don't. Instead they harass the high paid employees in the hope that they will leave.We know that Southern have not been negotiating with the Unions because they have been spurred on the Chris Grayling, the Minister of Transport, not to do so. The company doesn't mind because the Taxpayers have been picking up the penalties for poor performance. Unfortunately, management of this company do not understand that poor industrial relations is not cost effective.So I am afraid you have got it a about f. The problem is always management changing the contract of employment, with a take it or leave it attitude. This is what makes employees angry; all Unions do is try to resolve issues.
Thedarkkn1ght
08 Sep 2017
FUNDAMENTALS/OVERSOLD As I said yesterday the strikes and guard issue are not just affecting this company - it is a nationwide issue. I prefer to look at hard facts and the fundamentals here.A 20% fall in 2 days on the back of RISING revenues and a 5% fall in profits - really?These results apparently beat expectations. Strange reaction then!It is total madness. This should have fallen no more than 2-3%There is a great final dividend of 72p in only a few weeks.This alone is now yielding close to 5% after this ridiculous MM/shorter orientated fall.The P/E is 7.5No one can deny this is very low.Anything around 10 is considered a bargain.Being ultra extreme if I discount the whole rail business/all the rail profits and concentrate solely on the bus side of the business the forward P/E is still only 12!An overall dividend yield of 7% is also very high vs the 0.5-1% you get in a savings account. Furthermore this dividend is covered 2x by earnings so ample cover.RSI only 28 so remains highly oversold.A run back up to 1750-1800p in the short run as sense returns.
Topalov
08 Sep 2017
Re: The darkn1ght Have you any evidence that the company has not attempted to negotiate with the unions?Apart from which it seems very clear to me - there is simply no justification for the strike. The practice that the company wants to introduce has been ruled safe by the rail safety regulator. As far as I am aware safety is the only reason for the strike is over safety concerns. What do you think management should agree to?I commute on Southeastern railways, also owned by Go-Ahead. This franchise has no issues with staff relations and the service for the past few years has been excellent (it was appalling under Connex).Personally I don't believe in the right to strike. If you don't like the terms and conditions of the employment you have signed up to, then leave. I sold out of my investment here some time ago at a small loss - sadly the unions are making life impossible and Go-Ahead are better off without this franchise.
numberbiter
08 Sep 2017
Re: The darkn1ght Top, I assume from your response that you regard any negotiating to be 'caving in'. I have been in management for over 30 years and I can tell you that you get the highest productivity and best financial result when you treat employees like human beings and listen to them.I have spent a great deal of my working life negotiating with a number of Unions; you will find that talking to them will actually help them to resolve issues for you. In the majority of cases, it is the Union members who are unhappy, not the Union itself. The Union doesn't want the aggravation anymore than you do, so will often ask for something little, so they can get their members off their backs. This obviously means you have to compromise a little, but, in financial terms, it is always worth it.Companies like the Go-Ahead Group who believe, like you, that negotiating amounts to 'caving in' end up with a miserable, depressed and uncooperative workforce and low productivity. So when the company digs a hole for itself, the workforce refuse to bail it out. Then we get Tory politicians who complain that workers are merely honouring their contract; they are 'working to rule' they moan.Frankly, I don't care what Tory politicians think (or Labour and LibDem politicians for that matter), but what I care about is trying to select profitable investments, After a great deal of research, I found the most profitable companies were the ones who looked after their employees and achieved excellent employee relationships. An example of good employee relations is 'Google.' (parent is Alphabet).Invesrment equation: Bad Managenent = poor performance. Poor performance = declining share price,If this company's directors would take a course in industrial relations and enacted what they learnt then the share price would increase by over 50%. Until they do, this company will never meet its full potential; the current share price tells you this,
Topalov
08 Sep 2017
Re: The darkn1ght So you are a Southern passenger.Having no guard on a train has been ruled perfectly safe. There is no reason to have this outdated inefficient mode of operation.There has been only one fatality in the last 10 years due to a passenger boarding/leaving a train - it was on a train with a guard.The passenger safety argument is total BS.The guards are going to be reassigned to other duties, no job losses, no pay cuts. The train company is quite right to not cave in the unions.
LINTON5
08 Sep 2017
Re: Support/oversold What are you thinking now Darknight ?
Thedarkkn1ght
07 Sep 2017
Re: Support/oversold Lintons - there is actually some support at 1532p also and then yes it is around 1485p.These levels have not been reached since August 2013 so 4 YEAR LOWS.It's a highly volatile share that drops rapidly but usually rises just as quickly.Having read the entire annual report the only negative was with aspects of the rail franchise. Southern rail is old news now. All train services are having problems with strikes over the guard issue - it is not just isolated to this company. Being ultra negative and taking into account the loss of London Midland in H2 lets say rail profits halve next year. Yes I'm taking a very bearish shorters view but this still gives full year profit of £120M and EPS of 166p.Even in this worst case scenario P/E is still only 9.3 with expansion into Germany, Singapore and Ireland to come.I can not see any justification for such a large drop todayThe balance sheet is also better with shareholder equity rising to £227M
numberbiter
07 Sep 2017
Re: The darkn1ght Top, I am talking about getting rid of the guard on all trains, without being willing to negotiate. If Southern (part of the Go-Ahead group) had negotiated with the Unions everything could have been settled a year ago. For example, on the Southern route I take to London, we have had driver only trains for years; previous Union discussions here resolved everything.The routes where a guard is needed is where long trains pass through stations with a distinct curve, meaning the driver cannot possibly see the whole train. If the company were willing to discuss this with the Unions (who after all are promoting passenger safety) then we would not have a problem. Personally, I would not invest in a company that puts politics in front of creating shareholder value.
Thedarkkn1ght
07 Sep 2017
P/E 7.5; Dividend 6.6% numberbiter - I have actually done very well trading this share thank you very much!Yes a very disappointing day today but an over-reaction IMO and a chance to accumulateThe fundamentals show this is undervalued by a long way.A P/E of 7.5 is very low and a dividend of 6.6% is superb and is covered twice by earnings.The final dividend in November of 71.91p alone is worth 4.64% at these pricesHistoric P/E is 13 which puts the SP around 2691p - almost double the current SP.They also have solid plans to expand abroad and thus reduce reliance on Britain which should bear fruit in coming years.The bus business continues to perform well.Finally the SP is at 5 year lowsCould see a lot of upside here - in the near term looking at 1800p+
LINTON5
07 Sep 2017
Support I see it at 1483 on the charts guys. Will wait patiently
Topalov
07 Sep 2017
Re: The darkn1ght Which irrelevant point are you talking about?
numberbiter
11 Aug 2017
Re: FRANCHISE LOST On the 25 August 2016 when the price was 1,966p I suggested this company had woeful management and that investors should stay clear. I repeated this sell recommendation on 22 September 2016 when the price was 2,027p. I wrote then, "How Southern Railway (part of Go-Ahead Group) keep their franchises beggars belief". On 3 October 2016 I repeated the strong sell message, this time at 2,045p. Finally, on 26 January 2017 when the price was 2,192p I tried to warn investors yet again that this company was poorly managed and therefore was a strong sell.On 15 March 2017 the 'Darkkight' posted that I had a personal vendetta against the company and two days later at 1,736p he recommended a 'strong buy'. Well the thing is that I don't have a vendetta against the company, but I recognise a poor management team when I see one. Their overall performance has been awful and it is just as bad when the unions are not taking strike action. You simply cannot run a company on the basis that the timetable can only operate if drivers agree to give up their rest days. You really cannot expect drivers to work unlimited overtime.It seems that even the Department of Transport have realised what a poor performer this company really is and have taken away a franchise at the earliest opportunity. Given that Southern's appalling record contributed to the Conservatives losing their overall majority, I cannot see Grayling's support for the company being maintained. So we can expect the company to lose franchises when they expire and the share price to fall further. Of course the price may. Increase in the short term as investors forget how bad the company is and think they are getting a bargain, but long term this can only go down. Even at today's price of 1,715p,
Blanketstacker
10 Aug 2017
FRANCHISE LOST GOG have lost the London Midland Franchise. Should see a drop today, perhaps presenting a buying opportunity.(Financial impact will be limited).
II Editor
23 Jun 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: A big dividend and solid credentials "Is the market jaundiced towards this mid-cap rail and bus share LSE:GOG:Go-Ahead due to chronic strikes taking attention off underlying financial strength?Its chart shows a couple of big steps down in market price during the last year or so, from ..."[link]
Topalov
24 May 2017
Re: Advice please I read the following in the forum section of today's Cityam:''Labour says the shareholders would receive government bonds in exchange for their equity'If Labour win you will see a major drop in all UK shares and the pound. Gilt yields will probably rise resulting in a decrease in their value.
