NewBill1703
16 Jun 2019
Is there any point in this Gamesinvestor1: Our old nemesis LK is still on the FT site, having a fun pop at me for selling Unilever at 4350 and it’s now at 4970… As for GNK – is there growth path for these pubs? Good to hear the Ancient Mariner is still sailing strong - and hard to criticise his faith in Unilever. Truth is, it has been carried on the crest of the Momentum wave - at the expense of Value - which has continued far further, and for quite a bit longer, than I would have thought possible. The market continues to buy stocks that have already gone up, no matter how expensive, and sell stocks that have gone down, no matter how cheap. And of course, the success of this strategy becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy - until it stops working. It will do one day, and the scale of the retracement - the inexorable inevitability of reversion to the mean - will be all the greater. BUT as to when that day might be - and how much further the current valuation gap could stretch - we are in the dark… I am on the wrong side of this, of course - alongside others of much greater fame (if not, necessarily, skill) such as Mr Woodford. The difference being - I can tough it out, the chance of my funds being withdrawn being much lower (unless I get REALLY hacked off with my own poor performance), whereas things look fairly bleak for Woody. But it would of course be entirely the wrong thing to change tack now - though it would probably be the perfect catalyst for the market turn! And when it does turn, the likes of GNK will be reappraised and rerated - and the collective hordes will think twice at paying 22x forward earnings for Unilever, earnings which are already flattered by a currency boost which probably can’t last either. Until then, it will be jolly shanties for the old salt - and who would begrudge him those?
Gamesinvestor1
13 Jun 2019
5.24% drop? Can’t see any news – except Blackrock reduced their holding on the 10th. Games
Gamesinvestor1
13 Jun 2019
Is there any point in this So far so good Bill, for whatever reason GNK has taken a 4% bath this morning and PZC Cussons likewise - moving both to IUKD has worked – but it’s far too early to tell. Our old nemesis LK is still on the FT site, having a fun pop at me for selling Unilever at 4350 and it’s now at 4970. Beggars belief with the current growth trajectory of Unilever and it’s move to focus on personal care seems to be in a very crowded and “under price pressure†market. Still the new boy (albeit 30 years at Unilever) seems not to have acknowledged that the internet exists yet. I look at the fast growth at companies like Estee Lauder and newer blog viral start up’s and I think they are eating big chunks of the market. As for GNK – is there growth path for these pubs? Games
NewBill1703
08 Jun 2019
Is there any point in this Gamesinvestor1: The UK market is now back where it was almost 19 years ago, yet the earnings of the constituents are significantly higher… So in the case of IUKD, as one example and there are many other tracker type vehicles, the 5 year fall off is also higher at 27% – a little more than the 25% we might hope for with GNK. So do you chose the spread of 51 shares in IUKD offering 7% yield and a possible 27% gain to return to it’s high or a single stock like GNK with a 5% yield, still high debts, questionable growth and a possible return of up to 25%? Games - I have seen some (I think authoritative) recent analysis which calculates the current “UK market Brexit discount†at 25%. In relative terms, against both history and other world markets. So that would be pretty consistent with your figures here. In simple terms, both the UK market in general and GNK specifically are too cheap - though of course, as we know, both can stay “cheap†for a while. However, on any long-term view, I would say both (or either) are perfectly reasonable risk/reward investments.
paddingtonbear
07 Jun 2019
Silence - over and out! Hello Games. I admire the logic and the bravery to carry out the revamp … most people seem to drift on in the hope/expectation it will come right in the end. Some five years ago I started to re-build the SIPP portfolio for my approaching retirement, so more than 80% in diverse investment trusts and REITs currently. Of the rest, some in bonds and cash, plus my play area of 15/20 individual high yielding shares and goldminers.
Gamesinvestor1
07 Jun 2019
Silence - over and out! Paddy, it wasn’t so much about the bear, more the realisation that the opportunity cost might be better served elsewhere. Indeed I did buy at 7XX and with divis it’s a bit of a wash over a couple of years. It was a mistake to buy into a company with such high debts and low ROCE – it will never make money long term comparatively I think. So on balance, and often it’s also a mistake to hang onto something on the basis you should never sell unless in profit, I decided a 7% yield on IUKD is a better option - only time will tell. I’ve also been going through my portfolio and weeding out anything that doesn’t now fit my criteria and won’t be held for the future. Most have gone at a profit, a couple like GNK and CNA not so. But still if I don’t believe in it, I’m better parking the money in a broad tracker until such time I have conviction in summat. I’m mindful of guys like Nick Train selling out - he very rarely sells anything, that coupled with Anand leaving and the general poor investment profile of the pub trade over the last 10 years and bingo ! Good Luck - It may well reach 800p once again, but then as indicated, so might the index recover to the same level. Games
Armageddon
06 Jun 2019
Silence - over and out! Gamesinvestor1: I decided to leave the ship just before close and shifted the lot into IUKD – Good luck guys, I’ll still drink the odd pint of IPA to keep your spirits up Don’t blame you for leaving l. Five weeks since the big drop week in late April, and still struggling to recoup 50% of that week. Not great. I think the buyers since are people averaging down, rather than confident buyers.
paddingtonbear
06 Jun 2019
Silence - over and out! Hello Games, surprised to see you throwing your teddy out the pram on this long-standing shareholding, although I recall you bought a while back at 7xx. Obviously I am severely opposed to cruelty to bears! I plan to review this share after next results (you indicate these are due end of June) and also see what the new boss has to say about the future path to glory and the viability of the well covered dividend. Everything from sell to increase holding on the table for now. I really hope you followed me out of Centrica whilst it was still in triple figures. Atb, PB.
Gamesinvestor1
04 Jun 2019
Silence - over and out! Deathly silence on the last topics – I guess all are happy that GNK is on the right growth trajectory and all is well with the CEO on the way out, but the ship will sail as before. I decided to leave the ship just before close and shifted the lot into IUKD – Good luck guys, I’ll still drink the odd pint of IPA to keep your spirits up. Games
Gamesinvestor1
04 Jun 2019
OK third post - Loch Fyne closing On doing a tad of the old research and trying to find out how well Loch Fyne is or isn’t doing, I came across two sites - Hertford, and Guidford, that are closing down. Not sure how wide spread this is, but are we in for a shock write down in the near future here? [link] Games
Gamesinvestor1
04 Jun 2019
And they don't listen Also after several attempts at communication with management about properly harnessing their shareholders as ambassadors of GNK and having them as a free sales force they seem incredibly incapable of taking things on board. It’s an annoyance to moi, that I couldn’t get them to send a simple booklet to take friends and family and business associates to the GNK establishments on an incentive – but they chose to ignore it on the basis that they didn’t have the staff – incredible. Games - Not that this nullifies the arguments in my previous post mind!
Gamesinvestor1
04 Jun 2019
Is there any point in this Finding it hard to find good companies outside of the core set I intend to hold. But for the want of not keeping things too narrow I’m constantly in search. Thinking about GNK – is there any point in holding this in preference to a simple (or not so simple) ETF or tracker fund? GNK has recovered quite some from the depths of 450 ish back in 2018, but still short of it’s highs back in 2016 at 800+p. Hoping for a return to that offers a potential upside of 25% assuming we believe the company can ever be worth 800p with growth rates at 1% and return on capital well below 10%. The yield on this is just over 5%, but should the next set of numbers look like a smaller growth next time, maybe that will be under threat? – Maybe not from a cut immediately, but from the possibility of it growing. If you compare this with a dividend ETF like IUKD for example it has a yield at just under 7% - next payment 14th June (GNK is August). OK you might argue that GNK has this nominal 25% upside to go with the 55 divi and that can’t be the case for IUKD can it? Well I don’t know, and I hope you’ve not all gone to sleep yet but these stats seems to make sense:- The UK market is now back where it was almost 19 years ago, yet the earnings of the constituents are significantly higher. So in the case of IUKD, as one example and there are many other tracker type vehicles the 5 year fall off is also 27% – a little more than the 25% we might hope for with GNK. So do you chose the spread of 51 shares in IUKD offering 7% yield and a possible 27% gain to return to it’s high or a single stock like GNK with a 5% yield, still high debts, uestionable growth and a possible return of up to 25%? One final interesting point, the FT has the range of analysts prices at low 450 – Mid - 690 and High 800. Any thoughts? Games
sueneave9
30 Apr 2019
Trading Update All this looks pretty good to me considering the state of things in the UK but shares dive over 6% Typical!
Gamesinvestor1
30 Apr 2019
Trading Update Update doesn’t look too bad, yet again though the sock is hammered - profits are harder to come by, even with increased sales. PRE-CLOSE TRADING STATEMENT Trading statement for the 52 weeks to 28th April 2019 Pub Company LFL sales for the 52 weeks to 28th April were up 2.9%, ahead of the market1 and reflecting the successful programmes in place to drive industry-leading value, service and quality for our customers. We saw good drink volume growth across Pub Company and, in particular, in our 1,000 drink-led Greene King local pubs, which recorded LFL sales of 4.6%. LFL sales for the last 16 weeks were up 2.4%. Easter LFL sales were up 4.6% against last year’s Easter weekend, helped by the good weather and particularly strong trading from Chef & Brewer, which recorded LFL sales of 15.3%. Pub Partners LFL net income for the 52 weeks was up 1.6% while LFL profit was down 1.4%. In Brewing & Brands, total beer volumes were up 0.9% and own-brewed volumes were down 3.4% against a UK ale market2 down 4.2%. During the second half of the financial year, we made further progress on our debt refinancing plan. By the year end, we had repaid £393m, or 51% of the Spirit debenture, while we tapped the Greene King securitisation for £250m at 3.6%, creating headroom within our revolving credit facility for future bond repayments from the debenture. We expect to limit net cost inflation this year to between £10-20m and for full year profit before tax, non-underlying and exceptional items to be between £244m and £247m. We are broadly on track to deliver our disposals programme and new builds/single site acquisitions for the year. Our preliminary results will be announced on 27th June 2019, at which time we will also update on IFRS 16. Games
Gamesinvestor1
26 Apr 2019
704p GNK Didn’t think I’d see over 700p again well at least Smothers thinks it’s worth more than 655p 08-Mar-19 Buy Richard Smothers 655.00p 5,770 £37,793.50 15-Feb-19 Buy Richard Smothers 599.17p 4,000 £23,966.80 Games - when do I push the red button?
