susanne9
30 Nov 2017
Marstons Marstons up 10% plus today - Wetherspoons doing well - Come on Greene King ! Get your act together!
Alan Tittymarsh
30 Nov 2017
Re: Tears of rage Concerning results. Net debt up from £2074m to £2119m. 'Strong cash flow' they claim in the headlines. Yet int net operating cash flow is down from £126m to £97m, a 23% drop yoy, so total bs claim. Taking core capital expenditure of £60m that leaves FCF at £37m. They certainly can't afford to maintain a full div, yet have stubbornly decided to continue to pay one at the same rate. With the level of debt continuing to rise slowly and falling consumer expenditure, something has to give eventually.
gamesinvestor
30 Nov 2017
Re: Tears of rage Well it dropped 7% and now down 5% so perhaps it's going to level out.The situation isn't going to change for a long time until Greene King reduces exposure to some of the less profitable pubs and the government wakes up (if it ever does) to the punitive nature of business rates where pub groups pay a disproportionate share of the over all tax compared to the revenue and profits.Games -- I'm afraid I was far too early buying this at 7XX -- Oh well sit tight, it's going to be a few years to hold this one I think -- the divi is safe for now, but the debt isn't pretty --- big mistake buying Spirit me thinks!
The White Rider
27 Nov 2017
Re: Tears of rage Let's just hope the likely bad news is already priced in. GNK down by c30% in twelve months.
lotcangorong
27 Nov 2017
Tears of rage D Telegraph: Greene King will be crying into its beer this week when it reveals a drop in profits, as pubs face rising costs on several fronts.On Thursday it is expected to reveal adjusted pre-tax profits fell more than 8pc in the first half to £127m, on revenues of just over £1bn.Broker Investec said demand for food at some of Greene King’s pubs had taken a knock. It has downgraded its expectations for the full year too.The Bury St Edmunds-based group warned in September that sales in the pubs it directly manages had fallen 1.2pc and cited “unprecedented industry cost pressures”. Inflation, business rates, the living wage and the apprenticeship levy are all making business tougher. Deutsche Bank said recent data from the sector showed a deteriorating sales trend, with supplier price rises proving difficult to pass on to hard-pressed drinkers.The downbeat predictions come after a tough week for the pub industry which saw Mitchells & Butlers cut its interim dividend because of fears about consumer spending and Brexit uncertainty. Shares in the company fell as much as 13pc and even dragged Greene King’s down by 5pc for a short time.Simon Emeny, Fuller’s chief executive, was equally dour in spite of his company producing a rise in sales and profits, claiming he could “not remember a time when we have faced such an array of additional costs”. Philip Hammond did offer a small boost to pubs in last week’s Budget by linking future rises in business rates to the consumer prices index, rather than the steeper retail prices index, from next year.This should reduce costs but has not silenced calls from the sector for a major overhaul of rates.Marston’s also reports full-year results this week and adjusted profits are expected to be up 2.5pc at £82.4m.
II Editor
22 Nov 2017
NEW ARTICLE: 10 contrarian mid-cap shares for patient value investors "One of the big stockmarket stories of 2017 has been the spectacular performance of smaller, growth-oriented shares. The @GB:ASX:AIM All Share index has soared by more than 20% this year, casting a shadow over the usually solid mid - and large-cap ..."[link]
johnnygibber
22 Nov 2017
Re: Brexit = prohibition ?? Hi Gamesjust reduced AAPL from 5 to 3% of wad.Iphone X ? not many q's in Germany - personally I think 1000 Euro plus for a phone/text/internet box is a bit mental - not a flop though.. P/FCF and P/S above 5 yr averages by around 30% - still holding though cos of all that cash.Upped BRKB too to 3%. - cheapest fund I've got 
CheersJG
gamesinvestor
22 Nov 2017
Re: Brexit = prohibition ?? "Flogged some AAPL...gulp..."Johnny -- still hanging on to mine at (quick check) 2.33% of my wad.80% up so far and the yield on the original purchase is quite handsome.Do you think the iPhone X is going to be a flop then?The forward P/E is less at 14.37 but still it's income is still heavily dependent on iphone sales.The service element has grown to nearly 16% of sales.Q4 Apple Revenue jumped 12% on this time last year.Games -- hanging on to Apple and Greene King
Clitheroekid
21 Nov 2017
Re: Brexit = prohibition ?? "I think there's an old adage of yield and PE both @ 7, then fill yer boots .. or summat.."Unfortunately, these days a high yield and a low P/E can be a strong signal of something going wrong - a value trap. Look at Carillion and Provident Financial as examples. Whilst I've no reason to think GNK are in difficulty the fact that the market doesn't seem to think they are good value is a danger signal for me.The fact that shorting has risen from 2% in June to over 5% now is also a worry. I've found recently that this is a good indicator of a share price that's likely to be weak. Professional shorters have far more access to information than private PI's like I do, and I think it's dangerous to bet against them.As someone who's been sitting on the sidelines considering buying some GNK I'm not convinced that this is as low as they'll go, so I'm going to watch and wait some more.
Professor Fang
20 Nov 2017
Re: Brexit = prohibition ?? Down nearly 50% in 2 years - things can't be that bad can they?? Bought another 1000 today at 511p.
johnnygibber
20 Nov 2017
Brexit = prohibition ?? Blimey - 2x covered divi for next year, and around 6.5% yield...Forward PE of 7.7 too...I think there's an old adage of yield and PE both @ 7, then fill yer boots .. or summat..So I max'd out to 5% of my dosh - now the same as RDSB and NG - at least Shell doing OK.Flogged some AAPL...gulp....Was considering a deep dive of FCF, ROI, ROE, DDM, MRCVS etc. but it's a pub chain for gawds sake... that's cheap...GLAJG
Dave the Tyke
07 Nov 2017
Re: Vouchers stopped. After submitting a complaint HSBC have now sent vouchers to me. They were not destroyed as originally suggested, but put in the hands of a 'Custodian' who has released them to me as a result of the complaint.I have no idea whether this is a one-off situation but I will certainly find out if I am still a Greene King shareholder next year.
gamesinvestor
21 Oct 2017
Re: New Menu Moongazer, I'm pleased you enjoyed your evening, however, your reference to dogs sends me cold as I'm hoping there is no serious correlation with GNK the business.Games -- Who also has a border terrier!
moongazer
16 Oct 2017
New Menu My wife & I ate at the Castle in Bakewell last week - the new menu was the most interesting one I have seen for a very long time. The quality was good too, and the staff were all most helpful and friendly. the way its a dog friendly pub - dogs can join owners in the stone flagged floor area of the pub (about half of it) and get some dog treats into the bargain.
TX2
16 Oct 2017
Re: Nick Train Yes I think Nick Train is correct,albeit rather late in the day,that GNK essentially overpaid for Spirit.Spirit was I feel a group thrown together in the great pub buying boom in the early years of this century.I suspect the quality of its outlets was inconsistantIt maybe that some of these poorer outlets are seeing trade falls in a competitive market.It is noteworthy that the quality pub groups for example Young & Co,in which I am also a shareholder, still seem to be doing well.However at the present price,well under half the PE of Youngs, I feel this factor is now taken into account & GNK is now a reasonable value buy,hence my recent purchase;but it could be a while before its former rating is regained.
