Greene King Live Discussion

Old_Eyes 13 Aug 2018

Lunch They’ve done away with it? That is a shame. While it was a small saving, it was, as you say, a great way to promote the pub chain while also getting a little back. Getting concerned by this new low. Was fine with it around £5-£6, but the trend over the last 12 months is just one way.

Gamesinvestor1 07 Aug 2018

18 Pubs close a week HE – Good response m8, I hadn’t gone into that level of detail, but it’s comforting that they have earned a profit on the pub closures. Have to sit this one out for a long time I’ afraid - let’s hope the divi isn’t hammered. Games

Hydrogen_Economy 07 Aug 2018

18 Pubs close a week Games “Well is this a good or bad thing for GNK — provided it holds it all together, surely the competition is dwindling?” Well that’s the environment, many pubs are in poor locations, wrong layout etc so there are inevitable closures. GNK is buying/building new and at same time closing many to match changes in trends, food, real ale etc. Overall it probably helps to eliminate some capacity but it remains a tough market. Guess it helps to realize value from the estate to pay down debt. 2017 FY report shows this is core to the planning:- Core estate capital expenditure was £126.0m… There were 11 new pub openings during the year. We disposed of 65 pubs in Pub Company, 54 pubs in Pub Partners and three closed pubs, which led to a profit on disposal of £3.4m and raised proceeds of £88.6m. Outlook In Pub Company, we anticipate opening c.10 pubs and disposing of 50-60 pubs In Pub Partners, we expect to dispose of 40-50 pubs. These disposals will continue to improve the quality of the estate while generating cash for other uses across the business

Gamesinvestor1 07 Aug 2018

18 Pubs close a week [link] Well is this a good or bad thing for GNK — provided it holds it all together, surely the competition is dwindling? Tax – That’s the killer – and business rates (which is a tax) as is corporation tax and all the other taxes but not in name. Games

frog_in_a_tree 31 Jul 2018

Lunch That’s a shame Games. I had one until recently but don’t know if it has timed out. My Marston’s card is still alive. Both shares held through ii. Cheers, Frog

Gamesinvestor1 31 Jul 2018

Lunch Hi F - I used to m8, but I can’t get it renewed. I wrote the secretary and they flatly refused to supply it. I explained it was a great promotional thing to have shareholders take family and friends to Greene King pubs and they should even promote it as a marketing idea ahead of all the other pub chains, Wasted opportunity methinks. Most people have pooled investments and not individual share certificates, so it’s almost impossible to get these shareholder benefits anymore. Games

frog_in_a_tree 31 Jul 2018

Lunch Hi Games, Did you use the shareholder discount scheme for your lunch? Cheers, Frog in a tree

Gamesinvestor1 31 Jul 2018

Lunch Supporting the cause guys, just had lunch in a Greene King pub – very nice, great value and helped on it’s way by some IPA. It hasn’t rung through the tills yet, hence the share price has stayed down – give it time. Games

Gamesinvestor1 30 Jul 2018

Ooohps Johnny, The hysteria is astonishing , or not, given we have seen it all before. After the Cambridge Analytica debacle, Facebook got hammered, so I backed up the truck. Over a matter of a few weeks the stock climbs 26%. It’s now down 22% – so still marginally in the black. Just bought some more lol !

johnnygibber 27 Jul 2018

Ooohps Having read Dan Reingolds book - Confessions of a Wall St. analyst, it appears analysts are a conflicted bunch - wherever they are located. I don’t think any had a ‘sell’ on Facebook before the -20% drop yesterday. I would take any opinion with a HUGE Pinch of salt from either side… Must be great to effectively BS for a living, making people believe you know the future… GLA - ETF index funds, (and the 20% off GNK voucher for me ) JG

PhilipJD 19 Jul 2018

Ooohps GNK mentioned at [link] Stifel have upgraded to Buy, say there are no issues with covering the divi and recent trading showing a LFL increase. Who to believe?

Old_Eyes 18 Jul 2018

Ooohps Gamesinvestor1: The first eight weeks of the year “may be as good as it gets” for the pubco, the analysts said, amid scorching weather and the boost from the royal wedding and the World Cup - “even in one of the best periods for the pub trade in recent history, Greene King did not achieve adequate LFL growth to offset cost increases and grow earnings”.""" I agree. Blockquote The first eight weeks of the year “may be as good as it gets” for the pubco, the analysts said, amid scorching weather and the boost from the royal wedding and the World Cup - “even in one of the best periods for the pub trade in recent history, Greene King did not achieve adequate LFL growth to offset cost increases and grow earnings”.""" Surely it is too soon to see what effect the WC has had on the performance of the business?

Gamesinvestor1 17 Jul 2018

Ooohps Gamesinvestor1: However, the analysts told clients they thought this is being “disingenuous with shareholders” as “in reality” the refinancing of £279m of Spirit debt last year cost an “exceptional” cash amount of nearly £50m. This looks like BS to me. I can’t see how the refinancing of £279M of debt can cost £50M – They seems to have made this figure up, haven’t they? Games

Gamesinvestor1 17 Jul 2018

Ooohps “”"Shares in Greene King were sent lower on Tuesday as Berenberg reiterated its view that the pub company was an investment “value trap”, with underlying trading remaining poor and profit “likely to go backwards again” in 2018. Analysts at the German bank, repeating their ‘sell’ recommendation on the shares and 430p target price, said management’s debt refinancing “appears to be destroying shareholder value in order to flatter the P&L”. However, the analysts told clients they thought this is being “disingenuous with shareholders” as “in reality” the refinancing of £279m of Spirit debt last year cost an “exceptional” cash amount of nearly £50m. As management refused to reveal the interest rate on its new £350m revolving credit facility used to fund the refinancing, it has been assumed at less than 2.5% in order to have created any value. “Given even the company’s cheapest secured debt costs circa 4%, we consider it more likely that it has destroyed circa £25m-30m of value,” the analysts said. In the Berenberg view, maintaining the dividend at current levels “is not in the best medium-term interests of the business”, with the refinancing of the Spirit debt making the dividend cover “look more favourable” and to remove debt securitisation on more pubs, allowing them to be sold. “We think both of those are indicative of the challenging financial position Greene King is in now,” the analysts said, pointing to poor underlying trading and leverage at 4.2 times, making it hard to see sense in the business continuing to pay £103m of dividends a year when it will only generate free cash flow of £50-60m. The first eight weeks of the year “may be as good as it gets” for the pubco, the analysts said, amid scorching weather and the boost from the royal wedding and the World Cup - “even in one of the best periods for the pub trade in recent history, Greene King did not achieve adequate LFL growth to offset cost increases and grow earnings”.""" Games

Gamesinvestor1 17 Jul 2018

Beer Crisis Reminds me of that old black and white film called Whisky Galore. The coastal Scottish town runs dry of whisky in the depression. One night in a storm a cargo vessel gets strewn on the rocks and guess what the cargo was? – Whisky, thousands of casks of the stuff. The locals store it in cellars, holes, water bottles, anywhere to avoid the customs men who come searching for it. No beer sounds worse though !! Games