Professor Fang
12 Apr 2018
Re: competition I'd send your complaint to Whitbread rather than GNK Susanne.
susanne9
12 Apr 2018
competition Come on GK get your act together ! I called with my grandchildren at Lincoln Beefeater on Tues lunchtime - the pub was full, we had to wait for a table. Maitre D Grumpy, Food very average, decor awful - There's plenty of scope out there for giving a good experience, but you have to be on the ball.
Grill Bimsie
12 Apr 2018
Pheww... could have been worse Market seems to like it. Up 9% at 08
5.Cheers,
gamesinvestor
12 Apr 2018
Re: PRE-CLOSE TRADING STATEMENT seems to have been quite well received for now at least with the stock up 8.67% as I type this.Games
idontwanttolose
12 Apr 2018
PRE-CLOSE TRADING STATEMENT PRE-CLOSE TRADING STATEMENTPub Company like-for-like (LFL) sales for the 49 weeks to 8th April were -1.8%. The weather over the last 12 weeks impacted trading, particularly in our destination food-led pubs, and on an underlying basis, excluding the impact of snow, LFL sales in the year-t0-date were -1.2%. Both drink and accommodation LFL sales were ahead of last year.Trading over Easter was strong with LFL sales up 2.8% against the Easter weekend last year, helped by strong sporting fixtures, especially football and boxing.The targeted £10m investment we made in the second half of the year to strengthen our value for money, customer service and quality is starting to positively impact on trading, despite the continued challenging market backdrop.We continue to reposition Pub Company to drive growth going forward; we will complete the exit from Fayre & Square by the financial year end; we opened nine new pubs over the year; and we invested core and brand conversion capex in 292 pubs. After 48 weeks, LFL net profit in Pub Partners was -0.3% while own-brewed volumes in Brewing & Brands were -0.7%, ahead of the UK ale market* at -3.1%.We remain on track to deliver targeted cost savings of £40-45m, we will have spent c. £160m in the full year in ensuring our estate remains well invested and our disposal proceeds are likely to be ahead of expectations at c. £120m following the sale of three high value leasehold pubs.As a result, we expect full year profit before tax and exceptionals to be in the range of £240-245m.With our high quality portfolio of pubs, excellent team, strong balance sheet and sustainable dividend, we remain well placed to withstand the external market challenges and deliver long-term value to our shareholders.*BBPA May 2017 to February 2018Further to my previous postCurrent Short positions:AQR Capital Management, LLC 1.40% 0.09% 5 Mar 2018BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, National Association 0.66% -0.04% 8 Mar 2018DSAM Partners 1.01% 0.10% 16 Mar 2018GLG Partners LP 1.26% -0.04% 10 Apr 2018GSA Capital Partners LLP 0.92% 0.11% 6 Apr 2018Henderson Global Investors 0.52% 0.05% 6 Mar 2018Marshall Wace LLP 2.59% -0.01% 5 Apr 2018Systematica Investments Limited 0.70% 0.10% 13 Mar 2018WorldQuant, LLC 0.99% -0.05% 4 Apr 2018Total 10.05%
Hydrogen Economy
09 Apr 2018
Re: Short sellers IDWTLSome one has made a mistake!!! 15.8% or 9.99% short?????The reported short interests are 9.99%, but that doesn't include short positions of less than 0.5% which there are likely to be a number.Shares on loan are reported for end March are at 16.86% by euroclear site, in Baker05's earlier post. Shares on loan suggests that they have been sold short but not certain.That suggests shorts are in the range 9.99-16.86% Either way, it's a lot which is not good, but does present the possibility of a rapid rise in the event of good news putting a squeeze on the short holders. A clean exit from Loch Fyne with decent price on that some other disposals would help, but a tough market.Unclear what shorter's target is here, a divi cut or are they betting on a more serious outcome. H2
idontwanttolose
08 Apr 2018
Re: Short sellers Some one has made a mistake!!! 15.8% or 9.99% short?????[link] her ‘Inside the City’ column for the Sunday Times, Sabah Meddings looked ahead to Greene King’s trading update due this week, noting that investors would be holding their breath at this stage - and hoping not to be shedding tears “into their pints of Old Speckled Hen”.Meddings said shareholders in the brewing group have had a few bitter pills to swallow in recent years, with its share price now half what it was at its peak in December 2015.The company, with chief executive Rooney Anand at the helm, was not shying away from admitting trading was tough at the moment, with the firm expecting to take a £600m hit in the current year from a number of factors beyond its control - higher business rates and the national living wage chiefly among them.Meddings said Anand has also had a year of unpredictable weather to contend with - a miserable summer, followed by a snowy, icy winter and a wet Easter, all likely to hit Greene King where it hurts.But some of its injuries have been self-inflicted, with the acquisition of Spirit Pub Company in 2015 leaving the group with its pants down amid a severe downturn in casual dining, thanks to the inclusion of the restaurant chain Fayre & Square.Anand wasn’t sitting on his hands there, however, taking the axe to the Fayre & Square brand and converting the properties into classic Greene King boozers.He was also implementing a £10m action plan, which includes price cuts, along with plans to save between £40m and £45m by slashing the company’s overheads.The firm’s fish restaurant chain, Loch Fyne, was also up for grabs.Meddings said some of Greene King’s fans in the City remained hopeful that value could be squeezed out of these asset sales, along with the possibility for an activist investor to rustle up some activity.However, she also noted that there was only so much a company can raise through disposals, with a large part of any proceeds likely to go to Greene King’s listed bondholders - those bonds being secured against the chain’s pubs.With those headwinds in play, Meddings said it was less than surprising that short-sellers were moving in, with 15.8% of the firm’s shares out on loan according to IHS Markit, up from 12% at the start of January.Greene King was indeed trading on a rather attractive 6.8% dividend yield, thanks to the beating it has taken on the stock market, with a price-to-earnings multiple of 8.4x making it look cheap.comparison, Mitchells & Butlers - which doesn’t pay a dividend - was at a seriously heftier 17.4x.But Meddings said Greene King was cheap for a reason, with 13-year CEO Anand “fiercely protective” of the dividend, while the market suggested he might have to cut such rich distributions.“The 53-year-old once boasted that investors ‘know they are going to get it straight from me’,” Sabah Meddings wrote.“There may be a case for investing in Greene King - it has a good track record and a bullish management team - but it may be a little early to jump on board. Avoid.”
Blanketstacker
08 Apr 2018
Re: Telegraph- Questor But the short interest is still at 9.99%.
Old Eyes
06 Apr 2018
Re: Trading Statement on 12th April I'm just hoping for a long hot summer, to get those beer gardens packed to the rafters, and a successful campaign for England at the World Cup will boost the takings at the bar further. Those two events will see a good recovery for the share price, of that I'm certain.In reality, however...
Hydrogen Economy
05 Apr 2018
Trading Statement on 12th April Pre-close trading statement for the 49 weeks to 8th April 2018 on Thursday 12th April 2018.GNK making another attempt to pull out of the dive its been in for the last couple of years, it has tried a couple of times this year only to fall back further. News on 12th. could give a clue about this time.H2
nk1999
01 Apr 2018
Telegraph- Questor "Questor: Solid foundations mean it’s too soon to call time on pub firm Greene King.... The FTSE 250 group has 2,900 pubs, hotels and restaurants in its portfolio under brands including Hungry Horse and Chef & Brewer.In addition, it has a heritage of brewing great beer brands: Greene King IPA, Old Speckled Hen, Abbot Ale and Belhaven Best.Now the company is subject to a saloon debate all of its own. City bulls and bears cannot agree: is Greene King capable of pulling through the current consumer slowdown, or will it be dragged down further by its borrowings that date back three years to the £774m acquisition of the Spirit Pub Company?So far the bears have banged loudest on the bar. Greene King shares have had a poor start to the year, tumbling 17pc in 2018.They are changing hands at less than half the price of their peak in December 2015. The company’s trading update at the end of January did not lighten the mood............Greene King is not suffering alone. Rising business rates, the minimum wage, and commodity and utility costs have squeezed margins across the industry.Anand has forecast an extra £60m of bills dropping on his doormat this year but is on track to offset most of that through cost savings of between £40m and £45m.What is ironic is that serving food was once seen as the saviour of the pubs industry but Greene King’s trading has been softest in its “value food” pubs, which analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate account for 18pc of underlying group earnings.The trouble is that consumers are spoilt for choice. So-called “fast-casual dining” has exploded and well-known chains have begun to take steps to rein in over-expansion.If the going gets tougher, it could sell more pubs to pay down borrowings – although this would dilute earningsHence the closures announced by pizzeria Prezzo, burger seller Byron and Jamie Oliver’s empire.For its part, Greene King is scrapping its cheap and cheerful Fayre & Square food brand and selling its small Loch Fyne seafood chain.What is also notable is the well-publicised decline of drinks-led pubs, otherwise known as the local. It has gone so far in some towns that Greene King is often the last man standing.Young consumers might prop up the bar less and drinking increasingly takes place in the home, but this point alone is worth the bulls getting a round in. So too is the consensus that the group’s dividend, yielding a thirst-quenching 7pc, is safe.In November, rival group Mitchells & Butlers scrapped its interim payout and the All Bar One owner said it would keep its full-year plans under review. In contrast, Canaccord forecasts Greene King’s divi is covered 1.9 times and cover is growing.The company has £2.3bn of gross debt, but showed last year it wanted greater balance sheet flexibility with plans to refinance £189m of Spirit bonds at a one-off cost of £43m. If the going gets tougher, it could sell more pubs to pay down borrowings – although this would dilute earnings.Morgan Stanley raised the prospect of an activist investor arriving on the shareholder register of any of the pub companies, as they have elsewhere in the leisure sector at coffee giant Whitbread and Madame Tussauds owner Merlin.That could be a catalyst for asset sales, debt restructuring or more sector consolidation.Questor has followed Greene King closely, recommending in December for readers to sell the shares. Since then, they have declined 11pc and at this level are worth another look. Pub landlords and restaurateurs face a tough few years ahead but trading on eight times next year’s forecast earnings, it is too early to call time on this particular operator. Buy."
gamesinvestor
16 Mar 2018
Green Light [link] at Morgan Stanley took a look at pub group Greene King on Friday, saying the firm's decision to support its dividend meant it was time to "Greene light" an upgrade for the brewer and landlord's shares.Morgan Stanley upgraded to 'overweight' from 'equal-weight' and upped its price target to 640p from 610p."""Games
bamboozled
07 Mar 2018
Re: Continually falling SP Disappointing and frustrating market and shame on the shorters..I originally bought these around 2010 at about 430p,so nearly the same price after 8 odd years......at least I've been collecting the divis and vouchers along the way too but I also topped up a lot higher up than this. No crystallising losses for me though, holding on grimly for next few years!
The White Rider
07 Mar 2018
Re: Continually falling SP Short position continues to build and is now at 8.38%. No wonder sp is falling. Just sitting tight at present and collecting the dividend. But yes, it's not pretty.
Old Eyes
07 Mar 2018
Continually falling SP Now that the SP has dropped below £5 a share, I thought I'd look back at where it stood for the last few years.closing prices6 March 2014 - 912.506 March 2015 - 887.507 March 2016 - 900.006 March 2017 - 683.006 March 2018 - 490.006 March 2019 - ????Doesn't paint a good picture, does it? It's enough to drive a man/woman/etc to drink...
